It’s one of the greatest dynasties in all of sports. Doing it all through a free agency that sees players jump teams often is even more impressive.
The New England Patriots won the AFC East Division 17 times, including the last 11 straight. Before last season, they had played in eight straight AFC championship games and the Patriots have six Super Bowl titles.
In the offseason, future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady, who spent 20 seasons in New England, signed with Tampa Bay bringing the Bill Belichick-Brady era to an end. That’s not the only thing that ends.
Bettors will no longer have one of the safest bets available. The Belichick-Brady duo is one of the greatest NFL betting dynasties the sport has ever seen.
The Numbers
The last time New England had a losing regular season record against the point spread was in 2002.
Since, the Patriots have had a winning record ATS in every season.
That’s 17 straight seasons with a winning record ATS.
No other NFL team has ever come close to matching New England. The Patriots’ streak is twice as long as any other team since the beginning of the Super Bowl era.
With Brady as the quarterback in New England, he and Belichick have a record of 189-128-7 against the spread. The Patriots covered nearly 60 percent of the time. It’s the second-best mark for a head coach-quarterback tandem in NFL history. The best record belongs to Bill Walsh and Joe Montana of San Francisco (77-48 ATS).
One of the most secure bets in recent history was on the Patriots after a regular season loss.
In 61 such games, the Brady-Belichick tandem went 42-19 (68.9 percent) ATS. The Patriots never lost four straight games against the spread in any single regular season with Brady and Belichick.
Sportsbooks had a love-hate relationship with the Patriots. New England brought in a ton of action, but betting on Patriot games often represented a sportsbooks biggest single-game loss for an entire season.
Can It Continue?
Now that Brady will be in Tampa, the question is can Brady and Bucs head coach Bruce Arians have similar success? Will Belichick have similar success now that he has Cam Newton under center for the Patriots?
For Tampa Bay, Brady will have a wealth of offensive talent. It starts with Arians, the author of the Quarterback Whispererwho has worked with Peyton Manning, Carson Wentz, and Ben Roethlisberger to name a few.
Arians knows offense. Tampa Bay had the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL in 2019. Wide receivers Mike Evans (1,157 yards) and Chris Godwin (1,333) each went over 1,000 yards receiving.
While the offense is outstanding, bettors might shy away from the Bucs because of their defense. Tampa Bay actually had the NFL’s best run defense (73.8 ypg), but still gave up 28.1 points per game (29th in the NFL).
Bettors will find out quickly in 2020 if such a streak can continue in Tampa. Brady has been favored in 74 consecutive regular season games. That’s the longest streak of any starting quarterback since 1966, the beginning of the Super Bowl era.
One thing is for sure though when the 2020 season begins. One of the best bets in all of sports will be gone forever.
