UFC Fight Night 182 (UFC Vegas 14) is on Saturday at the UFC APEX Facility.
Last week, I had the main event correct, but my three plus money plays lost, leaving me 1-3 on the night (–3 units). I’ll look to bounce back and get a new streak going this weekend.
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This definitely isn’t the best card for betting, but I’ve identified a few plays to target this weekend. Let’s start with the main event between two UFC veterans.
Paul Felder vs. Rafael dos Anjos Predictions
Fight Odds: Felder (+160) vs. Dos Anjos (-190)
I see a lot of sports handicappers betting on Felder (17-5) this weekend, but Dos Anjos (29-13) shouldn’t be written off now that he’s coming back down to lightweight after struggling at welterweight.
Dos Anjos is on a 1-4 run with his lone win coming against Lee last year.
Felder hasn’t been much better and at one point he was pondering retirement. He has also said that this could be his last fight. Felder is on a 2-2 run since 2018 with wins against Vick and Barboza.
The main concern for Dos Anjos is the weight cut. Can he handle it? If he was going against a guy in his prime, I’d be more worried, but Felder is 35 years old and the Brazilian is 36 years old.
Felder has been a warrior throughout his career, having only been stopped once by Trinaldo back in 2016. Dos Anjos has been knocked out three times, but he hasn’t been since 2016 either.
Dos Anjos has more experience than Felder in five-round fights. Felder is coming off a crazy fight in February where he lost a five-round decision against Hooker by split decision.
I have Dos Anjos winning and I’m paying the juice to bet the moneyline. Could he finish Felder? I think he can win by submission, but it’s tough to bet on Felder being stopped as well.
Best Bet: Rafael dos Anjos ML (-190) at America’s Bookie
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Khaos Williams Predictions
Fight Odds: Alhassan (-237) vs. Williams (+187)
Williams (10-1) made his UFC debut in February – defeating Morono by KO in 27 seconds. That was his fifth career TKO/KO win. Alhassan (10-2) has won all of his fights in the cage by TKO/KO.
However, Alhassan lost to Lazzez in July. He hadn’t fought since defeating Price in September 2018 due to legal problems, which were eventually cleared. It may have just been some cage rust.
He didn’t look good in the loss, though. After opening at –175 odds, I’m surprised Alhassan has seen his price increase so much. There’s definitely value on the underdog in the co-main event.
Williams has a long 77’’ reach, which will give him a 4’’ reach advantage in this fight. Both fighters are strikers with power. That reach may be the difference in this fight on Saturday night.
While we don’t know a lot about Williams yet, no one can complain about his debut. If he wins this fight by TKO/KO, you can bet he won’t be priced at nearly 2/1 in his next fight.
Best Bet: Khaos Williams ML (+187)
UFC Vegas 14 Method of Victory Prop Bet
Louis Smolka (16-7) is a small favorite against Jose Quinonez (8-4). I have two bets on this fight. I’m betting on Smolka to win on the moneyline (-150) and to win by submission (+400).
Getting 4/1 on Smolka by submission is too good to pass up. Smolka has 14 stoppage wins (7 TKO/KO and 7 Submissions), but he has been tapped in two of his last three fights.
Quinonez has lost two of his last three fights. He was tapped by Wood and knocked out by O’Malley. I don’t think Smolka will be able to knock him out, but he can definitely submit him.
Best Bets: Louis Smolka ML (-150) and Smolka By Submission (+400)
UFC Vegas 14 Parlay – Moneyline Underdogs
I think we’re going to see some nice underdogs win on Saturday at UFC Fight Night 182.
Rather than a parlay with big ML favorites, I’m going with ML dogs this week. If it hits, we’re going to add a bunch of units to the bankroll, as we gear up for the upcoming UFC 255.
Here’s the parlay:
Williams ML + McKee ML (+646 Odds)
Rhys McKee (10-3-1) is coming off a rough loss to Chimaev, but prior to the loss he had some hype building up, as he had won his three previous fights by stoppage with Cage Warriors.
He fights Alex Morono (17-6-0-1) who has experience and is 5-3-0-1 in the UFC, but Morono isn’t ever going to be a contender at welterweight. McKee needs this win to build some momentum.
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UFC Vegas 14 Betting Lines
Rafael dos Anjos (-190) vs. Paul Felder (+160)
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-237) vs. Khaos Williams (+187)
Julian Marquez (-305) vs. Saparbek Safarov (+245)
Kay Hansen (-225) vs. Cory McKenna (+175)
Eryk Anders (-135) vs. Antonio Arroyo (+105)
Brendan Allen (-120) vs. Sean Strickland (-110)
Miranda Granger (-155) vs. Ashley Yoder (+125)
Alex Morono (-190) vs. Rhys McKee (+160)
Louis Smolka (-150) vs. Jose Quinonez (+120)
Kanako Murata (-185) vs. Randa Markos (+155)
Tony Gravely (-150) vs. Geraldo de Freitas (+120)
Don’Tale Mayes (-237) vs. Roque Martinez (+187)
