It’s likely the Bombers are going to win this match. However, how much is playing at Marvel Stadium going to matter when there are no fans in attendance? Essendon have had a lot of success against Fremantle over the years and I like them on the ML (-220) if you parlay that with another AFL pick.
These two teams have played each other twice in each of the last three seasons. The Bombers went 4-2 in that span and they have won the last three H2H matches against the Dockers.
Last season, Essendon won a close match at home (60-53) in Round 9 and then they followed that up by blowing out Fremantle (87-55) at the Optus Stadium in Round 22.
AFL Highlights: 2019 Rd 9 - Fremantle vs. Essendon
Both of the H2H matches in 2019 stayed under the total and neither match exceeded 150 points.
Essendon are on a 12-1 run at home when playing against Fremantle.
Both teams are banged up and suffered multiple injuries during the pre-season.
Essendon will be missing a pair of key contributors in Dyson Heppell and Cale Hooker. Fremantle also have multiple players unavailable for selection, including Stefan Giro and Hayden Young.
Fremantle will have James Aish and Sam Sturt available, both are making their Dockers debut.
Bet on the Under
My best bet in this match is on the under, but get on it quick, it’s dropping fast. Both matches last season were low scoring, and with both teams being bitten by the injury bug, I expect another low-scoring match that Essendon wins.
Fremantle could be a bit more dangerous this season too, especially if they get off to a good start.
They have multiple promising newcomers that should improve the team’s performance and I’m sure new coach, Justin Longmuir, will have his guys motivated to keep this one close.
Today’s AFL Free Pick: Essendon vs. Fremantle Under 152.5 Points (-110)
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