Soon, Selection Sunday will be upon us and one of the most glorious times of the sports year will finally be back. The 2021 NCAA tournament field will be announced on March 14 and with it the 68-team March Madness bracket.
It is the hope of everyone entering an office pool, an online pool, or some form of bracket challenge to correctly pick enough wins to take home whatever the grand prize may be.
Where to Bet on March Madness 2021
To aid in filling out your March Madness bracket this year, we offer these tips.
Work Backwards
It would be in your best interest to start with the Final Four and work backwards. Here’s why. You will be tempted to pick a number of potential upsets in Round 1. Yes, there will be a few upsets.
Since the NCAA expanded the tournament field 35 years ago, there has been an average of 12 upsets throughout the entire tournament.
By upset, we are talking about a team seeded at least two places below its opponent. A ninth seed beating a tenth seed is not an upset, but a No. 6 beating a No. 3 is.
Over the course of the past 35 tournaments, there have only been 14 instances where a seed lower than No. 6 has made the Final Four. The lowest seed to ever win a national championship was No. 8. That was Villanova back in 1985. Connecticut won as a No. 7 seed in 2014.
In the past five tournaments since UConn’s win, four No. 1 seeds and one No. 2 seed have won national titles.
The point here is that more often than not the top four seeds in a region are more likely to make it to the Final Four than the other twelve. So, start with the Final Four and work backwards.
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Picking Upsets
If we just had a crystal ball, it would be all good. Since we don’t, we have to pick upsets wisely. Only once has a No. 1 seed lost in the first round. There have only been eight No. 2 seeds to ever lose in Round 1. The most recent No. 2 to lose was Michigan State in 2016.
The most upsets occur in the first round. If an average of 12 upsets happens every tournament, roughly six of those will come in Round 1.
The highest number of upsets comes from the No. 7-No. 10 first-round game. Since 1985, there have been 55 No. 10 seeds that have won their first-round game. That includes three in the last tournament in 2019.
Florida, Iowa, and Minnesota all won their first-round games in the 2019 March Madness. Typically, No. 10 seeds are either Power conference teams that are good but got beaten up in a tough league or they are one of the best teams in a mid-major conference. VCU (2016), Wichita State (2017), and Butler (2018) are all great examples of mid-major No. 10 seeds that won a first-round tournament game.
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Picking Upsets II
The number of upsets will decrease by round. You should figure on half of the number of upsets from the previous round. If you pick six in the first round, you will pick no more than three in Round 2.
As you move on to the second round, it is worth remembering that the No. 6 seed has beaten the No. 3 seed 28 times since 1985. The No. 7 seed has 25 wins over the No. 2 seed in Round 2.
History says that at least one No. 2 and one No. 3 will lose in the second round. Your job is to do the research and pick the right one to exit. In the 2019 tournament, all the second and third seeds won their second-round games.
Hopefully, these tips can help you to defeat your competition in this year’s bracket challenge or office pool.
