It’s time for some Saturday night racing for the Cup Series! Last week was an off date for NASCAR due to the Easter holiday which followed the dirt race at Bristol. That gives us two short tracks in a row but I’m not sure how much of the playbook will carry over.
Martinsville is just over a ½-mile long with relatively flat corners with longer straights. If you need a visual just imagine the shape of a paperclip. The shape, as a description fits perfectly as “the paperclip” is the track’s nickname.
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The shape and size dictate that drivers need to stay upfront or they risk falling a lap down. That’s an issue as Martinsville is not the place where jumping back on the lead lap is easy. Tires, fuel, and perfect pit stops will all come into play.
As for favorites, there is some tight bunching at the top of the list. The first three drivers listed below have four of the last five Martinsville wins. The favorite, which is Martin Truex Jr comes in at +100 and he accounts for two of the last three wins at the track. Here are the top-five favorites at +1200 and under to win the Food City Bristol Dirt Race outright according to Intertops.
Martin Truex Jr +100
Chase Elliott +110
Brad Keselowski +120
Denny Hamlin +140
Ryan Blaney +140
Joey Logano +140
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2021 Martinsville Race Preview
Date: Saturday, April 8, 2021, 7:30pm EST
Track: Martinsville Speedway / Ridgeway, Virginia
Type: Oval, Asphalt, 0.526 miles
Race Distance: 500 laps, 263 miles.
Defending Track Winner: Chase Elliott.
TV/Radio: FS1 / MRN
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2021 NASCAR Martinsville Predictions
Chase Elliott +110
Chase Elliott put on a show last year at Martinsville on the way to earning his first NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Elliott led 265 lap and never seemed to be in trouble – even while swapping the lead with Martin Truex Jr. Elliott already has not won a race this season but his past history at Martinsville show that he could change that this weekend.
Denny Hamlin +140
Denny Hamlin last won at Martinsville in 2015. Since then he’s finished 11th or better seven times with three races in a row with 5th or better finishes. His last two trips to Martinsville have not been fantastic as he finished 24th and 11th respectively. Hamlin’s key stat – over the last five races at the paperclip – is the fact that he’s finished on the lead lap four out of five times.
Kyle Busch +240
Kyle Busch has won twice and finished inside the top-ten eight times in his last ten races at Martinsville. During that same period, his average starting position was 8.5 with an average finishing position of 6.0. Meaning? Kyle Busch, going by the stats over ten races at Martinsville, finishes better than he started at this track.
Others to Consider: I like Martin Truex (+100) but only if he and his team remain mistake-free. Truex has back-to-back wins at Martinsville (2019 – 2020) but this year’s team seems to be struggling more even with their win at Phoenix a few weeks ago. Brad Keselowski (+120) has two recent Martinsville wins, but like Truex, his team needs to have a smooth weekend.
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Martin Truex Jr +100
Chase Elliott +110
Brad Keselowski +120
Denny Hamlin +140
Ryan Blaney +140
Joey Logano +140
Kyle Larson +200
Kevin Harvick +240
Kyle Busch +240
William Byron +400
Alex Bowman +500
Kurt Busch +560
Christopher Bell +660
Tyler Reddick +1320
Matt Dibenedetto +1320
Austin Dillon +1600
Aric Almirola +1600
Ryan Newman +2000
Darrell Wallace Jr. +2000
Cole Custer +2000
Erik Jones +2000
Chase Briscoe +2500
Daniel Suarez +2500
Chris Buescher +3000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +3000
Michael McDowell +4000
Ross Chastain +5000
Ryan Preece +10000
Justin Haley +10000
Anthony Alfredo +20000
Corey Lajoie +40000
Josh Bilicki +40000
James Davison +50000
