An NFL player prop is a bet on one player’s numbers in one game, such as passing yards, receptions or a touchdown, instead of on which team wins. Many are over/unders: for Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers on Thursday, September 24, 2026, DraftKings set Jordan Love’s passing yards at 228.5, as listed on ESPN that day.
The half yard means the bet cannot land on the number. Love either throws for 229 or more, and the over wins, or for 228 or fewer, and the under wins.
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How to read a prop line
The line and the price are separate. The line is the number, such as 228.5 yards, and the price is what each side pays, written the same way as a moneyline: at -110, you risk $110 to win $100, and at +120 a $100 bet wins $120. Those two prices are illustrations; our moneyline guide explains the numbers and our guide to handicap betting explains why a half point matters.
A price also reads as a chance. At -110 on both sides, each side is priced at 52.4%, and the 4.8% over 100 is the sportsbook’s margin. That is the number a prop bet has to beat.
What is on the board for one game
A single game carries hundreds of props. The ESPN feed listed 1,661 DraftKings prop entries for Falcons at Packers on September 24, including these types:
| Prop type | Entries |
|---|---|
| Receiving yards milestones | 135 |
| Team total points | 84 |
| Rushing yards milestones | 80 |
| Passing yards milestones | 48 |
| Receptions milestones | 43 |
| First touchdown scorer | 27 |
| Anytime touchdown scorer | 26 |
| Total tackles | 20 |
A milestone is a ladder of alternate lines on one player. Christian Watson’s receiving yards ran from 15+ up to 120+ in steps, next to a main over/under of 71.5. The higher the rung, the longer the price.
Touchdown scorer bets are yes-or-no. The feed listed 24 players, from Bijan Robinson to Tucker Kraft, plus two team entries, and a player can pay on “anytime” without scoring first.
Prop lines move
Prop lines open, then move, like a point spread. These are the openers and the lines as read on September 24, from the same feed:
| Player | Prop | Open | September 24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | Passing yards | 232.5 | 228.5 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Passing yards | 200.5 | 206.5 |
| Christian Watson | Receiving yards | 65.5 | 71.5 |
| Drake London | Receiving yards | 61.5 | 66.5 |
| Bijan Robinson | Rushing yards | 81.5 | 77.5 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Rushing yards | 31.5 | 23.5 |
The feed does not say why a line moved, and neither do we. What it shows is that the number you take is the number you are paid on: an over on Lloyd at 31.5 and one at 23.5 are eight yards apart for the same carries.
Why a two-game average misleads
Early in a season, an average hides how far apart the games are. Love threw for 387 yards against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 and 145 against the New York Jets in Week 2, per ESPN’s game log. That is an average of 266, which is over the 228.5 line, from one game 158.5 yards over it and one 83.5 under.
Robinson is the closer case. He ran for 83 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers and 72 against the Carolina Panthers, one over his 77.5 line and one under. Two games tell you the range, not the answer, and this game has a different opponent.
How player props are settled
The house rules settle the edge cases. These are FanDuel’s, approved by the Massachusetts Gaming Commission on March 27, 2025:
- Player does not play: a player prop is void only when the player does not play a snap. If he plays one snap and leaves hurt, the bet stands.
- Overtime: it counts for all NFL markets unless the market says otherwise. DraftKings labels many of its props “(incl. overtime)”.
- Longest reception or rush: if the player records none, the under wins.
- Most of a stat among several players: a tie is settled under dead-heat rules, which reduce the payout.
- Quarter props: they count only the listed quarter.
Read the rules at your own book before you bet. A different book can settle the same prop on different terms.
Where to find the games
This week’s games, lines and our calls are on the NFL predictions hub, and our page on the Falcons at Packers game has that game’s odds. For the rest of the vocabulary, see our betting terms from A to Z.
Paid prop picks are sold by the handicappers we list, and our handicapper site reviews rate the services. Check any pick’s line against the board before you bet it: a prop picked at 31.5 is a different bet at 23.5.