Free agency in the NFL has been underway since mid-March. When you add in the recent 2020 NFL draft at the end of April, the actual roster for all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season is pretty much set. There will still be some player movement here and there, but it is highly doubtful that any player moves will have a dramatic impact on a team’s chances to win a Super Bowl.
That is why tracking the NFL futures odds to win that season’s Super Bowl after the annual draft makes the most sense.
Bettors who took a flyer on Tampa Bay back in early February are suddenly sitting pretty with Tom Brady now at quarterback. Yet, the odds are not going to improve all that much for the team that eventually signs former Carolina quarterback Cam Newton.
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As soon as the Kansas City Chiefs pulled off the come-from-behind victory over the San Francisco 49ers in last season’s Super Bowl, they were instilled as the favorites to win back-to-back NFL titles.
That remains the case today as +750 favorites.
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Seeing that it is early May, anything can still happen between now and next February.
However, taking into consideration just how good this team really is along with just how generous the return on investment is right now, an early bet on a Chiefs’ repeat makes all the sense in the world.
Next on the post-draft list is the Baltimore Ravens as +800 second-favorites.
This team is about as complete as it gets. Coming off his MVP performance in 2019, quarterback Lamar Jackson provides quite a bit of upside to this team’s odds. Most football experts were thrilled with the Ravens’ recent draft to add even more depth to a very talented roster.
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My concern with Baltimore is living up to all the hype. As the No. 1 seed in AFC last year, the Ravens were stunned by Tennessee in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. That raises enough doubt in my mind to question the true value in their Super Bowl LV odds and weekly NFL picks.
There is a trio of teams at +1200 odds starting with last season’s NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers.
I would stay away from this bet for one simple reason: the following season’s track record for teams losing the Super Bowl. It is hard to quickly put that kind of devasting loss in the rear view mirror. Especially a loss like San Francisco’s.
NFC South
Next on the list is the New Orleans Saints. For the last three seasons, the Saints have played like a Super Bowl team in the regular season only to come up well short in the playoffs. Similar to Baltimore, quite a bit of value is lost on New Orleans to finally live up to expectations.
The third team at +1200 odds is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Brady throwing the ball to his old New England teammate Rob Gronkowski will be fun to watch. Yet, the overall competition in the NFC drains most of the value from these odds as well. Not to mention getting past the Saints in the NFC South.
The betting public is driving this number as opposed to common sense. The Patriots did not pay Brady the money he was looking for because they know he is past his prime. Adding Gronk is a nice touch but there are still more than a few holes on both sides of the ball that have yet to be filled.
