Both Daytona races are in the rearview mirror but the NASCAR Cup Series stays in Florida one more week. The 2021 running of the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway may not be the season- ending Championship race anymore but that does not change who the favorites are starting with Denny Hamlin at +500.
Hamlin has won at Homestead three times in the Cup Series making him the active driver with the most checkered flags at the track. Kyle Busch has two wins at Homestead but he’s not one of the top-five favorites. Among those favorites, only Kevin Harvick at +600 and Martin Truex at +700 have won at the speedway in the Cup Series.
The most interesting name breaking into the top-five favorites to win the Dixie Vodka 400 this week is Kyle Larson at +800. Larson made his return to NASCAR this season following his departure early in the season last year.
One reason Larson could be favored so high is his past track record at larger tracks. Only one of his six Cup Series wins came on a short track. Here are the top-five favorites at +800 and under at Intertops.
Denny Hamlin +500
Chase Elliott +500
Kevin Harvick +600
Martin Truex Jr +700
Kyle Larson +800
The manufacturing trend continues for the third week. All three, Ford, Chevrolet, and Toyota are represented with the drivers listed above. Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. drive Toyotas for Joe Gibbs Racing. Chase Elliott pilots a Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports while Larson is in a Chevy for Hendrick Motorsports. Kevin Harvick is behind the wheel of a Ford for Stewart – Haas Racing.
2021 Dixie Vodka 400 Preview
Track: Homestead Miami Speedway; Homestead, Florida
Type: 1.5-mile paved banked speedway
Race Distance: 267 laps / 400.5 miles
Defending Winner: Denny Hamlin
TV/Radio: Fox / MRN
Beginners Introduction to Betting on NASCAR
2021 Dixie Vodka 400 Predictions
Martin Truex Jr. +700
Martin Truex Jr won at Homestead in 2017. In three of his last four starts at the track, he has won once and finished second twice. Truex is in the right ride as well according to stats as Toyota’s have crossed the finish line four times in the last six races. Truex has not had a top-ten finish in the past two races so a bounce back in a fast Gibbs car could be his ticket to a second Homestead win.
Kyle Busch +1000
Kyle Busch would like to get a win earlier in the season this year to lock up a playoff spot. He has two wins in the Cup Series and Homestead with his latest coming in 2019. In his last ten Homestead starts he has finished in the top-ten eight times including his two wins. Twenty-five of Busch’s Cup wins have come on 1-2 mile tracks – Homestead is 1.5 miles.
Brad Keselowski +1200
Brad Keselowski has a win at Homestead and probably looks at this week as an opportunity to get things back on track in 2021. His Daytona 500 ended in a last-lap crash with his teammate, Joey Logano, and he spent a bunch of time recovering from mistakes at the Daytona Road Course race last weekend. That being said, he still placed 13th at the Daytona 500 with a chance to win in the closing seconds. And he recovered last week for a 5th place run last week.
Others to Consider: I do like Kyle Larson this weekend but I’m a bit hesitant at +700 because I don’t have a large enough sample of stats to look over yet since his return and being with a different team. Ryan Blaney is very tempting at +1200 as he has had some good runs at Homestead that have not always translated to great finishes. That’s except for last year when he finished third.
2021 Dixie Vodka 400 Odds
Bet on NASCAR props at BetOnline this weekend.
Denny Hamlin +500
Chase Elliott +500
Kevin Harvick +600
Martin Truex Jr +700
Kyle Larson +800
Kyle Busch +1000
Joey Logano +1000
Brad Keselowski +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Alex Bowman +2000
Tyler Reddick +2200
Christopher Bell +2800
William Byron +3300
Aric Almirola +3300
Kurt Busch +4000
Austin Dillon +4000
Chase Briscoe +6600
Cole Custer +6600
Matt Dibenedetto +6600
Darrell Wallace Jr. +6600
Erik Jones +8000
Ross Chastain +15000
Ryan Newman +15000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +25000
Daniel Suarez +50000
Chris Buescher +50000
Michael McDowell +50000
Justin Haley +100000
Anthony Alfredo +100000
Ryan Preece +100000
View our 2021 NASCAR power rankings to see how we’ve fared during the early part of the season.
