I’ve been fiddling around with some hockey “analytics” lately – nothing too incredibly complex, but enough to give me a general idea as to who the best teams in the NHL REALLY are.
This obviously relates to futures betting, although admittedly one has to allow for the proposition that the possibilities are endless, given the format they are going to use in the playoffs.
But there was a team that kept coming out on top.
And we’re going to talk about it.
Top Contenders to Win 2021 NHL Stanley Cup
First, let’s take a look at the top contenders (in alphabetical order) as they are listed in the NHL futures betting market.
BOSTON BRUINS +900
CAROLINA HURRICANES +900
COLORADO AVALANCHE +400
EDMONTON OILERS +2000
FLORIDA PANTHERS +1700
MINNESOTA WILD +1700
MONTREAL CANADIENS +2300
NEW YORK ISLANDERS +900
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +1500
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +600
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS +600
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS +700
WASHINGTON CAPITALS +1100
WINNIPEG JETS +1700
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There has to be a certain inherent value in being able to take advantage of being a man up, or being able to turn back the other team when IT has a man advantage. So something that, for the sake of this discussion, we’ll call “Special Teams Differential” has to carry some weight.
First of all, do the better teams play “clean”? In other words, do they get whistled for fewer penalties, relative to their opponents? I’m not sure that I can come to a definite conclusion about that. When we look at a plus-minus figure related to power play opportunities, only four of the teams that are in the top ten in that category are also in the top ten in the category of “Points Percentage” (that is, the percentage of possible standings points a team gets per game).
So maybe there’s a correlation, but more likely there isn’t. And when we look at the Special Teams Differential, which involves the difference between power play goals and power play goals allowed, only five of those teams in the top ten are also top ten in Points Percentage. However, nine of those teams are among the top 16 teams in Points Percentage.
And guess who the top team is, in the categories of Special Teams Differential and Power Play Opportunity Differential?
It’s the Colorado Avalanche.
There is something called “High Danger Scoring Chances,” which basically describes those opportunities that are in the slot or right near the net, or come from a rebound. In other words, these are situations where the only thing standing between a goal being scored and not being scored is a lucky save by a goaltender. It would stand to reason that the better teams will create more chances for themselves, and that the more and more chances they get, the more likely they are going to score.
The percentage of High Danger Chances FOR a team, then, would appear to be important. And who is #1 in that statistic?
The Colorado Avalanche, at 70%. And it’s a long way down to the next team.
If you have followed hockey analytics in any way, you are familiar with the term “Fenwick,” which essentially measures the differential for a team’s shots not ON goal, but TOWARD the goal. What it is supposed to do is basically offer a barometer as to which team is able to control the action in the other team’s end, in 5-on-5 situations. This is not an “end all, be all” metric, although we will say that it isn’t often that a very bad team will be in the top ten here.
And who is #1 in Fenwick?
The Colorado Avalanche, once again.
The category of “Expected Goals” entails a few things, but basically it measures what can be expected out of a team based on the quality of their shots. And there is value to be derived in the difference between Expected Goals for and against. When we see the teams that are in the top ten in this category, it seems to be a lot more telling as far as what their actual performance has been, and maybe it also shows us who might be a little better than is reflected in the standings. Seven of the top ten teams here are also in the top ten in Points Percentage.
And the #1 team in Expected Goal Differential?
The Colorado Avalanche. And it’s not even close.
A team that is at the top – and decisively so – in all those categories is going to be very hard to beat, as long as they get respectable goaltending. And it is safe to say that with Philip Grubauer and his 2.00 goals-against average (we’ll get into metrics for goalies in another installment), they’re getting more than respectable work between the pipes.
Out in the West, the Avs have a couple of other pretty good teams in the division. Thus far they have split six games with the Vegas Golden Knights (+700) and beat the Minnesota Wild (+1700) five out of eight. They’re not dominant, but they hold up just fine, and they are the most solid all around.
Even at +400, they’re as good a choice as any.
