UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker Odds and Picks

The UFC will host another event at UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, June 27th, 2020.

UFC on ESPN 12 is drastically lacking star power. Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker are ranked in the top 5 in the lightweight division, but neither fighter will be earning a title shot any time soon.

I had another big night this past weekend with my UFC picks.

I went 3-1 on my straight bets and 1-0 on my parlay for a profit of +4.24 units at UFC on ESPN 11. Only Lyman Good lost, but I hit on several other plus money bets and will look to do the same this weekend!

This fight card looks great for parlays. I’m not overly excited about many straight bets, though, as there’s not a lot I like at plus money odds. I’m also gearing up for a big UFC 251.

With that being said, let’s get into my UFC on ESPN 12 predictions.

Hooker vs. Poirier Predictions (Main Event)

Fight Odds: Dan Hooker (+170) vs. Dustin Poirier (-215)

Dustin Poirier (25-6-0-1) opened up as a –176 favorite, but has been bet up since then.

Poirier is coming off a loss to Nurmagomedov last September. Prior to that, Poirier was on a 5-0-0-1 run with impressive wins against Pettis (Submission), Gaethje (TKO) and Alvarez (TKO).

He also won a 5-round decision against Hollaway before losing to the Russian.

Dan Hooker (20-8) is no slouch, though. He’s on a 7-1 run since 2017, but he doesn’t have the same signature wins as Poirier. He’s coming off decision wins against Iaquinta (2019) and Felder (2020).

 


DC & Helwani preview Dustin Poirer vs. Dan Hooker, other UFC projects | ESPN MMA


 

This is a tough fight for one reason. Can Poirier deal with the reach disadvantage? Hooker has a 75’’ reach (3’’ reach advantage). Poirier struggles when fighting guys with longer reach. Poirier was knocked out by McGregor (2014) and Johnson (2016) - two fighters with longer reach.

They have similar stats in the cage.

Poirier averages 5.51 SLpM and 3.97 SApM, while Hooker has an average of 4.76 SLpM and 4.67 SApM. Hooker has only been KO’ed once (Barboza in 2018) and if he can keep Poirier at a distance, then he could emerge with a big upset here.

Poirier wants to work towards another title shot. At 31-years-old, he has time left, but a loss here would be a big setback. While Hooker is tempting me at +170, I’m backing Poirier ITD.

Best Bet: Dustin Poirier ITD (-110)

Gall vs. Perry Predictions (Co-Main Event)

Fight Odds: Mickey Gall (+245) vs. Mike Perry (-305)

Mickey Gall (6-2) is a huge underdog in this one against Mike Perry (13-6).

Both fighters joined the UFC in 2016, but have struggled. Perry is just 6-6 with two consecutive losses to Luque (Decision) and Neal (TKO). Gall is 5-2 in the UFC, but is 2-2 in his last four fights.

Gall is the bigger fighter and will have a 3’’ reach advantage (74’’ vs. 71’’), but his best chance to win this fight is to take the fight to the mat, which isn’t likely going to happen.

Gall was knocked out by Diego Sanchez last March. Sanchez hadn’t knocked out anyone since 2008 (Fioravanti). My money is on Perry being able to secure a fast knockout in this fight.

Best Bet: Mike Perry by TKO/KO (-118)

UFC on ESPN 12 Parlay Best Bets

Here’s my best UFC on ESPN 12 parlay that pays plus money:

Perry ML + Greene ML + Maverick ML (+155) at America’s Bookie

Maurice Greene (8-4) is on a two-fight losing streak, but he’s a big favorite against Gian Villante (17-11). Villante has been knocked out five times in his career already. Green is a monster at 6’7’’ with an 80’’ reach. Villante is moving up from LHW and he’s only 6’3’’ with a 76’’ reach.

Green should be able to dominate Villante on way to a quick TKO/KO win.

Miranda Maverick (7-2) is making her UFC debut at 22-years-old, but she already has some impressive wins against UFC veterans with Invicta. She has won five of her fights by submission.

Mara Romero Borella (11-8-0-3) is 34-years-old with a 2-4 record in the UFC. She has lost her last three fights. Her two UFC wins are against fighters without a UFC win on their resume.

I can’t say I know a lot about Maverick, but this should be an easy UFC debut.

Another fighter to include on your UFC on ESPN 12 parlays is Brendan Allen (-285). He will be fighting Kyle Daukaus and Allen should be able to earn a knockout in the second or third round.

UFC on ESPN 12 Betting Lines

Here are the betting lines for every UFC on ESPN 12 fight from America’s Bookie (odds subject to change):

Dustin Poirier (-215) vs. Dan Hooker (+170)

Mike Perry (-305) vs. Mickey Gall (+245)

Brendan Allen (-285) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+225)

Maurice Greene (-230) vs. Gian Villante (+180)

Luis Pena (-277) vs. Khama Worthy (+222)

Miranda Maverick (-292) vs. Mara Romero Borella (+232)

Philipe Lins (-120) vs. Tanner Boser (-110)

Sean Woodson (-245) vs. Kyle Nelson (+195)

Takashi Sato (-140) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+110)

Jordan Griffin (-115) vs. Youssef Zalal (-115)

Kay Hansen (-140) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+120)

About the Author

Scott is one of our newest writer and handicapper here at ScoresAndStats.com, but he has been writing sports betting content for more than a decade online. His work has been featured on many websites.

 

Scott is a millennial (born in 1989) who grew up in Toronto, Canada and he has never left the big city. He grew up playing a few sports (hockey, soccer and baseball) when he was younger. His favorite sport was hockey and he played goalie. He still likes to get out to the rinks to play some pick-up with his buddies.

 

Growing up in Toronto, Scott is a huge fan of all Toronto teams.

 

He watches the Maple Leafs and Raptors religiously. Scott also enjoys watching the Blue Jays, Argonauts and TFC.

 

His best sports memory was when the Raptors were crowned the 2019 NBA Champions. Unfortunately, he’s still waiting for the Maple Leafs to win a Stanley Cup during his lifetime.

 

Scott may be a diehard fan of Toronto sports teams, but he loves watching all sports. He’s a huge UFC fan (look for his UFC betting articles for most events) and he’ll watch just about anything, including tennis, golf, soccer and cricket.

 

Scott is a numbers guy and he likes digging deep into the statistics when handicapping games. He also likes to identify value bets in markets most bettors overlook, including player/team props.

 

When he’s not handicapping and watching sports, he enjoys golfing in the warmer months. He also loves burgers and poutine. Not only is that his favorite meal, but he has tried over 100 burgers in Toronto and he’s constantly looking for the best new burgers in the city.