Nothing’s a slam dunk when it comes to NFL handicapping. Don’t let anyone tell you differently.
You may think something is a “lock,” but keep in mind that the guys at this level are all professionals, and on any given day… well, you know the saying.
That having been said, we have some teams here that have a bumpy track record (at least for 2021) or can take advantage of defenses that have resembled a sieve.
Falcons at Jaguars Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 28 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Atlanta Falcons – Over 23.5 Points (-120) / Under 23.5 Points (-110)
The Play: FALCONS UNDER 23.5 POINTS (-120)
I’m including the Falcons on this report because it’s probably not all that coincidental that they have played the last seven quarters of football without Cordarrelle Patterson, and in those seven quarters they have not scored at all.
Patterson gives Atlanta something that not a lot of teams have, actually, which is a running back (albeit one that is converted) who can get loose on deep routes. As such, he both keeps the defense close and stretches them out at once. Granted, his presence hasn’t been enough to make the Falcons a winning team, but without him we don’t know where they’d be, particularly in the wake of the departures of both Julio Jones (off-season) and Calvin Ridley (in-season, mental health reasons).
Atlanta has not been outscored 68-3 over the last two games, and there is much less likelihood that they will run successfully on Jacksonville than the other way around. Patterson has an ankle sprain and will quite possibly be a game-time decision, so watch this closely.
Panthers at Dolphins Team Totals
Panthers vs. Dolphins Best Bets
Time: Sunday, November 28 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Miami Dolphins – Over 20.5 Points (-120) / Under 20.5 Points (-110)
The Play: DOLPHINS UNDER 20.5 POINTS (-110)
This game is one we’re looking at closely to go under the total, but the Panthers are the team in this game that has the more dynamic leader….. at the moment anyway.
Miami ranks 29th in the league in yards per dropback, and at 77.4 yards per game, their chances of controlling this game with their ground attack are low. Tua Tagovailoa has worked well off play action, but play action isn’t going to work unless you can showing the rushing game as a threat.
The Dolphins’ offensive line problems have been well-known for most of the year; rookie tackle Liam Eichenberg, for example, has allowed a ton of pressures. Tua is generally a checkdown quarterback, which means drives will generally take longer. And if you look, you’ll see that Carolina has still yielded fewer yards per drive than any other NFL team.
Buccaneers at Colts Team Totals
Buccaneers vs. Colts Best Bets
Time: Sunday, November 28 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Tampa Bay Bucs – Over 27 Points (-125) / Under 27 Points (-105)
The Play: BUCS OVER 27 POINTS (-125)
One of the things that might be helpful to mention is that since the Colts went back to basics and started to use Jonathan Taylor the way he should be used, they have played six of the last eight games over the total, and the two that didn’t go over were the ones that came against teams that were greatly “challenged” on offense (Houston and Jacksonville).
Of course, the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers do not fit that category. Tom Brady will neutralize the pass rush; he has thrown 27 TD passes, while Indy has given up 25 touchdowns through the air, which is second most in the league. And despite the presence of capable running backs like Leonard Fournette, the Bucs are still throwing it 67% of the time.
Vikings at 49ers Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 28 – 4:25 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: San Francisco 49ers – Over 24.5 Points (-130) / Under 24.5 Points (+100)
The Play: NINERS OVER 24.5 POINTS (-130)
Kind of quietly, I guess, Jimmy Garoppolo has become fourth in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.3). And part of that is because of play action, where he’s averaging ten yards a throw. It would really please Kyle Shanahan if rookie running back Elijah Mitchell, who’s logging the ball at a rate of almost five yards a carry, could play with his broken finger, but he’s been “favoring” it in practice.
His participation is a bit of a question, although we’re thinking he’ll play. What there is little doubt about is that this Viking secondary can be challenged in all areas of the field. And the Vikes let people run (4.8 ypc). Guess who loves to run the ball?
Steelers at Bengals Team Totals
Steelers vs. Bengals Best Bets
Time: Sunday, November 28 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers – Over 20.5 Points (-115) / Under 20.5 Points (-115)
The Play: STEELERS UNDER 20.5 POINTS (-115)
The fact that the Bengals play a slow, deliberate brand of football (lots of time between plays) does not bode well for Pittsburgh’s output here. That’s because they don’t have the components that can put up points efficiently.
Yeah, we know they came up with 27 points in the fourth quarter against the Chargers, as they were able to get some breaks and take advantage. But the Steelers are in the bottom third of the league in producing points on a per-drive basis. And meanwhile, the story that is not talked about a lot with the Bengals is that they are sixth in the NFL in yards AND points per drive allowed. They’re sixth in the league in rushing yards allowed as well, so there’s not much room for what Pittsburgh would really like to do.
