If you have followed our weekly free pick, you would know that we were right on last week when two extremely average offenses took to the field. I told you there was only one thing to do, and if you followed, you added to your bankroll.
This week, it’s an AFC South slugfest. It’s probably not a game you watch if you want to see a lot of offensive theatrics, but it can still generate some profits for NFL bettors.
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Both Tennessee and Jacksonville are built around a similar idea – run the football, play great defense, and don’t make mistakes. Both teams attempt to follow the plan to the best of their abilities, but the results are often ugly.
After scoring 43 points against Cleveland in Week 1, the Titans put up just 242 total yards and 17 points in a loss to Indianapolis. Running back Derrick Henry continued his stellar play with 81 rushing yards and a touchdown, but QB Marcus Mariota was sacked four times and had just 154 passing yards. Making matters worse this week is Mariota’s quad, which has him listed as questionable on the latest injury report.
The Jags (0-2) are not much better. Jacksonville lost its starting quarterback Nick Foles in the first quarter of Game 1 against Kansas City. Backup Gardner Minshew has played well and even did his best to beat Houston last week but came up a two-point conversion short.
Jacksonville has only won two of its last 10 games. In those 10 games, the Jags highest point total is 26 which was done in that Week 1 loss to the Chiefs. The Jags are also just 3-7 against Tennessee in their last 10 meetings. The Titans have won the last four straight.
You might be tempted by the Under. Who wouldn’t with two teams that historically are not offensive juggernauts, but with the Total at 39, I don’t like it. Over their last 10 matchups, the Titans and Jags have combined for an average of just over 42 points per game.
What I do like is this. Gardner Minshew and Leonard Fournette running against the 26th-ranked rush defense in the NFL. I like Minshew’s late touchdown drive last week and while Jacksonville didn’t win, they covered against heavily favored Houston. The Jags are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played in September.