It’s not the easiest thing in the world to handicap a prop in the NBA. That’s because the flow of any given game can affect the way that game progresses, what decisions are made, and ultimately what the outcome of that prop is going to be.
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What we have is data, and that is a good place to start.
Suns vs. Timberwolves Free Pick
First-half props are interesting to explore, because the fact is, some teams get off to better starts than others. And by the same token, there is sometimes a pattern where teams play better in the second half, and there are reasons for it. They may have a coach who is very good at making second-half adjustments, or they might just have more stamina and staying power.
We’re going to take a look at a first-half prop today, because that’s the kind of thing that is readily available. But we do suggest that you take a look at some of the data, because you can refer to it when using Dynamic Live at BetOnline.
So we’re going to take a look at the Sunday night game between the Phoenix Suns and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Suns’ story should be well known to you by now. A team that was struggling and barely qualified to get into the bubble went in a tear once they were in Orlando, winning all eight games and just falling short of getting into the play-in game, which could have made them the #8 seed and them, given how hot they were, who knows?
This year they are 21-11, elevating themselves to the next level with the acquisition of Chris Paul, who is averaging 8.8 assists and just got named to the Western Conference All-Star team. DeAndre Ayton is shooting 61% and averaging 11.7 rebounds. And of course there is Devin Booker, who is at just under 25 points a game.
They are a six-point first-half favorite in their game against the T-Wolves.
If you look at the Suns, you will see that they have outscored opponents by an average of 3.4 points per game in the first half.
All that looks pretty solid.
By contrast, Minnesota has been outscored by 5.6 points a game in the first half. That is dead last in the NBA.
Dead last.
So this one should be pretty simple, shouldn’t it?
Well, not exactly.
Consider that this game is being played at the Target Center. And there is a tremendous disparity between what the T-Wolves do in terms of first half output at home and on the road. On the road, they are at minus-8.3 per game, but at home they seem a little more inspired, being out-performed by their opponents by only 2.1 points per contest.
Meanwhile, the Suns have really come on strong in the second halves of games of late, beating their opponents by 13.3 points a game in the last three.
But the Suns have only scored an average of 1.3 first half points per game over their opponents when they are on the road.
And to boot, the Wolves, even in the process of losing their seventh consecutive game, both straight-up and against the number, to Washington on Saturday, They were trailing by only two points at the half.
The atmosphere with Minnesota may be kind of strange right now. But Chris Finch is in the process of taking charge, and team management is hoping that the former Toronto assistant can make some better in-game adjustments than his predecessor, Ryan Saunders.
The Wolves return home after four games (and unsuccessful ones) on the road. We’re looking for them to come into this having some energy, and we have value here.
The Play: MINNESOTA +6 (First Half)
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