The second round of the NFL playoffs pits the four wild card winners against the top two seeds in each conference. Not only do the top seeds have the advantage of playing at home, they are also coming off a bye while their opponent had to battle their way through an opening round playoff game.
Recent betting stats show that underdogs in the opening Wild Card Round covered more than 63 percent of the time against the closing spread. That number drops off significantly when it comes to this round of games.
There is a reason why the top two teams in each conference earned that first round bye. It becomes much harder to keep these games close when the team getting points is facing one of the best teams in the league.
Going chalk across the board in the divisional playoffs can be a viable betting strategy but there are exceptions to every rule.
Each of the four games need to be broken down on its own merit. Online sportsbooks already know that there will be a strong betting lean towards the favorites in this round so the opening spreads could be a bit inflated. That is why breaking down the matchups on a number of different levels is the best way to find the true value in the NFL betting odds.
When it comes to betting the total line in the divisional playoffs, bettors need to keep an eye to the sky for any outdoor game. It is the middle of January and weather can have an impact on any game being played in the natural elements.
Pure cold does not have that big of an impact on scoring. However, when you add in wind and any form of precipitation things can get rather ugly on the field. There should be a natural lean towards the UNDER in outdoor games, especially if both of the teams boast a stout defense.
Dome games with high-scoring teams does set the stage for a play on the OVER.
The number is already going to be high but the best offenses shine the brightest on the NFL’s biggest stage. High profile quarterbacks tend to highlight these types of games along with each team’s top playmakers.
Momentum and emotion also play a significant role in the handicapping process. The wild card teams actually gets the nod in momentum coming off last week’s playoff win. Emotion comes into play when the two teams are extremely familiar with one another. How a regular season meeting played out will have some bearing on the rematch in the playoffs.
Recent betting trends between the two can also be a factor.
Depending on the spread, betting favorites on the moneyline can actually be a solid bet. The risk is going to be high given the juice involved. Yet, history has demonstrated that the cream still tends to rise to the top in the NFL.
The Wild Card Round can be filled with upsets given games between closely matched teams. When it comes to the NFL Divisional Round, there are some significant gaps between the favored team and the underdog. Being one win away from playing in the conference championship with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line tends to bring the best out in the two best teams in each conference.
A big part of the services that my marketing company, Blue Pointe Advisors, LLC offers is written content for sports betting websites. I have been working as a full-time sports betting writer for the past nine years following a previous career in the field of sales and marketing.
I consider myself extremely fortunate to be able to write about my true passion in life; the world of sports. I also enjoy concentrating the bulk of my pieces towards the betting angle in sports.
It is always a challenge to take past results and current form to try and correctly determine a future result. Sports brings out the unpredictability in what should be a fairly predictable outcome based on the stats, facts and recent trends in a particular matchup. The one thing that I have learned over the past decade or so is that when it comes to betting on sports there is no such thing as a lock.
The main objective with my writing style is to create insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player. While there are times when my predictions fall well short of the actual outcome, I still enjoy trying to come up with a logical explanation to support my views on every pick I make.
My love of sports started a long time ago when I was just a kid growing up just outside Philadelphia. While I was a big Phillies, Flyers and 76ers fan, my number one team was always the Eagles. My dad was a season ticket holder from 1961 to 2002 and I would honestly say that he missed less than a handful of games than more than a few dismal seasons.
I was fortunate enough to go to a number of Eagles’ games back in the day including the 1980 NFC Championship when Wilbert Montgomery ran roughshod over the bitter rival Dallas Cowboys to lead Philly to their first appearance in a Super Bowl. Flash forward 40 years later and am I still celebrating the thrilling victory over New England in Super Bowl LVII. I know that my dad was smiling down on that one.