UFC 246 Odds and Predictions: McGregor vs. Cerrone

UFC 246 is this Saturday, January 18th, 2020, at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise Nevada.

We’ve had a three-week holiday hiatus, but we could have a fight of the year candidate on the first fight card of 2020, as Conor McGregor steps back into the cage to fight Donald Cerrone.

UFC 246 Main Event: McGregor vs. Cerrone Pick

  • America’s Bookie UFC 246 Fight Odds: McGregor (-337) vs. Cerrone (+277) / O1.5 Rounds (-120) vs. U1.5 Rounds (-110)

The last time we saw Mcgregor (21-4) in the cage he was getting choked out by Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 in October 2018. Since then, Conor has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons.

He needs this win badly to remain the big money fight and he couldn’t have a better match-up.

Cerrone (36-12-0-1) has lost his last two fights by TKO. Ferguson defeated him at UFC 238 in June and then Gaethje finished Cowboy in the opening round at UFC Fight Night 158.

It’s no secret these two don’t like each other and that’s why I expect them to both throw strategy out the window in this fight. I expect both guys to stand and bang until someone gets knocked out.

McGregor has 18 TKO/KO wins, while Cerrone has 10 TKO/KO wins. Cowboy has 17 submission wins, but his last win by submission was five fights ago against Perry at UFC Fight Night 139.

I believe age is catching up to Cerrone. McGregor has the explosiveness and power to win this fight by TKO/KO early on. If he fails to do so, he’s likely going to lose, as his stamina is horrendous.

  • Best Bet: McGregor to win by TKO/KO (-210)

 

 


UFC 246: MCGREGOR VS. CERRONE PRE-FIGHT PRESS CONFERENCE


 

UFC 246 Co-Main Event: Holm vs. Pennington Picks

  • Current UFC 246 Fight Odds: Holm (-140) vs. Pennington (+120) / O2.5 Rounds (-600) vs. U2.5 Rounds (+425)

This fight can go either way to be honest. Holly Holm (12-5) has struggled since beating Rousey by KO at UFC 193 in 2015. Since that memorable KO, she has gone just 2-5 in the UFC.

Holm is coming off the biggest defeat in her career, as she was KO’ed for the first time by Nunes.

Raquel Pennington (10-7) has been with the UFC since 2013. These two fought back in 2015 at UFC 184 and Holm ended up winning a very close fight by split decision.

Since losing to Holm, Pennington has gone 5-2 in the UFC the last several years. She has picked up wins against Andrade (Submission), Correia (Decision) and Tate (Decision).

Holm has a striking and power edge, but Pennington is the better grappler and more active. Holm also utilizes power kicks to keep her opponent at a distance.

My money is on Holm to outpoint Pennington and win by decision again in the rematch.

  • Best Bet: Holm ML (-140) or Holm to win by Decision (+115)

 

UFC 246 Main Card Best Bets and Predictions

The UFC 246 is far from stacked, but that has become common when McGregor is headlining a card in recent years, as his popularity alone will be enough to sell plenty of PPVs.

 

  • Bet on Oleinik ML (+107) vs. Greene (-137)

Alexey Oleinik (57-13-1) joined the UFC in 2014 and he has a 6-4 record with the promotion. Oleinik is on a 2-fight losing streak with losses to Overeem (TKO) and Harris (KO).

Maurice Greene (8-3) is relatively new to fighting. He joined the UFC in 2018 and has a 3-1 record, although he lost his last fight against Pavlovich by TKO in the first round.

The Russian has 45 submissions wins in his career and he has been able to tap out some great opponents over the years. Oleinik will take this fight to the mat and tap out Greene.

 

  • Bet on Gadelha (-111) vs. Grasso (-109)

Alexa Grasso (11-3) is 3-3 in the UFC and coming off a loss to Esparza in September. Grasso has done well to develop her striking and she has some power, but this is a tough fight for her.

Grasso has struggled against wrestlers. Her three career losses have all come against wrestlers and Claudia Gadelha (17-4) is a great wrestler with plenty of UFC experience against top fighters.

Gadelha averages 3.3 takedowns per 15 minutes (47% accuracy). If Gadelha takes this fight to the mat she should be able to outpoint Grasso, but this is another close fight with differing styles.

 

  • Bet on Pettis (+210) vs. Ferreira (-250)

If you want to bet on this fight I recommend the underdog. Anthony Pettis (22-9) has fought the top fighters at multiple divisions in his career, but he has struggled with consistency.

Some nights he looks unstoppable, while others he gets beat up.

This has been evident in his last two fights. He shocked Thompson with a superman punch KO, but then was beat up by Diaz.

Diego Ferreira (16-2) has flown under the radar for years. He’s 7-2 in the UFC and on a 5-fight win streak, but he lacks a statement win against a big name. He’ll get his chance on Saturday.

Both Brazilians are excellent at jiu-jitsu and any fight Pettis is in can go either way, as he has some insane knockouts throughout his career. I’ll side with the value on the underdog here.

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