The new season of football is underway in the college ranks as well as in the NFL. Most sports bettors have a bad habit of overreacting to the early results. Maybe they are too influenced by the national media or all the handicapper’s betting advice for future matchups.
Overreactions to early results are just part of the game. Successfully handicapping any football game still comes down to the actual head-to-head matchup at hand. Things need to be taken at face value in light of team form, key injuries, the playing venue and everything else that is part of the handicapping process.
College Football Early Results
The first thing to keep in mind is that no college team is as good or as bad as it looked in its first few games. Bettors already know that Clemson and Alabama are two of the top national powers in college football. Whether they won their first few games by four points or four touchdowns, the toughest tests they will face will come further down the road in conference play.
Surprise college teams moving up the national rankings are like volatile stocks. The fall can be just as steep as the rise with one bad loss. You need to focus on fundamental play on both sides of the ball as well as each team’s top playmakers.
How To Adjust To Popular Football Teams With Slow Starts
You also need to take into consideration the teams that they already faced. Maybe they were overrated, to begin with. Some of those early wins that were considered impressive may not carry the same weight later in the season when it comes to national polls.
College football is still a game that is heavily driven by emotion. As teams move through their schedules into conference play, the matchup at hand is far more important than each team’s early results. When breaking down head-to-head matchups, recent betting trends play a bigger role in the handicapping process. A higher level of familiarity can oftentimes lead to a higher level of predictability.
Another factor to keep in mind is line movements across a number of different online sportsbooks. The Oddsmakers are also trying to make sense of the early results to sharpen up the spreads. Following line movements across several books can help reveal where the smart money is going.
NFL Early Results
Overreactions to early results are even stronger in the NFL. Some teams are prone to slow starts and others tend to get that fast start out of the gate. Regardless of what any teams do in its first few games, the best betting advice is to focus on the fundamentals.
When Is Best Time To Bet Football Games, Early or Late?
Is a team’s starting quarterback still rusty from sitting on the bench during the recent preseason schedule? Is the running game grounded to add more pressure to moving the ball through the air? Which teams are controlling the line of scrimmage on each side of the ball?
Once again, upcoming games need to be broken down on face value. What kind of recent history exists between the two teams? Divisional matchups offer far more betting value at online sportsbooks than inter-conference matchups early in the season. Betting lines for prime time games are heavily influenced by the general betting public. Look for matchups that are off the national radar to find the best value in the number. Pick a straight-up winner and then look for value in the money line. The biggest betting advice is to tune out all the outside chatter when handicapping the games.