NCAA Basketball Betting – We’ve Got a Comeback Effort in Wednesday’s Parlay

We thought we broke down Monday night’s New Mexico-Air Force game pretty well, but we missed the mark. Clearly there were factors that we should have included in the analysis, and that is something we’re going to get into.

Top Bookies for NCAA Basketball

As we return to the “scene of the crime,” it is time for us to redeem ourselves, and bring you a winner that you can play at HRWager.

But that’s not all; we’ve got a little more.

New Mexico Lobos at Air Force Falcons Picks

Lobos vs. Falcons Betting Report

Tip-off: 6 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: Air Force -1 (-105), Total 127.5

When we originally handicapped the Monday game, we should have more strongly considered the “Pilipovich Factor.” Dave Pilipovich was the head coach at Air Force for eight and a half years, and got fired only last year. But at a place where there is no “one-and-done” stuff, he obviously knows their personnel quite well.

He is now Paul Weir’s chief assistant at New Mexico, and he came up with a game plan that was ideal, taking advantage of the kinds of things the Lobos potentially had in their favor.

As a result, New Mexico played to defend the three-point shot primarily, because that is what the Falcons emphasize. But challenging Air Force at the perimeter, they surrendered just six of 24 (25%) at the arc. And they also managed to get inside on Air Force’s zone defense, with a lot more size to work with. Not only did they pull down ten offensive rebounds, they made 67% from two-point range. Their two big men – Bayron Matos and Valdir Manuel – shot 13 of 14 from the floor. That was all part of their 44 points in the paint.

To be fair, we wouldn’t expect that Lobo guard Saquan Singleton could have thirteen assists with just one turnover. He’s been a little too inconsistent for that. And if Air Force hit its triples at its season’s average, they would have produced nine additional points, which would have made up the difference in the 73-65 defeat.

The nature of the Air Force team is that they aren’t likely to change their style of play. And it’s not like their players are going to grow. So there is no reason to believe New Mexico can’t continue to do the same thing with some success.

And they can make the Falcons somewhat uncomfortable with their use of the press. This tactic is something Weir employed against Wyoming, which helped the Lobos come back from a 27-point deficit and cut it all the way to two points. It didn’t produce a lot of turnovers, but it sped the pace up more than Air Force wanted to play.

In the altitude, it appeared to be New Mexico that had the staying power as the game approached a conclusion, as they scored 27 points in the fourth quadrant (final ten minutes).

And it looks like Falcon coach Joe Scott wants to give some of his younger players additional playing time, in preparation for the Mountain West tournament. Two sophomores who started for the first time – Camden Vander Zwaag and Carter Murphy combined to make one field goal in nine attempts. They have scored just 25 points between them for the entire season.

All things considered, we’ll go with the Lobos, who are underdogs again. And we get the sense that if Weir continues to apply pressure, this pace will accelerate, thus pumping up our total.

The Plays: NEW MEXICO +1 and OVER 127.5

NCAA Basketball PicksandLive College Hoops Odds

Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes Picks

Seminoles vs. Hurricanes Betting Report

Tip-off: 8:30 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: Florida State -11.5, Total 143

Miami’s short-handed lineup was hammered on the boards by FSU in their earlier meeting, which produced an 81-59 Seminole victory. The margin was huge – 45 to 23 – and it was clear that Leonard Hamilton, the former Miami coach, was going “big” and it worked, as the ‘Noles hit 59% two-pointers with fifteen offensive boards.

Of course, the big win for Florida State was the 81-60 pounding of Virginia, and they have had nine days to “get over” that. Things have gotten a little out of hand for the ‘Canes, or so it seems; they also didn’t do a good job of dealing with Georgia Tech, which made 25 of 37 inside the arc (67.6%). Falling behind 48-18 at the half before being able to figure out anything is a red flag.

In this rivalry game, we might normally gives a chance to a team like Miami, IF they had an equalizer, such as the ability to hit long-range shots. But the Hurricanes have hit just 29% from beyond the arc, which is outside the top 300, while FSU has been sharp from downtown – its 39.4% accuracy rate is among the top ten in the nation. So they will really stretch things out.

The Play: FLORIDA STATE -11.5

View the opening and closing odds in our NCAAB game recaps.