You are either new or somewhat of a novice when it comes to betting NBA basketball or you have not found the amount of success you would have imagined.
Let's be truthful, the NBA is a tough sport when it comes to winning consistently. Any person betting or handicapper can have "one of those years" when everything goes your way and hit 57 percent or higher, but more often than not that is followed up with a winning percentage in the '40s.
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What has always made the NBA a hard wager is its unpredictability. A great example, which happens to every basketball bettor more than enough times during the season is this. You did your homework and Team A is favored, they have the better offense and defense, is stronger on the glass and they commit fewer turnovers. This team is also playing well and is facing a slumping opponent. Easy right! You check your phone for the first half score and your choice is down 20! Gulp. They end up losing by 12 and you have no idea how to make your next pick after having what seemed a near-perfect situation.
Here is something else to consider following schedule situations.
Betting Against Tired Teams
This is not a revolutionary idea, not even close, in fact, it had a name - Situational Handicapping. What this requires is doing handicapping in advance, knowing when the right situation occurs and be ready to fire.
After much complaining, the NBA (NHL and MLB also) listened to players and altered the length of the season by days, not games. This took away the always dreaded four games in five nights and reduced the number of back-to-back contests. Still, travel and games on consecutive days take their toll and most teams average winning about 45 percent of the time in the second of two straight games. For betting purposes here are ideal situations to plug in.
* Favorite Off a Win The Night Before
* Favorite On The Road for Both Games
* Favorite Winning The Previous Night by 3 Points or Less
A weary fave off a win might lack the same incentive the next day. Traveling is always hard and if they had to fight for all 48 minutes to secure the victory, the tank might require more than a 5-Hour energy drink. None of these guarantee making money, but they place you in the best positions too.
Betting Against Tired Teams - Part 2
Two other aspects to look into. First, NBA teams having to play the fourth game in six days. This is also a grind and in that last contest, any club might start well, yet as they head into the fourth quarter, the quality of offense and defense starts to sink and they fade away, losing and failing to cover. This was a dependable upper '50s win percentage for years, but it has dipped a bit with less of these spots with the altered schedule. Nonetheless, it is still a money-maker.
The other is a team coming home off a road trip of four or more games and having to play at home with no rest or only one day off. There are few zero days rest any more, which is too bad as that covered well into the '60s for betting percentages for years. The players are like everyone else who travels for a living when you get home, there things to attend to, like a wife, girlfriends, kids or everyday life matters. Those need energy and often that is not easy to muster.
Rested Clubs Have Play On Tendencies
NBA players are no different from the rest of us when it comes to a little R&R time. Being able to chill out and take it easy does the body and mind good.
A team that enjoyed two or more days off and is facing a tired opponent can jump on that foe early, build a lead and cover the spread.
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This is not to say all rested teams will win and beat spreads, that is why it is also important to know team tendencies from year to year (various websites have this info) and find out if their record matches the criteria for you to have the best results possible.
You can start this from the beginning of the season and up until about a month left in the regular season and expect to see positive results if you do the work and remain disciplined.