Today’s AFL Free Total Pick | Essendon vs. Fremantle

Somehow, Australian sports haven’t been postponed yet. The AFL season is just getting underway this week and because of the coronavirus, the matches are being played without any fans.

So far, I’ve gone 3-0-2 in my first five free picks on SAS, but those were all NHL picks. I’m going to put my undefeated record on the line while predicting the match total in Friday night’s AFL match!

Well, the match is on Friday night if you live in the United States or Canada.


Game: Essendon Bombers (0-0) vs. Fremantle Dockers (0-0)

When: 10:45 PM ET, Friday, March 20th, 2020

Where: Marvel Stadium, Docklands, Australia

Current Line: Essendon (-220) vs. Fremantle (+180)

Point Spread: Essendon -14.5 (-110) vs. Fremantle +14.5 (-110)

Total: Over 152.5 (-110) vs. Under 152.5 (-110)


Essendon will host Fremantle in Round 1 to kick-off the shortened AFL season.

Last season, the Bombers went 12-10 (7-4 at home) to finish in 8th place. They earned the final spot in the Finals Series, but they were eliminated in the opening round against West Coast (116-61).

Fremantle struggled again last season and finished 13th on the ladder with a 9-13 record. Fremantle were terrible in away matches, going 2-9, which was the second worst away record in the AFL in 2019.


It’s likely the Bombers are going to win this match. However, how much is playing at Marvel Stadium going to matter when there are no fans in attendance? Essendon have had a lot of success against Fremantle over the years and I like them on the ML (-220) if you parlay that with another AFL pick.

Head-to-Head Trends

These two teams have played each other twice in each of the last three seasons. The Bombers went 4-2 in that span and they have won the last three H2H matches against the Dockers.

Last season, Essendon won a close match at home (60-53) in Round 9 and then they followed that up by blowing out Fremantle (87-55) at the Optus Stadium in Round 22.


AFL Highlights: 2019 Rd 9 - Fremantle vs. Essendon


Both of the H2H matches in 2019 stayed under the total and neither match exceeded 150 points.

Essendon are on a 12-1 run at home when playing against Fremantle.


Both teams are banged up and suffered multiple injuries during the pre-season.

Essendon will be missing a pair of key contributors in Dyson Heppell and Cale Hooker. Fremantle also have multiple players unavailable for selection, including Stefan Giro and Hayden Young.

Fremantle will have James Aish and Sam Sturt available, both are making their Dockers debut.

Bet on the Under

My best bet in this match is on the under, but get on it quick, it’s dropping fast. Both matches last season were low scoring, and with both teams being bitten by the injury bug, I expect another low-scoring match that Essendon wins.

Fremantle could be a bit more dangerous this season too, especially if they get off to a good start.

They have multiple promising newcomers that should improve the team’s performance and I’m sure new coach, Justin Longmuir, will have his guys motivated to keep this one close.

Today’s AFL Free Pick: Essendon vs. Fremantle Under 152.5 Points (-110)

Pick by Scott

About the Author

Scott is one of our newest writer and handicapper here at, but he has been writing sports betting content for more than a decade online. His work has been featured on many websites.


Scott is a millennial (born in 1989) who grew up in Toronto, Canada and he has never left the big city. He grew up playing a few sports (hockey, soccer and baseball) when he was younger. His favorite sport was hockey and he played goalie. He still likes to get out to the rinks to play some pick-up with his buddies.


Growing up in Toronto, Scott is a huge fan of all Toronto teams.


He watches the Maple Leafs and Raptors religiously. Scott also enjoys watching the Blue Jays, Argonauts and TFC.


His best sports memory was when the Raptors were crowned the 2019 NBA Champions. Unfortunately, he’s still waiting for the Maple Leafs to win a Stanley Cup during his lifetime.


Scott may be a diehard fan of Toronto sports teams, but he loves watching all sports. He’s a huge UFC fan (look for his UFC betting articles for most events) and he’ll watch just about anything, including tennis, golf, soccer and cricket.


Scott is a numbers guy and he likes digging deep into the statistics when handicapping games. He also likes to identify value bets in markets most bettors overlook, including player/team props.


When he’s not handicapping and watching sports, he enjoys golfing in the warmer months. He also loves burgers and poutine. Not only is that his favorite meal, but he has tried over 100 burgers in Toronto and he’s constantly looking for the best new burgers in the city.