The UFC is on pay-per-view (PPV) this Saturday. UFC 253 will be hosted on “Fight Island” (Abu Dhabi) and the fight card is relatively stacked, but there could still be late cancellations.
Last weekend, I ended up going 2-1 on my UFC on ESPN+ 36 picks, as the Price-Cerrone fight ended in a majority draw and the stake was refunded. I got a bit lucky with that call, as Price didn’t look good.
I ended up profiting +1.34 units, which means I’m on a 12-2 (+12.44 units) run the last four events.
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Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa Predictions
Fight Odds: Adesanya (-180) vs. Costa (+150)
The UFC Middleweight Championship will be on the line in the main event.
Adesanya (19-0) and Costa (13-0) are both undefeated, but that’s almost certainly going to change on Saturday. Adesanya is 8-0 in the UFC and Costa is 5-0 in the UFC.
Adesanya is more battle-tested with wins against Brunson, Silva, Gastelum, Whittaker and Romero.
Costa’s biggest win came against Romero in his last fight. Costa is a threat to finish any fight quickly with his power. He has 11 TKO/KO wins, including four knockout wins in the UFC.
He knocked out his first four opponents, but won by decision against Romero.
Adesanya is a more technical fighter, but he lacks one-hit power like Costa. Neither of these fighters have landed a takedown in a professional fight, so expect a striking war.
Costa averages 8.43 SLpM (57% accuracy) compared to 3.96 SLpM (48% accuracy) for Adesanya.
Adesanya will have an 8’’ reach advantage (80’’ vs. 72’’), though. Costa has poor striking defense as well. He averages 6.84 SApM (53% defense), while Adesanya averages 2.40 SaPM (65% defense).
I see a lot of people betting on the underdog here and while he could finish this fight early on with his power, I’m not sure how he’s going to be able to close the distance.
Best Bet: Israel Adesanya ML (-180) at America’s Bookie
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Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz Predictions
Fight Odds: Reyes (-285) vs. Blachowicz (+225)
We’re going to have a new UFC Light Heavyweight Champion this weekend.
Since Jon Jones vacated his LHW title, Reyes (12-1) and Blachowicz (26-8) will get a shot. This will be the second shot for Reyes, as he lost his last fight to Jones earlier this year.
Blachowicz was close to earning a title shot last year before being knocked out by Santos, but he has since bounced back with three wins against Rockhold (KO), Souza (Decision) and Anderson (KO).
After going five rounds against Jones, it’s tough to bet against Reyes here. However, Blachowicz has been an underdog in 7 of his last 8 fights and he won six times as a dog.
Blachowicz is another fighter I don’t like betting against.
My best bet in the co-main event is over 2.5 rounds (-120). Reyes has never been stopped and the Polish fighter has eight losses, but has only been stopped in three of those fights.
With this fight being five rounds, I expect both fighters to feel each other out a bit.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-120)
Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval Predictions
Fight Odds: Kara-France (-237) vs. Royval (+187)
I can’t pass up the price on Royval (11-4) against Kara-France (21-8-0-1). Kara-France is 4-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming against Moreno. Royval is 1-0 in the UFC with a win against Elliott.
Royval is a submission specialist (7 wins by submission). He tapped out Elliott in his debut on short notice. Kara-France has been tapped twice in his career and I predict him tapping on Saturday.
Best Bet: Brandon Royval ML (+187) at America’s Bookie
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UFC 253 Parlay Picks
Here are my best parlay picks for UFC 253 this weekend:
Adesanya ML + Matthews ML + Espino ML (+136 Odds)
Jake Matthews (16-4) is a massive favorite against veteran Diego Sanchez (30-12). Matthews has won 5 of his last 6 fights and should have little problem putting away the damaged 38-year-old.
I’m also adding Juan Espino (9-1) to defeat Jeff Hughes (10-3-0-1).
We haven’t seen Espino fight in the UFC yet after winning TUF 28 in 2018. Hughes is 0-2-0-1 in the UFC and Espino should have little problem taking the fight to the ground and winning by submission.
UFC 253 Betting Lines
Israel Adesanya (-180) vs. Paulo Costa (+150)
Dominick Reyes (-285) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+225)
Kai Kara-France (-237) vs. Brandon Royval (+187)
Ketlen Vieira (-190) vs. Sijara Eubanks (+160)
Zubaira Tukhugov (-125) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (-105)
Brad Riddell (-325) vs. Alex Da Silva (+255)
Jake Matthews (-707) vs. Diego Sanchez (+492)
Shane Young (-125) vs. Ludovit Klein (-105)
Aleksa Camur (-167) vs. William Knight (+137)
Juan Espino (-300) vs. Jeff Hughes (+240)
Khadis Ibragimov (-162) vs. Danilo Marques (+132)
