UFC 250 Main Event - Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer Picks
Fight Odds: Nunes (-612) vs. Spencer (+437)
America’s Bookie have the best odds on Nunes by far out of all US sportsbooks. A lot of books have Nunes priced at –650. The closest line to AB is from BetOnline (Nunes –625).
While I won’t be betting on Nunes to win straight-up, she’ll be on my UFC parlays this weekend and you’re getting the most value on her by placing your parlays this weekend with America’s Bookie.
Now to the fight...
Nunes (19-4) is going to defeat Felicia Spencer (8-1), but I’m not interested in betting on her other than on my parlays, which we’ll be discussing later on in this UFC 250 betting guide.
This will be the first title defense at featherweight for Nunes after winning the belt by knocking out Cris Cyborg in 2018. She defended her bantamweight belt twice in 2019 – defeating Holly Holm by TKO and Germaine de Randamie (Decision). This is her first fight in 2020.
Spencer is 2-1 in the UFC with wins against Megan Anderson (Submission) and Zarah Fairn dos Santos (TKO). She lost her second UFC fight to Cyborg by decision at UFC 240.
Spencer is dangerous on the ground because of elite grappling and submissions, but her problem in this fight is that Nunes is a strong grappler as well and has a huge edge in striking. Nunes averages 4.34 SLpM and only 2.63 SApM, while Spencer averages 4.54 SLpM and 6.27 SApM.
UFC 250: Inside the Octagon - Nunes vs Spencer
Spencer was eaten up by Cyborg who landed 122 strikes in three rounds. Nunes hits hard, is deadly accurate and I don’t expect any big surprises in the UFC 250 main event.
I have Nunes winning by TKO/KO, but her odds to win inside the distance are –265. After going the distance in her last fight, I’m not laying –265 here. I’ll use her in my UFC 250 parlays only.
This is a pretty weak co-main event for a pay-per-view card.
Garbrandt (11-3) defeated Dominick Cruz in 2016 for the bantamweight title, but since that victory, he has three straight losses. He lost twice to T.J. Dillashaw (2017 and 2018). He then lost his lone fight last year to Pedro Munhoz. All three of these losses were by TKO/KO.
After losing his UFC debut in 2011 to Erik Koch, Assuncao went on an 11-1 run that lasted until 2018. His lone loss was to Dillashaw in 2016 (Decision). In 2019, his run ended. He lost both of his fights last year against Marlon Moraes (Submission) and Cory Sandhagen (Decision).
This fight should stay standing up. Garbrandt has never been taken down in a UFC fight. I have the edge in this fight going to Garbrandt. He has solid striking and footwork. His problem is his temper, but let’s hope he has matured a bit. Don’t forget, Garbrandt is still only 28 years old.
Best Bet: Cody Garbrandt ML (-150) at America’s Bookie
UFC 250 Main Card Best Bets
Here are my two best bets from the rest of the UFC 250 fight card.
Bet on Aljamain Sterling ML (-120) at America’s Bookie
Sterling (18-3) fights Cory Sandhagen (12-1) on the main card in an intriguing fight. Sterling is well on his way to a title fight at bantamweight, but a loss on Saturday would be a major setback.
Sandhagen is a dangerous foe as well. He’s 5-0 in the UFC with three stoppage wins. He’s coming off decision wins against John Lineker and Assuncao. Sandhagen is averaging a whopping 7.14 SLpM, as he has utilized his reach (70’’), however, Sterling has an even longer reach (71’’).
Sterling is also the more athletic fighter here. He has looked great recently. Since 2018, he’s 4-0. He won both of his fights in 2019 by decision against Jimmie Rivera and Munhoz. Sterling needs to mix his wrestling into his game plan here. He has to avoid a stand and bang fight.
Bet on Neil Magny ML (-141) at BetOnline
Magny (22-7) surprised many when he defeated Jingliang Li (Decision) earlier this year after a long layoff. Prior to the win, his last fight was way back in 2018, which he lost to Ponzinibbio (KO).
His opponent, Anthony Rocco Martin (17-5), is no slouch. Since moving to welterweight in 2018, Martin is on a 5-1 run, which includes an impressive KO against Ryan LaFlare at UFC 229.
Martin’s lone loss in the division happened last year against Demian Maia (Decision). Magny is a well-rounded fighter that works in striking and takedowns well. He also utilizes his reach. His 80’’ reach is a massive advantage in the cage. He’ll have a 7’’ reach advantage against Martin.
Magny wins by decision, as Martin struggles to close the distance and land big strikes.
UFC 250 Parlay
Here’s my #1 UFC 250 parlay:
Nunes + O’Malley + Stamann (-108 Odds) at America’s Bookie
I like this parlay a lot and we’re getting almost even money here.
Sean O’Malley (11-0) fights veteran Eddie Wineland (24-13-1). The promising youngster is undefeated and I don’t see that changing here. Cody Stamann (18-2-1) fights Brian Kelleher (21-10). Stamann has excellent wrestling. I expect him to take the fight to the mat and submit his opponent.
UFC 250 Betting Lines
Amanda Nunes (-612) vs. Felicia Spencer (+437)
Cody Garbrandt (-150) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+120)
Aljamain Sterling (-120) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-110)
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