An NFL survivor pool is a contest where multiple entrants select teams to win each week in an effort to “survive” and be the last entry standing. The survivor is the winner and receives a share of the pot.
NFL Survivor Pool Rules
Entries pay a fee to enter the contest and then must pick a team each week to win. It’s a straight up win/lose bet. If the team you pick wins, you advance to the next week.
Now, most NFL survivor pools only let you choose a team once during the season. For example, if you choose Kansas City to win in Week 1, you cannot choose the Chiefs to beat an opponent later in the season.
Some survivor pools have some different rules, but most allow entrants to choose one team once per season. If they lose their weekly pick, they are eliminated from the pool.
There are NFL survivor pools that will allow players to buy back into the competition if they are eliminated early. Other pools offer a mulligan up to a certain week in the season.
For the most part though, once you lose you are out of the competition.
NFL Survivor Pool Tips
Too many survivor pool players focus on winning that week. They fail to play the long game. The reward for losing in Week 1 is the same as it is for losing in Week 14 – $0.
Players should take the entire NFL season into account when making picks each week. Look at future schedules and make each decision as part of a full season. Don’t make 17 different one week decisions.
When playing a survivor pool, one has to pay attention to the teams being picked each week. That means players should watch what teams the other players in the pool are selecting.
If you simply pick the most popular – the team most likely to win – pick each week, you might advance but so will everyone else who picks the most popular team.
Players should look at something called expected value. This represents the value of picking each team given the likelihood that it wins as well as the number of entries in the pool that survive. The more people that pick a certain team to win; the lower the relative expected value of picking that team.
Essentially, a positive result for you – the popular team wins – is less likely to eliminate other entries in the pool. Remember, the goal is simply to stay alive longer than everyone else.
Also, keep these numbers in mind when picking your team each week. Over the past ten years, the following is true of NFL favorites.
1-point favorites have won 52 percent of the time
4-point favorites have won 66 percent of the time
7-point favorites have won 76 percent of the time
10-point favorites have won 84 percent of the time
Learn how to bet on NFL win totals and NFL touchdown scorer props.
