The NFL passing yards prop bet is one of the more popular NFL player props among bettors. This year, bettors must realize that this prop bet will be a little different.
Remember, the NFL is going to a 17-game schedule which will force bettors to adjust their thinking when placing this prop bet. Up until now, only eight quarterbacks have ever had a 5,000-yard passing season. That’s about to change.
How much of a difference will that extra game make? We will see this season. Here’s a look at the top five NFL passing yards props picks for 2021.
NFL Regular Season Passing Yards Props
MATT RYAN OVER 4500.5 (+100)
Ryan has been a manufacturer of passing yards since the day he first started in Atlanta in 2008. He has thrown for over 4,000 yards in every season since 2011. For his career, Ryan has passed for 55,767 yards, an average of 272 yards per game.
To hit 4501, he’ll need to average just under 265 yards a game if he plays all 17 games. Ryan has played all 16 games in a season in all but two of his 13 NFL years. His yards per game averages over the last three seasons are 286, 297.7, and 307.8.
Sure, he loses Julio Jones, but Ryan still has WR Calvin Ridley, TE Hayden Hurst, and he’ll now have rookie TE Kyle Pitts. The Falcons offense goes as Ryan goes and that is going to produce more than 4501 passing yards, a value pick at +100.
RUSSELL WILSON UNDER 4250.5 (-112)
Wilson is one of the game’s best and toys with the league MVP award almost every year. Last year, he averaged 263 yards per game. If you multiply that by 17, you’ll get 4,471 which would eclipse this year’s total.
So, how is it that Wilson is going Under? Here’s how.
Wilson and Seattle play in the NFC West. Two – Rams and 49ers – of the top five teams in pass defense last season are in the division. That’s four games. The Seahawks also play the other three teams in the top five in pass defense – Pittsburgh, Washington, and New Orleans. That’s seven games against the best pass defenses in the NFL.
Arizona, who Seattle will play twice, and Green Bay are also on the schedule. Both the Cardinals and Packers were top ten pass defenses.
Wilson would need to average 250 yards per game to go Over 4250.5. For his career, Wilson averages 235.7 yards per game. Wilson has eclipsed 4,000 yards in each of the past two seasons, but prior to that had only hit the mark twice.
Wilson will have a tough go of it this season and will end up Under 4250.5.
CARSON WENTZ OVER 3750.5 (+100)
Who doesn’t love a comeback? For everyone that has written off Wentz, realize that he only has to pass for 220.6 yards per game to go Over 3750.5. There’s a reason why Wentz was drafted at No. 2 in 2016. He’s good.
In a run-heavy offense in Indy, Wentz will benefit from the play-action pass. He’ll have competent receivers in T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr., and Parris Campbell. Don’t forget TE Jack Doyle.
In his first four seasons in the NFL, Wentz averaged 252, 279, 253, and 236 yards per game. His worst season was last year. Wentz threw for just 2,620 yards in 12 games, but even that was an average of 218 yards a game.
Under center on a playoff-caliber team, Wentz will thrive and go over.
BAKER MAYFIELD, CLEVELAND UNDER 3850.5 (+100)
Mayfield has been solid as a full-time starter for the Browns. Cleveland is a run-first type of offense. The Browns finished third in the NFL in rushing (148.4 YPG) last season.
Mayfield threw for 3,563 yards, an average of 222.7 yards a game. If you convert his total last year to 17 games, Mayfield would have thrown for 3,786 yards which is short of this year’s total of 3850.5. The Browns quarterback would need to average 226.5 yards per game this season.
Like Wilson, Mayfield will play seven games against five top ten pass defenses. With the Browns reliance on the run game, Mayfield will find it difficult to surpass 3850.5 for the season.
JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO OVER 4500.5 (+108)
Allen proved he belonged among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks leading the Bills to the AFC championship game while throwing for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns in the process.
Can Allen hit 4,500 yards again? One would think some regression will occur, but remember Allen gets an extra game to hit the 4,500-yard mark. He averaged 284 passing yards per game last season. He only needs to average 265 this season. At plus-money, it’s a bet worth taking.
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