NFL
NFL · Thursday 24 September
Falcons at Packers Final Score: Falcons Win 35-14
Final: Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14, Thursday 24 September at Lambeau Field.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “Green Bay has come down from 7 to 5.5. That is below my number, so no bet on Atlanta at +5.5.”
What decided it
Atlanta won the second quarter by 10. Atlanta turned the ball over 1 time to Green Bay’s 1, and gained 498 yards to 328.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is GB -4.5, with a total of 43.5. Green Bay did not cover as the favourite. The 49 points went over the total.
What comes next
Atlanta plays next at the New Orleans Saints on Monday 5 October: our prediction. Green Bay plays next at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday 4 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Falcons at Packers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Green Bay has come down from 7 to 5.5. That is below my number, so no bet on Atlanta at +5.5.
What we said on Monday: “Falcons +7. Give me the points.” and “Worst price I would take: Falcons +6.5. Below that, pass.” The price has gone past that line, so I am doing what I said I would do.
Pick: no bet at Falcons +5.5, a bet again at +6.5
Green Bay went 9-7-1 last season and outscored its opponents by 31 points across 17 games. That is under two points a game. Atlanta went 8-9 and was outscored by 48, which is under three a game the other way. The gap between these two teams last season was a little under five points a game.
On Monday the market asked for seven and that gap was worth taking. Now it asks for 5.5. There is still under a point between the market and last season’s numbers, and under a point is not a bet. Green Bay scored 23.0 and allowed 21.2 a game last season, so this is still not a team that buries people. It is just no longer being priced as one.
Where the price has gone
The median across 11 US sportsbooks was Green Bay -7 on Monday. Read on 24 September 2026, it is -5.5: six books hang -5.5 and five hang -5.
The chart marks the first download in which each line appeared, which is why -4.5 shows up: it was dealt on 23 September and no book in this read still has it. The move that matters is simpler. At +7 a one-touchdown loss was a push and my money back. At +5.5 a six- or seven-point Green Bay win is a loss. That was most of the value, and it has gone.
Worst price I would take: Falcons +6.5. At +5.5 or +5, pass.
The case for the move
Atlanta is 0-2 and Green Bay is 1-1. Atlanta lost 20-13 at Pittsburgh and then 34-3 at home to Carolina. Green Bay lost 39-22 at Minnesota and won 20-17 at the Jets.
The market has moved toward the team that has scored three points in its last game, and I cannot say it is wrong to. Two games is two games, and last season’s 17 still tell a steadier story. If you think the Falcons are a two-win team rather than an eight-win team having a bad fortnight, Green Bay -5.5 is a fairer price to lay than -7 was.
The total
The number is 43, down from 44.5 on Monday, and I have no strong view on it.
Green Bay went over 43 in 10 of its 17 games last season. Atlanta also went over in 10 of 17, and one more landed on 43 exactly. The history leans slightly over. The move since Monday went the other way. Neither is enough to bet.
What the moneyline says
The median moneylines are Atlanta +216 and Green Bay -270. With the margin taken out, that is about a 30 percent chance for Atlanta to win outright, up from about 27 percent on Monday. I am not backing them to win, and at +5.5 I am not backing them to cover either.
Last season, game by game
Nine of Green Bay’s 17 games last season finished within seven points either way, one of them a 40-40 tie in Dallas. That is why +7 was worth having and why +5.5 is not the same bet.
No bet at Falcons +5.5. Back in at +6.5.