The public took it on the chin in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season as nine of 12 underdogs won games outright. Underdogs went 12-4 ATS in the Week 1, a shock to the betting public.
Will the dogs bite again in Week 2? Coach Rick nailed two of three last week losing out on another upset when Justin Herbert threw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter as the favored Chargers held off Washington. Here’s a look at the top three NFL Week 2 moneyline underdogs.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens led the Raiders 14-0 early last week. Then, they gave up 17 fourth-quarter points to allow Las Vegas to tie and eventually win in overtime. That won’t happen in Week 2.
The Chiefs have had the Ravens number in recent years. The two teams have played in each of the past three seasons and Kansas City has them all. Last year’s game early in the season was the only one that wasn’t close. KC won 34-20 after winning 33-28 in 2019 and 27-24 in OT in 2018.
Kansas City beat Cleveland in Week 1, but needed a late comeback in order to do so. Two Patrick Mahomes fourth-quarter touchdown passes were the difference. KC gave up 153 rushing yards to the Browns. That’s what Baltimore does best.
Here’s the thing. Since 2003, teams that lose in Week 1 as a favorite and are an underdog in Week 2 come back to cover the spread roughly 64 percent of the time. Those dogs that play at home in Week 2 cover nearly 77 percent of the time.
Baltimore will not only cover this week. They will rebound in a big way and get a huge win at home over the Chiefs.
Best Moneyline Pick: RAVENS +170
Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts
Maybe Coach Rick didn’t see the beat-down applied by the Seattle Seahawks to the Colts last week. The Indy defense was carved up nicely by Russell Wilson to the tune of four touchdown passes as Seattle won 28-16.
The Rams, on the other hand, put it to the Bears 34-14 in QB Matthew Stafford’s debut in LA. So, why Indy? Well, Jonathan Taylor had just 56 yards rushing. He’ll play better. The Colts defense will play better and they are due to break their streak as an underdog. Indianapolis is 0-8 SU in their last eight games as a dog. That ends on Sunday.
Best Moneyline Pick: COLTS +175
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Two rookie quarterbacks square off in New York in Week 2. Both Mac Jones (NE) and Zach Wilson (NY) played well in Week 1. Both teams lost close games and look to rebound in Week 2.
The Patriots are actually 1-4 SU in their last five games. The Jets allowed their rookie quarterback, Wilson, to get sacked six times last week by Carolina. That needs to change.
Both teams will likely have trouble putting points on the board just like they did in Week 1. This game will likely be decided by a field goal or less, which means the home team has a chance. Plus, since 2003, Week 2 underdogs win outright at a 55 percent clip.
Best Moneyline Pick: JETS +215
