Speculation Turns to Free Agents as MLB Lockout Ends

We have an update on the baseball lockout.

It’s over.

The MLB players and owners were so far apart that it’s inevitable that one side had to make major concessions to the other.

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Well, they kind of compromised.

As a result, spring training games will start pretty quickly – on March 17, in fact. And the regular season will get underway on April 7.

So What Does This Mean for the Schedule?

Even though the start of the season was pushed back at least a week, there will be a full 162-game slate, which is good for the players because they won’t lose service time.

This also might mean more doubleheaders than usual. And that is a subject of change as well. For two seasons, twin bills consisted of two seven-inning contests, but now they will go the full nine.

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Which Side Got the Better Deal?

Well, that’s a good question. Both sides got something out of it. The most pressing issue involved what to do about the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT), and at what point clubs would be penalized for spending past a predetermined threshold. The previous threshold was $210 million. The owners offered $220 million, while the players were looking for $238 million. Ultimately it was settled at $230 million, starting with this season, with a graduating scale up to $244 million by 2026. And there is a new penalty level for teams that go $60 million over the threshold. That carries with it an 80% tax on the overage. They’re naming it after Steve Cohen, owner of the Mets, who is expected to be the first to get there, perhaps this season.

The playoff field has expanded from ten teams to twelve. The owners wanted 14, and there was an argument that if more teams found themselves in contention for a playoff spot, fewer teams would feel the motivation to “tank.” Therefore there might be more spending. Or, maybe less spending, because fewer teams would have to do deep into their own pockets in order to contend. See what we’re saying?

Not everybody thinks the players came out of it well. Buster Olney, analyst for ESPN, believes that while the elite level of stars stands to benefit, the “middle class” of players might get left out in the cold. He points out that Scott Boras’ clients (i.e., high-ticket guys) dominate the leadership of the union, and that those players in the rank-and-file were somewhat under-represented.

How Does All This Affect Free Agency?

Players were eligible to sign free agent contracts as soon as the agreement was ratified. And things are going to happen quickly. Right away, two of the top starting pitchers inked deals. Carlos Rodon signed a two-year, $44 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. And Clayton Kershaw came to terms on a one-year pact to go back to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

One of the new rules that came out of the negotiations was the “Universal DH,” which means you’ll now see it in the National League. So there are NL teams that might find themselves able to sign people they might not have thought of before. For example, the Mets have Pete Alonso at first base, but they might be willing to go after someone else at that position, like Anthony Rizzo or Kyle Schwarber, because one of them can be a designated hitter.

It is also worth mentioning that players are going to be signing free agent contracts well into spring training, so they will literally be joining their new teams during the exhibition schedule, and perhaps even beyond Opening Day.

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So Who Are the Best Free Agents Out There?

Well, Rizzo is one of them, and he could conceivably go anywhere, even back to the Yankees, although we imagine that move might have been made before the lockout started.

Carlos Correa, generally considered to be the #1 guy on the list, is looking for $30 million-plus, and the shortstop might find interest from the Yankees, Phillies or Cubs. Trevor Story is another shortstop, and he’ll come with a considerably lower price tag, with a shoulder injury having had its effect last season. He can hit with a lot of power.

Freddie Freeman is looked upon as a big fish; he did not sign a contract to go back to the world champion Braves prior to the lockout. The holdout may have been the length of the deal (he wanted six years, they wanted five). But he is a reliable bat, and a big one, and was the National League MVP as recently as 2020. There will be some demand for his services. And a team like the Dodgers might be able to pony up the cash.

Another former MVP is Kris Bryant, who was traded from the Cubs to the Giants last season. He’s dropped a bit, but his versatility is a plus, and might find a home with a mid-level market team that wants to spend.

As for teams that DON’T want to spend, Nick Castellanos,who hit .309 with 34 homers for the Cincinnati Reds last season, was very much on Derek Jeter’s radar, but the Miami Marlins’ ownership (Jeter only has a small piece) did not want to allocate additional funds for payroll, so that was a major reason why a disgusted Jeter quit as team CEO – or so the rumor goes.

There are plenty of closers available too, most prominent among them being Kenley Jansen, who should be able to command in excess of $10 million per season. the Dodgers appear to have the inside track on luring him back to Chavez Ravine.

We’re expecting a flurry of activity in the coming week.

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