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New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals July 11th 2025
The New York Mets head to Kauffman Stadium to play against the Kansas City Royals. The game is set for Friday, July 11, 2025, at 8:10 PM. Fans can catch the action on SNY as the teams compete under the night sky.
The Mets have a record of 53-41 and are just one game behind in the NL East. Kodai Senga, with an ERA of 1.47, will start on the mound for them. The Royals, with a record of 46-48, will have Michael Wacha pitching. The weather forecast is very hot with overcast clouds and a light breeze.
Mets vs Royals Key Information
- Sport: Baseball
- Teams: New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals
- Venue: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO
- Date: Friday, July 11, 2025
- Betting Odds: Mets Moneyline -140, Royals Moneyline +119, Mets Runline -1.5 (+114), Royals Runline +1.5 (-136), Total Over 9.0 (-119), Total Under 9.0 (-101)
The Mets Can Win If…
The New York Mets are coming off a loss to the Baltimore Orioles, 3-7. Brandon Nimmo was a bright spot, going 2-for-4 with a run scored. Francisco Lindor also contributed with a double and a run.
The Mets have a solid chance to win with their strong hitting stats. They rank 7th in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, showing they can get on base and hit for power. Their 121 home runs also rank 7th, indicating their ability to score runs quickly.
Kodai Senga will be on the mound for the Mets. He boasts an impressive ERA of 1.47 and a record of 7-3. With Senga’s pitching and the team’s hitting power, the Mets have a strong opportunity to secure a win.
The Royals Can Win If…
The Kansas City Royals are coming off a narrow 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Salvador Perez was a standout, hitting two home runs and driving in two runs. Kris Bubic pitched 5 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs and striking out six batters.
The Royals have been strong in extra-base hits, ranking third in doubles this season. Their pitching has also been effective, with a team ERA of 3.46, placing them second in the league. These stats show that both their hitting and pitching can give them an edge in games.
Key players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino are performing well. Witt Jr. has a batting average of .295, while Pasquantino leads the team with 15 home runs. With Michael Wacha starting on the mound, the Royals have a solid chance to continue their winning streak against the New York Mets.
The Lean
The Mets are favored on the moneyline at -140, and they look like a strong pick to win. Their pitching ranks second in ERA at 3.46, while the Royals’ pitching ranks sixth with a 3.62 ERA. The Mets’ offense also has a slight edge in on-base percentage, ranking seventh compared to the Royals’ 18th. My model projects the Mets to win with a score of 5-3.
The total for this game is set at 9.0, with the over at -119 and the under at -101. Both teams have solid pitching, with the Mets ranking second and the Royals ranking sixth in ERA. Given these strong pitching stats, my model projects a total score of 8 runs. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the under 9.0.
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Royals’ Power Surge Faces a Major Test in Mets’ Returning Ace Kodai Senga
A sudden and unexpected power surge has fueled a winning streak for the Kansas City Royals. They’ll face their toughest test yet on Friday night as they open a three-game home series against the New York Mets and their returning ace, Kodai Senga.
KC’s Home Run Binge
The Kansas City Royals, a team not typically known for power, have been launching home runs at an incredible rate. They have hit 14 homers in their last six games, a stretch that has seen them win four straight. The surge has been led by veteran Salvador Perez and rookie Jac Caglianone, who has gone deep in two straight contests.
“Everybody’s having fun out there,” Caglianone said. “We kind of know the position we’re in and where we want to be going into the (All-Star) break, and there’s no better way to do that than on a hot streak.”
The Return of the “Ghost Fork”
The New York Mets will look to cool off those hot bats by welcoming back their best pitcher. Kodai Senga (7-3, 1.47 ERA) will be activated from the injured list to make his first start since June 12. His return from a hamstring strain comes sooner than expected and is a massive boost for a team that has struggled on the road.
“For him to be in play for us now before we go into the All-Star break, it’s huge for us,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “He’s a big part of this team.” The impact of a returning ace is a key topic in our expert betting guide.
A Duel of Opposing Trends
Friday’s pitching matchup features two veterans on very different paths. While Senga returns to the mound, the Royals will start right-hander Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.83 ERA), who is currently mired in a three-start losing streak. However, Wacha does have a solid career record against the Mets. This intriguing duel will be a key focus on the scores and odds board.
Mets’ Road Woes
The Mets have struggled mightily on the road, losing 10 of their last 12 games away from home while giving up a staggering 84 runs in that span. For two MLB teams looking to head into the All-Star break with momentum, this series is crucial. To see if our experts think Senga’s return can solve the Mets’ road problems, check out our daily MLB picks.
