AFL betting comes down to three main bets: head-to-head, which is the moneyline, the line, which is the point spread, and the total points. The numbers run large because a goal is worth 6 points and a behind 1, so a typical AFL game in 2026 finished with about 180 points on the board and a median winning margin of 26.
The AFL has 18 clubs, a home-and-away season from March into August, and a finals series that ends with the Grand Final at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in late September. The 2026 Grand Final is set for Saturday, September 26, between Fremantle and the Brisbane Lions, who won the last two.
How AFL scoring works
An AFL score is written as goals, behinds and total: 18.14 (122) means 18 goals and 14 behinds, 18 times 6 plus 14. That was Brisbane’s score in the 2025 Grand Final, when it beat Geelong’s 11.9 (75) by 47 points in front of 100,022 at the MCG.
The behind is what makes AFL totals hard to price. Brisbane kicked 18 goals and 14 behinds that day, and Geelong 11 and 9, so 23 of the game’s 52 scoring shots were worth a single point. A team that kicks straight can beat a team with more scoring shots, so shot counts and accuracy tell you more about a team’s form than its last score.
The three main AFL bets
These are the bets every AFL game has:
- Head-to-head: pick the winner. A draw is possible, so check whether the bet is two-way, with the draw refunded or lost under the book’s rule, or three-way.
- Line: one team gives a points start, such as -14.5, so it has to win by 15 or more to cover.
- Total points: over or under a line for both teams combined.
Draws are rare but real. The 2026 home-and-away season had three: Collingwood and Hawthorn 15.3 (93) to 13.15 (93) on April 30, the same two clubs 13.14 (92) each on August 15, and the Western Bulldogs and Carlton 12.10 (82) each on August 16. Two of those three were Collingwood-Hawthorn.
Australian books quote decimal odds, so convert before comparing. Before the 2025 Grand Final, Geelong was $1.55 and Brisbane $2.47; $2.47 is +147 in American odds, a 40.5% implied chance, and Brisbane won.
What 216 games in 2026 say about totals and margins
Across the 216 games played in 2026 before the Grand Final, home-and-away and finals together:
| Measure | 2026 figure |
|---|---|
| Median total | 181 points |
| Average total | 178.1 points |
| Lowest and highest total | 84 and 258 |
| Games between 150 and 180 points | 31% |
| Median winning margin | 26 points |
| Won by 40 or more | 74 games |
| Won by 12 or fewer | 59 games |
| Listed home side | 129 wins, 84 losses, 3 draws |
The spread of totals is the headline. A 174-point range between the lowest and highest game means the weather, the ground and the pace of each game matter more than any season average, and fewer than a third of games landed in the 150 to 180 band.
Margins run wide as well. About one game in three was decided by 40 or more, which is the case for margin bets and big lines, and the 59 games decided by two goals or fewer are the ones where a behind in the last minute settles a line bet.
Other AFL markets
Beyond the main three, the usual extras are:
- Margin bands: a winner and a range, such as 1 to 39 or 40 and over.
- First goal scorer and anytime goal scorer: props on individual forwards.
- Disposals: over or under a line for a player’s kicks and handballs.
- Quarter and half bets: a line or total for part of the game.
- Futures: the premiership, the minor premiership, the top four or the top ten.
For the goal-scorer markets, the season leader gives a scale. Sydney’s Charlie Curnow won his third Coleman Medal in 2026 with 69 goals in the home-and-away season, which is the ceiling a season-long goal-kicking bet is measured against.
The dates on the AFL calendar
These are the season’s markers, as they fell in 2026:
- Opening Round, in March: 2026 began on Thursday, March 5, with Sydney beating Carlton 20.12 (132) to 10.9 (69) at the SCG.
- Anzac Day, April 25: Collingwood played Essendon at the MCG and won 20.17 (137) to 9.6 (60), in front of 92,231, the biggest home-and-away crowd of the season.
- The finals: in 2026 the top ten clubs made the finals for the first time, over five weeks, starting with wildcard finals on August 29.
- The Grand Final, late September: September 27 in 2025 and September 26 in 2026, both at the MCG.
The finals format changed in 2026, so any finals trend from before 2026 describes a different format. Fremantle, the 2026 minor premier at 19-4, lost its first qualifying final at home to Hawthorn 5.10 (40) to 10.12 (72) and still reached the Grand Final.
AFL Women’s
The AFLW has the same 18 clubs and plays later in the year. Its 2026 season, the competition’s 11th, runs from August 9 to the last weekend of November over 12 home-and-away rounds.
With 12 rounds instead of 23, each AFLW result is a larger share of a team’s record, and a season-long futures price has less to go on. That cuts both ways for a bettor: the market has less to work with too.
Futures prices
For any AFL futures price, convert it to a chance first: $5.00 is +400 and implies 20%, and $11.00 is +1000 and implies 9.1%. A futures bet is worth making only when you rate the team’s chance higher than the price does.
For the terms used above, see our betting terminology guide. For the pick services that cover Australian football, see our handicapper site reviews, and before you pick a book, our sportsbook reviews.