Survivor 40: Winners at War Predictions and Betting Odds

Who has been enjoying the first seven episodes of Survivor 40: Winners at War?

Old school fans of the reality TV series may be slightly disappointed that the old school players are decimated already, but everyone still has a chance to win the $2 million first-place prize.

Well, everyone except Sandra Diaz-Twine, the self-appointed “Queen of Survivor”, as she quit.

Worth the Read > The Effects of COVID-19 on Society & The Sports World

Merge Time

For those unaware, we’re heading to the merge at the start of Episode 8 this Wednesday.

Unfortunately, Yul was the last casualty prior to the merge. He was the last old school player to be voted off to the Edge of Extinction (EoE), which shows how much this game has changed.

Player Still in Survivor 40 (Updated Betting Odds)

Here are the players that made it to the merge:

Tony Vlachos (+115) - 1 Fire Token

Kim Spradlin-Wolfe (+500) - 1 Fire Token + 1 Immunity Idol

Michele Fitzgerald (+600) - 3 Fire Tokens

Sophie Clarke (+750) - 2 Fire Tokens + 1 Immunity Idol

Sarah Lacina (+900) - 1 Fire Token + 1 Steal a Vote

Nick Wilson (+1600) - 2 Fire Tokens

Wendell Holland (+1600) - 2 Fire Tokens

Adam Klein (+2000) - 1 Fire Token

Ben Driebergen (+2000) - 1 Fire Token

Jeremy Collins (+2000) - 1 Fire Token + 1 Safety without Power

Denise Stapley (+5000) - 1 Fire Token


This entire season has been entertaining and for the most part unpredictable.

What’s going to happen after the merge is anyone’s guess.


*SPOILER ALERT*: There has been a rumor circulating online this week that the final three will have two females and one male with the male’s name starting with a “T”. 

I have no idea if the rumor has any credibility, but that’s why Tony is nearly the odds-on favorite. Tony is also a fan favorite because of his antics, such as spying on his tribemates.

However, even prior to the merge, his Dakal tribemates were voicing their concerns about how he is a big threat to win and they were discussing making a move on him if they had to attend tribal.

Kim is next up in the market, but I’m worried about her at the merge. She has been getting closer to Denise, but that may not be ideal, as Denise is a big target after deceiving Sandra.

Kim likely won’t be a target the next few weeks, but I don’t think she wins either.

Michele is in a tough position too. Can her and ex-boyfriend Wendell work together? They’ll need to if they want to survive, but I don’t see it working out long-term. I don’t like Wendell’s style at all and he’ll likely be a big target after the merge. Him and Adam are both in trouble moving forward.

Survivor 40 Picks - Best Bets to Win

My two picks are Sophie (+750) and Sarah (+900) from the Yara tribe.

Both players have advantages heading into the merge, and both of them are smart enough to get the most value out of them. I don’t see either of them wasting their advantage, giving them a thought when betting on Survivor.

Sophie and Sarah are both working together right now. If they can stay solid they could both end up making the final three, but there’s definitely a chance one stabs the other in the back.

Sarah is a police officer and she’s great at siphoning information from her tribemates. Sophie is quietly playing the best early game and no one is viewing her as a threat yet.

With so many other perceived bigger targets in the game, these two should be able to fly under the radar these next weeks while working the social angle and building alliances.

Edge of Extinction

Here are the eight players on the EoE:

Natalie Anderson - 4 Fire Tokens

Rob Mariano - 3 Fire Tokens

Amber Mariano - 1 Fire Token

Danni Boatwright - 1 Fire Token

Ethan Zohn - 1 Fire Token

Tyson Apostol - 1 Fire Token

Parvati Shallow - 0 Fire Tokens

Yul Kwon - 0 Fire Tokens


The EoE is a new Survivor twist. The first time this twist appeared was in Survivor: Edge of Extinction (Season 38) and this is now the second time we’ve seen this twist implemented.

In Season 38, Chris Underwood went on to win the season after being sent to the EoE.

Will that happen again? My money is on no, but the bookies still believe in Natalie. Natalie has the most fire tokens on the EoE and she is priced up at +600, making her a favorite to win still.

I wouldn’t recommend betting on Natalie at that price. Even if she comes back, she’s going to have a big target on her back. Even if she made the final three, would she get the necessary votes?

I would rather see an old school player come back into the game, but we’ll have to wait and see.

About the Author

Scott is one of our newest writer and handicapper here at, but he has been writing sports betting content for more than a decade online. His work has been featured on many websites.


Scott is a millennial (born in 1989) who grew up in Toronto, Canada and he has never left the big city. He grew up playing a few sports (hockey, soccer and baseball) when he was younger. His favorite sport was hockey and he played goalie. He still likes to get out to the rinks to play some pick-up with his buddies.


Growing up in Toronto, Scott is a huge fan of all Toronto teams.


He watches the Maple Leafs and Raptors religiously. Scott also enjoys watching the Blue Jays, Argonauts and TFC.


His best sports memory was when the Raptors were crowned the 2019 NBA Champions. Unfortunately, he’s still waiting for the Maple Leafs to win a Stanley Cup during his lifetime.


Scott may be a diehard fan of Toronto sports teams, but he loves watching all sports. He’s a huge UFC fan (look for his UFC betting articles for most events) and he’ll watch just about anything, including tennis, golf, soccer and cricket.


Scott is a numbers guy and he likes digging deep into the statistics when handicapping games. He also likes to identify value bets in markets most bettors overlook, including player/team props.


When he’s not handicapping and watching sports, he enjoys golfing in the warmer months. He also loves burgers and poutine. Not only is that his favorite meal, but he has tried over 100 burgers in Toronto and he’s constantly looking for the best new burgers in the city.