Maryland Terrapins vs Wagner Seahawks Picks and Predictions December 2nd 2025

Match Facts

Maryland returns to College Park looking to re-establish its trademark toughness on the boards after getting manhandled in back-to-back blowout losses to Gonzaga and Alabama at the Players Era tournament. Over those two games, the Terrapins were outrebounded 88-59, a far cry from the elite rebounding margins Buzz Williams posted during his last two seasons at Texas A&M.

Wagner arrives with just one win but some renewed belief after a wild 103-101 overtime victory at Manhattan. Nick Jones erupted for 35 points and the Seahawks saw six players hit double figures in a game that also delivered interim head coach Dwan McMillan his first win since taking over amid the investigation into Donald Copeland.

This is a clear step down in class for Maryland compared to last week’s opponents, but it is also a litmus test. Williams has repeatedly said tournaments like this accelerate the “diagnostic process,” and he expects to see a tangible response in effort, physicality and discipline on the glass. Wagner, coming off its best offensive showing of the season, will test whether those messages have landed.

Item	Detail
Matchup	Wagner Seahawks at Maryland Terrapins
Venue	XFINITY Center, College Park, MD
Date / Time	Tuesday, December 2, 2025 – 8:00 PM ET
TV	BTN
Records	Wagner 1-5, Maryland 5-3
Conference	Wagner (NEC), Maryland (Big Ten)

For a broader context on where both programs sit in the national landscape and how they stack up statistically against the rest of Division I, you can scan the college basketball teams page, then drill into matchup-specific angles using the live NCAAB scores and odds.

Line and Odds

Oddsmakers are treating this like a classic power-conference buy-low spot. Maryland opened as a massive home favorite and is being priced as if last week’s debacle was more about schedule difficulty than structural failure. Wagner is slotted as a big road underdog despite coming off its best offensive outing of the season.

Market	Number
Spread	Maryland -22.5, Wagner +22.5
Moneyline	Maryland -9500, Wagner +2350
Total	Over/Under 142.5

If you are tracking whether this number continues to creep toward Maryland or attracts sharp buyback on Wagner, the live screen on the NCAAB scores and odds hub is where you’ll see real-time reaction to any injury or lineup news, especially around Maryland’s frontcourt rotation.

Movement Matchup

The spread is telling you the market still believes in Maryland’s ceiling even after two humiliating defeats. Getting destroyed by Gonzaga and Alabama will distort efficiency numbers, but books are effectively saying those games were more diagnostic than predictive. The Terrapins still have high-major length, a focal point scorer in Pharrel Payne and a home gym where their size and physicality should translate more cleanly.

At the same time, Wagner has quietly been a strong performer relative to expectations. Their record is ugly, but covering numbers as a big underdog has become a theme, and the offense finally clicked at Manhattan. The three-point shooting has been a legitimate weapon, and when a team shoots it as well as the Seahawks have from deep, you always have to respect the possibility they hang around the number even if the straight-up win is unrealistic.

This is exactly the type of game that shows up in sharper college basketball picks conversations: a major program returning from a tough neutral-site tournament, laying a huge number against a low-major side that just had a season-high performance. The tug-of-war between “buy low on the favorite” and “ride the undervalued dog” tendencies is what shapes late movement here.

Breakdown Injury Reports

Maryland’s rebounding plan has been built around importing familiar pieces from Buzz Williams’ Texas A&M days, and that plan has not been fully online yet. Pharrel Payne has carried his end of the bargain. Solomon Washington, the other key transfer, has not played due to an ankle sprain, though his presence in uniform against Alabama suggests his return is close. Wagner’s primary turbulence has been on the coaching side rather than the roster, and there are no major new injury concerns reported out of the Manhattan win.

Team	Player	Status	Injury / Note
Maryland	Solomon Washington	Questionable	Ankle sprain, yet to debut but recently in uniform
Maryland	Pharrel Payne	Active	Playing through heavy usage as leading scorer and rebounder
Wagner	Nick Jones	Active	Coming off 35-point performance, no reported injury
Wagner	Zavier Fitch	Active	Logged 10 points, 10 boards vs Manhattan, healthy

If Washington is cleared and effective, Maryland suddenly looks much more like the type of rebounding monster that fits Buzz Williams’ profile, which is exactly the kind of edge highlighted in long-term futures analysis like College Basketball Championship odds, even if the Terrapins are still on the fringe of that conversation.

Maryland Terrapins Recent Performance

Maryland’s last week was a harsh reality check. Gonzaga ran them off the floor 100-61, then Alabama delivered another wire-to-wire beating at 105-72. The common thread was an alarming lack of punch on the glass; the Terrapins were bullied inside, repeatedly giving up second-chance points and failing to impose any physical identity at either end. For a coach whose Texas A&M teams lived at the top of the national rebounding rankings, that has to be the most worrying part, more than the scoreboard itself.

Pharrel Payne remains the bright spot. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding, averaging 17.3 points and 6.3 boards, and has been the only consistent interior presence. His ability to finish through contact and protect the rim has kept Maryland from completely unraveling in spurts, but he has not had enough help. Without Washington beside him, opponents have been able to crowd Payne, win the gang-rebounding battle and still stay pretty comfortable guarding the arc.

Buzz Williams has been blunt about the situation. He has said one player, even Washington, is not a cure-all for a long list of issues that includes effort on the glass, transition defense, ball security and physical toughness. At the same time, he has leaned into the idea that a brutal early schedule accelerates growth: the Terrapins now have clear film of where their habits break down when the talent gap narrows. A home date with Wagner is a chance to put those lessons into practice on a more manageable stage, but the emphasis will be on habits, not just margin.

Wagner Seahawks Recent Performance

For Wagner, the win at Manhattan was more than just a notch in the standings. The 103-101 overtime thriller, capped by Nick Jones scoring the final seven points in the last 58 seconds, looked like a spark for a program that has been in transition after Dwan McMillan took over as interim head coach. Jones’ 35 points were the headliner, but the story was depth: six Seahawks reached double figures, and the offense finally showed the kind of spacing and ball movement the staff has been trying to build.

Zavier Fitch’s double-double, with 10 points and 10 rebounds, was equally important. Wagner will not match Maryland’s size on paper, but Fitch’s activity and timing on the glass give them at least one forward capable of competing on the boards against higher-level athletes. That matters because the Seahawks’ profile hinges on effort, shooting and opportunistic rebounding rather than sheer talent. When those three things align, they can look far more dangerous than a 1-5 record suggests.

The offense has leaned heavily on Jones, a Division II Harcum transfer who has quickly become Wagner’s top scorer at 16.7 points per game. His ability to attack off the dribble and stretch the floor has opened space for others and made their pick-and-roll sets more threatening. More quietly, the Seahawks’ three-point shooting has been elite on a percentage basis; when they are locked in from deep, the scoreboard moves in a hurry. The challenge will be sustaining that composure against Maryland’s length and physicality in a hostile environment, especially if the Terrapins turn this into a grind on the interior.

Betting Insights and Trends

From a betting angle, this matchup is a collision of perception and performance. Maryland is still being priced like a solid Big Ten contender despite looking badly outclassed against elite opposition. The Terrapins have handled their business when they are supposed to, with a strong straight-up record as favorites and a solid home mark. Their scoring profile and pace, with over 77 points per game and a high possession count, support the idea that they can build and extend big leads against overmatched opponents, particularly if the rebounding numbers normalize.

Wagner’s story is different. The Seahawks’ straight-up record is poor, but they have consistently outperformed expectations at the window. A 5-1 mark against the spread as an underdog indicates they are more competitive than the market has given them credit for, and their perimeter shooting has been the equalizer. In games where they make threes early, they force opponents to guard in space, which bleeds the clock and tends to keep margins respectable.

For those weighing how to deploy this game, it is the kind of spot often highlighted in deeper college basketball betting guide breakdowns: a blue-blood-adjacent program trying to correct clear flaws, laying a huge number to a mid- or low-major that is used to playing from behind and has already shown it can compete as a big dog. The key variables are Maryland’s mindset after the Alabama loss and Wagner’s ability to maintain shot quality under defensive pressure.

Best Bets and Prediction Handicapper Section

The handicap comes down to whether you trust Maryland’s response. Buzz Williams has been explicit about the need for better rebounding effort and overall physicality, and this is precisely the kind of game where that message usually shows up. With Payne anchoring the interior and the possible return of Solomon Washington adding more length and energy to the frontcourt, the Terrapins should own the glass, limit Wagner to one-and-done possessions and generate high-percentage looks inside early and often.

At the same time, Wagner’s three-point shooting and recent ATS form cannot be ignored. If Jones and the supporting cast see a few shots drop early, the Seahawks are capable of hanging around this number, particularly if Maryland is still experimenting with rotations and offensive structure without getting consistent guard play. The risk on Wagner’s side is simple: if the shots do not fall and the rebounding gap is as large as it looks on paper, this can unravel quickly.

My projection has Maryland winning comfortably but not sleepwalking:

Projected score: Maryland 83, Wagner 57

With that margin, Maryland covers the -22.5, leveraging a decisive edge on the glass and an offense that should find more rhythm at home against a smaller, less physical opponent. The total projection of 140 points leans under 142.5, driven by the expectation that Maryland’s defense tightens after the embarrassment of the Players Era tournament and that Wagner’s offense regresses from its Manhattan explosion against a significantly tougher, longer opponent.