UFC 261 is tomorrow and will be hosted in front of a full crowd in Jacksonville, Florida.
It’s going to be a hot ticket in Florida this weekend, as there are three title fights scheduled, which will make this the most stacked fight card so far this year.
We missed UFC on ESPN 22 last week, but the week prior we went 4-0 (+5.29 units) on the UFC on ABC 2 card, including a parlay that cashed. That was my first UFC event in 2021, so we’ll look to stay undefeated this weekend.
Best Bets for the Three UFC 261 Title Fights
Since you’re likely looking to bet on the three big titles fights, I’ll start by sharing my best bets for these three fights. We won’t spend too much time discussing each selection.
Best Bet: Kamaru Usman By Decision (-115)
Kamaru Usman (18-1) is undefeated in the UFC (13-0). He’s already coming off a TKO win over Burns earlier this year. Prior to that he defeated Jorge Masvidal (35-14) last year by decision.
Will anything change in the rematch? I’m not banking on it. Masvidal has a puncher’s chance early on, but as this fight progresses, Usman will be able to utilize his grappling to stifle Masvidal.
Usman has only finished half his fights (8 TKO/KO and 1 Submission).
Best Bet: Weili Zhang Inside the Distance (+200)
Weili Zhang (21-1) is also undefeated in the UFC (5-0). In those five fights, she only had two finishes, a submission against Aguilar in 2018 and a TKO against Andrade in 2019.
Rose Namajunas (9-4) is a warrior, but we know she can be knocked out. Andrade knocked her out last July, but Rose bounced back to win by split decision in May of last year.
Namajunas has the technical striking edge, a small reach advantage and she has fought the best in her career, but Zhang can make a huge statement tomorrow night by winning ITD.
Can Namajunas handle eating 6.38 SLpM, especially since many of them have a lot of power?
Best Bet: Valentina Shevchenko Inside the Distance (+125)
In the third title fight, Valentina Shevchenko (20-3) will fight Jessica Andrade (21-8).
Andrade recently moved to the flyweight division and she looked great in her debut, as she was able to knockout Chookagian in the first round. However, Shevchenko is a different monster.
Shevchenko has a cunning ability to control fights and expose even the toughest of women. Since losing to Nunes in 2017, she’s 6-0 with three stoppage wins and three decisions.
The reason I’m betting on her ITD is because Andrade has only gone a full five rounds once. She has been knocked out three times, including not too long ago against Zhang.
UFC 261 Parlay Predictions
I don’t think we have to get crazy here. Parlaying the three current champions is a great bet.
Usman ML + Zhang ML + Shevchenko ML (+134 Odds)
I’ll have these three favorites spread across various parlays tomorrow night. The one that scares me the most is Zhang, but Namajunas is going to struggle to deal with Zhang’s power for five rounds.
UFC 261 Underdog Predictions
There are several appealing underdogs on the UFC 261 fight card – here are my top two:
Best Bet: Uriah Hall ML (+105)
Uriah Hall (16-9) will be fighting Chris Weidman (15-5) on the UFC 261 main card.
I’ve seen a lot of handicappers jumping on Weidman, but let’s take a look at this fight. Hall is 3-0 in his last three fights with two TKO/KO wins. Hall has 12 career wins by TKO/KO.
Wideman won his last fight against Akhmedov by decision last year. However, he’s just 2-5 in his last seven fights and guess what? He was knocked out in all of those five losses.
With Wideman’s chin questionable and Hall’s power, I’ll take a shot on the underdog here.
Best Bet: Alex Oliveira ML (+135)
Alex Oliveira (22-9-1-2) is an underdog against Randy Brown (12-4) this weekend.
Oliveira has stated he wants Robbie Lawler next after defeating Brown. I like the confidence. Cowboy went 0-2 in 2019, but bounced back with a 2-1 record in 2020, although he lost his last fight.
He’s coming off a first-round submission loss to Rakhmonov. Brown is coming off a second-round KO loss to Luque. Brown lacks a signature win and I can see Oliveira grinding this one out.
If he really wants that Lawler fight, he’s going to need to put on a big performance tomorrow.
UFC 261 Betting Lines
Kamaru Usman (-400) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+300)
Weili Zhang (-200) vs. Rose Namajunas (+170)
Valentina Shevchenko (-400) vs. Jessica Andrade (+300)
Chris Wideman (-125) vs. Uriah Hall (+105)
Jimmy Crute (-200) vs. Anthony Smith (+170)
Randy Brown (-155) vs. Charles Oliveira (+135)
Dwight Grant (-220) vs. Stefan Sekulic (+180)
Brendan Allen (-160) vs. Karl Roberson (+140)
Pat Sabatini (-230) vs. Tristan Connelly (+190)
Danaa Batgerel (-185) vs. Kevin Natividad (+160)
Zhu Rong (-250) vs. Rodrigo Vargas (+210)
Jeffrey Molina (-110) vs. Qileng Aori (-110)
Ariane Carnelossi (-220) vs. Na Liang (+180)
Check out our PPH bookie reviews and sports handicappers reviews.
