NFL Free Pick Week 4 | Chiefs at Lions

Two unbeaten teams meet in the Motor City in Week 4 when the Detroit Lions host the Kansas City Chiefs. Most expected the Chiefs to roll this season after a 12-4 regular season and a trip to the Conference Championship last year, but the Lions may be one of the biggest surprises as we approach the quarter point of the 2019 NFL season.




Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, 3-0 ATS) at Detroit Lions (2-0-1, 2-1 ATS)

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 29th, 2019

Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

TV Coverage: FOX

Current Line: DET +7   Total: 54.5

Current 1st Half Line: DET +4   Total: 27


Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are juggernauts. Only the Ravens have more total yards, but when it comes to passing yards, the Chiefs are more than 200 yards ahead of any team that has only played 3 games so far.

KC has 1177 yards through the air, with the Patriots second at 934. I know, the Packers and Eagles sit at 1006 and 956, respectively, but they played Thursday night and have an extra game played. The bottom line is the Chief are good.


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I actually picked the Lions on the moneyline last week against the Eagles, so I’m not being a hater, but looking at their injury report for Week 4, 7-points aren’t enough.

Detroit’s best player on both sides of the ball appears on the report. QB Matthew Stafford (hip) and CB Darius Slay (hamstring) highlight the report, with DT Mike Daniels (OUT), DE Da’Shawn Hand and WR Danny Amendola making appearances.

Stafford is expected to play and Slay is a “true game-time decision”, but even if some of these guys play, I can’t see them being at 100%. I have already talked about Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense. Add in the fact they will be under a dome, against a defense that is running without your best DB, it won’t be pretty.

Although the Chiefs are only 2-4 in their last 6 in Detroit, we need to put that into perspective, because the last 3 games they player there were in 2011, 2007 and 1996.

The Chiefs are 10-0 in their last 10 September games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall vs. the Lions.

After this week’s NFL games are over, be sure to check out our NFL Recaps. They have a ton of info, including the closing odds for every game.

Some are going to say that the Chiefs have their fair share of injuries as well. That is true, with RB Damien Williams ruled OUT, WR Tyreek Hill out 4-5 weeks and T Eric Fisher out indefinitely, but the difference is depth.

KC will still be running RBs Shady McCoy, Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson out there. While Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman are more than filling the void left by Hill.

Sorry Lions fans. I know you are all playing the Rodney Dangerfield card saying you ain’t getting any respect, but this is the week you get your first loss. 7-points isn’t enough in this one, and I am taking the Chiefs -7.

NFL Late Free Picks: Kansas City Chiefs -7-110 (find best odds by clicking here)

Free pick by Joe Berra