NBA Betting Strategies: Tips for Handicapping Second Half Markets

If you weren’t aware, there is a huge market for betting the second half in NBA games. Second half markets include variations traditional moneyline, point spread, and totals bets as well as wagers on NBA props. These bets apply only to play in the second half of a game.

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Betting NBA second halves is popular because bettors can use the first half as a real-time guide to handicapping the second half. So, how can bettors take advantage of betting in this market? Here are some tips for handicapping NBA second half markets.

Go with What You Know

Betting a second half point spread is the same as placing a pregame point spread bet. The only difference is now you have some real-time information. You have a feel for the flow of the game.

If you are a point spread bettor or if you like totals, stick with it. With the added information provided by the first half, you should be able to find value in certain bets that you have had success with in the past.

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The Injury Factor

One of the big things you will see happen in an NBA game is big swing in second half odds when a star player gets hurt. Say it’s LeBron James or James Harden and they suffer an injury in the first half. It is announced that they will not return to the game.

The second half odds often overstate the impact of the player that is no longer playing. Injuries to these big-name players will definitely have an impact on second half odds. Your job is to find where the value is in those new odds.

Where you might really find value is on the underrated defensive player that gets hurt in the first half. The name isn’t as big because the player does all the dirty work on defense, rebounding, and more. Second half odds often understate the value of losing such a player. Bet accordingly.

Taking a Middle

The NBA second half markets are a useful method of hedging a pregame bet. Let’s take a Celtics-Lakers clash with a posted total of 218. The score at halftime is 58-all. Because of the outburst in scoring, the game’s live total has adjusted out to 229. The second half total is now 114.5.

This is a perfect hedge or middling situation for the bettor. By taking the second half Under of 114.5, the bettor knows he only needs 102 second half points to cash on the original bet. Anything under 114.5 also cashes the second half bet. Any second half total between 103 and 114 ensures the bettor will win both bets.

This same idea can be used in point spread betting as well. If things go well in the first half for a regular time bet, the second half can be used to lock in even more profits.

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Under, Under

There is one situation where betting the second half Under often makes sense. In games with a total of 210 or higher and the first half total is short by 10 points or more, betting the second half Under wins over 54 percent of the time.

Surprisingly, this bet also wins 53 percent of the time when the total is higher. The Under hits 53 percent of the time in games with totals of 219 and higher where the first half total falls short by 10 or more points. In the 2018-19 season, that number was 59.4 percent. The season before, it was 65.5 percent.

Betting NBA second half markets can be great way to hedge a pregame bet and increase a bettor’s profits. Stick with what you know and do your homework and you can have success in this market.