When is the right time to exercise the “puck line”? We ask ourselves that question often, because the NHL is a league where a team that is trailing late might pull the goaltender in such a way as to make the final result something not necessarily indicative of the closeness of a game.
You know what I mean?
Where to Bet on the NHL Tonight
We’re not sure this applies to Friday night’s contest between the Colorado Avalanche (formerly of Quebec) and Anaheim Ducks (formerly Mighty). But if you’re just glancing at things, appearances might be deceiving.
Let’s see if we can see some value here, and if we can earn you some cash at America’s Bookie.
Anaheim Ducks vs. Colorado Avalanche Picks
When: 9:05 PM ET (Friday)
NHL Betting Odds
Money Line: Avalanche -255, Ducks +215
Puck Line: Avs -1.5 Goals +100, Ducks +1.5 Goals -120
Total: Over 5.5 Goals -105, Under 5.5 Goals -115
In Wednesday night’s game against San Jose, Nathan MacKinnon took a nasty hit to his head by the Sharks’ Joachim Blichfeld, who has been suspended two games for his actions.
MacKinnon was taken off the ice, but he was expected to be at Friday’s morning skate, so the strong possibility exists that he will play. He centers the #1 line with Mikko Rantanen and Gabe Landeskog, and has five goals and 17 assists for 22 points, which ties for the team lead.
After Wednesday’s 4-0 shutout of San Jose, the Avs are 12-7-1 for 25 points, which puts them in a tie with Minnesota for third place in the West. Anaheim is 6-12-5 for 17 points, which puts them in last place in the division. This is the beginning of nine consecutive home games for Colorado, and they are welcoming some fans back.
Hopefully, they will welcome one of their top players back sometime next week.
Cole Makar, the defenseman who has logged more ice time than any other Colorado player (aside from goaltenders, of course) will sit again with an “upper-body injury.” He will miss the next game as well.
After splitting four games against both Vegas and Minnesota, the Avs beat Arizona in two games on the road, and then split a pair against San Jose. Prior to Wednesday’s contest, the team held a meeting that head coach Jared Bednar said was very much “to the point.”
We don’t know everything that was said, obviously, but one of the matters that was discussed was the team coming out and being consistent night after night. Forward Brandon Saad had expressed that “we’ve kind of taken the night off” too many times. That included a 6-2 loss at the hands of the Wild, and another 6-2 defeat that came on Monday against San Jose.
One of the things that has certainly been the subject of discussion is possible exhaustion on the part of goalie Philipp Grubauer, who has played 17 of the 20 games. Colorado is reportedly in the market for a reliable veteran option as a backup. Meanwhile though, Grubauer, who has surrendered five goals in two of his last four games, is still having an excellent season, with a 2.07 goals-against, .920 save percentage and three shutouts, including the one on Wednesday.
The question handicappers may want to ask themselves isn’t whether Colorado is better, but how bad Anaheim might allow itself to be.
The answer is, bad but not SO bad. The Ducks have indeed lost eight straight games. But six of those have been by just a single goal. They have had seven regulation losses by one goal, and lost five in the overtime or shootout phase. So we would question the value of playing the Avs on the puck line.
Rather, we wonder whether -120 might be just a small price to pay on the Ducks here, grabbing a goal and a half.
At the same time, Anaheim goaltender Josh Gibson has not allowed fewer than three goals in a game in any of his last seven starts. Does that maybe give us a little pause? Not especially.
Anaheim has gone 15-8 against the puck line, and played 14 of its 23 games under the total. Colorado has not been a good puck line play at all (just 35%). And they also trend toward the under (12-8 in that direction).
The Ducks have had a rather effective penalty killing unit, which was seventh in the league until allowing three against the Blues the other night. That was the difference in the 3-2 loss. Anaheim isn’t all THAT bad, are they? Well, we’re willing to pay to find out.
And who knows – maybe the Avs will “take the night off” again.
The Play: ANAHEIM +1.5 (-120)
