I was trying to explain to somebody why one of the things I use when analyzing props is to examine the individual pitcher-batter matchup. It’s not just a matter of the best pitchers being able to handle weak hitters, and strong hitters beating up on lesser pitchers.
It’s sometimes a situation where the “styles,” for lack of a better word, have an impact. I use a boxing example. Roberto Duran gave Marvin Hagler fits when the two fought each other in 1983, as he was actually ahead on the scorecards after 13 rounds. Then Thomas Hearns turned around and smoked Duran, with extreme prejudice, in the second round. But Hagler then knocked out Hearns in the third round. Joe Frazier and Ken Norton both had a win over Muhammad Ali, but got blown away by George Foreman. And of course, Ali took care of business against Foreman.
Styles make fights, and lots of things go into it. With that said, we look at some strong MLB hitting props plays for Tuesday’s MLB card.
MLB Hitting Props Predictions (August 3)
JOEY VOTTO (Cincinnati Reds) OVER 0.5 RUNS (-115)
Opponent: MINNESOTA TWINS (Kenta Maeda)
Time: 7:10 PM ET
Remember that Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda (4-4, 4.40 ERA) pitched in the National League for four seasons with the Dodgers. So he’s familiar with Votto.
And Votto is familiar with him too. The Cincinnati first baseman has stepped to the plate ten times against Maeda and reached base five times. He’s got a homer among those ten trips.
There is nothing strange about Votto reaching base either. Although we admit that he is not the player he was when he was winning the MVP award, but it is noteworthy that he has topped .400 in on base percentage nine times in his career. This season, he’s 21 homers and a .371 on base, which is way above the big league average.
Keep in mind that, essentially, the world of baseball analytics started with the idea that you can’t score if you don’t get on base, soit’s very valuable to do just that. And Votto gets on plenty, which puts us in enough of a spot to pull the trigger here.
BRYCE HARPER (Philadelphia Phillies) UNDER 0.5 RBI’S (-175)
Opponent: WASHINGTON NATIONALS (starter – Patrick Corbin)
Time: 7:05 PM ET
Yeah, the oddsmakers are kind of wise to this, but we don’t feel so out of line hitting this prop again. After all, take a look at Harper’s stat line against Patrick Corbin, which includes a .286 average but also 13 strikeouts (that’s a pretty healthy 39% of plate appearances) and ONE run batted in.
So even though it may sound counter-intuitive to some of you, this does make a certain amount of sense.
CODY BELLINGER (Los Angeles Dodgers) UNDER 0.5 HITS (+115)
Opponent: HOUSTON ASTROS (starter – Lance McCullers)
Time: 10:10 PM ET
Lance McCullers has been around for awhile, so naturally he has some experience against some of the Dodgers, particularly Albert Pujols, who is batting just .154 lifetime against him in 29 plate appearances. But the future Hall of Famer is no certainty to see action on any given day, because the Dodgers have a lot of starter-level players. As of this writing, we haven’t seen any numbers on him, but for bettors who eventually see something, I would think “under” if I were you.
Let’s concentrate instead on someone McCullers has never faced in the regular season. Cody Bellinger, like Pujols a past MVP, has been nothing short of befuddled by McCullers. In Game 3 of the 2017 World Series, he came up three times and struck out swinging every time. Then in Game 7, which McCullers started for the Astros, Bellinger faced him twice and – that’s right – struck out swinging both times. That’s five at bats and five K’s. So we’re taking this price, for sure.
CHARLIE BLACKMON (Colorado Rockies) UNDER 1.5 HITS (-165)
Opponent: CHICAGO CUBS (starter – Zach Davies)
Time: 8:40 PM ET
Is there anyone left on the Chicago Cubs? Well, there’s right-hander Zach Davies (6-7, 4.39), who may not be having a bang-up season but has done better than most in his three career starts at Coors Field, with a 2.30 ERA, 0.957 WHIP ratio and opponents’ .190 batting average.
And he has been particularly effective against Charlie Blackmon. It’s interesting that Blackmon hit 127 homers during one four-year stretch, but only has six round-trippers this season.
And against Davies, he is just 3-of-18 with one walk, no extra base hits, no RBI’s and five strikeouts. So attaining the 1.5 hits required to beat this prop might be quite a feat.
EUGENIO SUAREZ (Cincinnati Reds) UNDER 0.5 HITS (+120)
Opponent: MINNESOTA TWINS (Kenta Maeda)
Time: 7:10 PM ET
For this one, we return to Cincinnati-Minnesota and Joey Votto’s teammate, with a different expectation. This one, I would say, is pretty academic; Maeda has had Eugenio Suarez’s number. He’s faced the Reds’ third baseman on ten occasions and given up only one hit, and he has registered three strikeouts.
Not that “fanning” would be any surprise. Suarez would seem to be the kind of hitter who fits right into the way the game is played in 2021, which is to say that he swings for the fences (20 homers) with the understanding that he is going to be swinging and missing a lot (128 K’s).
And that’s good for us here.
Read our guides on betting MLB home run props and MLB strikeouts props.
