Betting sports and football, in particular, is a moving target. Years ago most average bettors only played parlay card for $5 or $10 with lousy spreads. Only the hardcore gambler worked directly with a local bookie.
Times have changed and with the Supreme Court ruling, states, corporate giants and companies are in their infancy trying to figure out how to take the next step and profit from what many will be a truly booming business.
Along for this ride is technology and today countless algorithms are being built and new and old handicappers are trying to decide new ways to beat the odds for betting sports.
At the same time, there are those that put a pencil to the paper (large erasers always handy) trying to beat the sportsbooks and the bookies, using knowledge from what seems like many generations ago in the sports betting business.
There are those that have patience and do not dump bets at halftime because it's losing, trying to chase the next winner. Or needing trends or systems that hit 90 percent to even be considered. Instead, they understand some elements stand the test of time and might not always win sacks full of cash, but do so slowly and consistently.
Quality Trend That Pays Reliably
Over the years, two angles or trends that profits virtually every year are these.
Play On a team that has not covered for exactly three consecutive games.
Play Against a team that has covered for exactly three consecutive games.
We have never been able to find out the exact person or origins of these trends, but what we do know is they work.
Having tracked this for over two decades, over 80 percent of the time these trends have won 55 to 68 percent in college football and the NFL.
This year in college football, teams off three straight covers are 9-12-1 ATS and those off a trio of non-covers are 13-9 ATS. Some may say that is not big deal, but that is 57.1% on the first angle 59% on the second one.
In the NFL, those with three straight spread winners are 2-3-1 ATS and those with three consecutive losses are 3-2 ATS. Keep in mind this is only Week 6, thus, we have only had two weeks this would have been in play since nothing can even happen until Week 4 in either sport.
Why Does This Trend Work?
Why this angle generates annual profits is because of perception, overconfidence, and desire.
It works on perception because sportsbooks are aware bettors are seeing teams on ATS winning and losing streaks and understand betting patterns of bettors and adjust certain lines to match their thought process from the past.
Those teams in the NFL or college are not following how many spreads winners or losers they have had in a row. They know their game by game expectations. If they have played well three games in a row and more often than not have won or been extremely competitive, they might have a tendency to be a little cocksure and not play as well.
The same would be true of squads with three straight spread losses. In a real-world sense, they have not met their own expectations and for that next contest, they come ready to play.
One Last Thing To Know
About 12, 13 years ago, this handicapper made one adjustment. The three spread wins or losses performed better when played in four consecutive weeks. If there is a bye week involved in any period, disregard because it throws off the effectiveness when teams are able to take a step back and make adjustments over a longer than normal time.