NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyGB-3U 38.5-166TB+3O 38.5+140
NFL · Sunday 4 October
Packers at Buccaneers Final Score: Packers Win 17-14
Final: Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14, Sunday 4 October at Raymond James Stadium.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on Packers at Buccaneers. The total has fallen nine points since 16 September, and nothing in the scores explains it.”
What decided it
Green Bay won the third quarter by 7. Green Bay turned the ball over 2 times to Tampa Bay’s 2, and gained 283 yards to 275.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is GB -2.5, with a total of 38.5. Green Bay covered as the favourite. The 31 points went under the total.
What comes next
Green Bay plays next against the Chicago Bears on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. Tampa Bay plays next at the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday 8 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “No bet on Packers -3.5 – Packers at Buccaneers prediction, odds and best picks”.
No bet on Packers at Buccaneers. The total has fallen nine points since 16 September, and nothing in the scores explains it.
Watch the total. It was first seen at 47.5 and sits at 38.5 now, and every scoring number I have for these two teams points the other way.
How I make the call
I take each team’s points per game from last season and average it with what the other side allowed. That gives me a score for the game. If that score and the market’s number are a field goal or more apart, and I can see in the results why the market has moved, I bet. If either half fails, I don’t.
The second half matters here. A number that moves hard against every result on the board usually knows something the results don’t show. I would rather miss a bet than take the other side of information I can’t see.
The tell
That dashed line is 38.5. Green Bay’s games went over it in 11 of 17 last season, and Tampa Bay’s in 12. Green Bay’s three games this season finished on 61, 37 and 49 points. Tampa Bay’s finished on 60, 42 and 39. Five of those six cleared this number.
On last season’s rates, Green Bay scores about 23.6 here and Tampa Bay about 21.8. That is roughly 45 points, almost seven more than the market is asking for. Run this season’s three games through the same working and it comes to 48.
So the scores say over, and clearly. The market went the other way. It was 47.5 on 16 September and 45.5 or 46 by 23 September, and every number from 42.5 down to 39.5 was first seen on 28 September. On 1 October it went lower again: 10 of 11 books now hang 38.5, and BetRivers 39.
I can’t find a result that did that. ESPN lists Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield out with a thumb injury, in the report at the foot of this page. My working prices no injuries, so I can’t put a figure on that either. I am not going to bet a number that has moved nine points on something I can’t measure.
What last season says
Green Bay went 9-7-1 and outscored opponents by 31. Tampa Bay went 8-9 and was outscored by 31. Mirror images. Green Bay allowed 21.2 a game, three fewer than Tampa’s 24.2, and that gap is most of the difference between them.
Tampa Bay was steadier at home than away: 23.9 scored and 23.6 allowed in Tampa, against 21.0 and 24.7 on the road. Green Bay on the road scored 23.9 and allowed 24.1. Put those two splits side by side and last season has this game close to even.
The spread
Green Bay is laying 3.5 at 10 of 11 books, and BetRivers has 4. The first number seen for this game had Tampa Bay getting 1.5, on 16 September. Since then it has been quoted on both sides of zero, with Tampa Bay laying as much as 2.5, and all four numbers from Tampa -1.5 to Tampa +3.5 were first seen on 28 September. Tampa +4 and +4.5 first appeared the next day.
On last season’s rates Green Bay is about 1.8 points better on a neutral field, before Tampa Bay gets home field. That is less than a field goal from 3.5. No bet on the side.
This season does not make the case for Green Bay either. The Packers are 1-2 and have been outscored by 35, including a 35-14 home loss to Atlanta in Week 3. Tampa Bay is 0-3, and every loss was by seven or fewer: 33-27 in Cincinnati, 23-19 to Cleveland and 23-16 to Minnesota. The line went from Tampa +1 on 23 September to Tampa +3.5 after Green Bay lost by 21 at home. That is the same pattern as the total, and it gets the same answer.
Last season, game by game
Green Bay’s season split in two. They were 9-3-1 through 7 December, then lost their last four, by 8, 6, 17 and 13 points. Tampa Bay played 12 one-score games and went 6-6 in them.
Neither shape tells me which side of 3.5 this lands on. A team that closed 0-4 and has started 1-2 is not one I want to lay 3.5 with. A team on a three-game losing run is not one I want to back blind.
What the moneyline says
About 62.3 percent for Green Bay once the margin is out, from -185 and +155. That is a short road favourite, which is what 3.5 says too.
The price on the winner agrees with the spread. The total is the number that sits apart from everything else on this page, and it is the one I can’t explain.
No bet on Packers at Buccaneers. Last season’s rates put this game near 45 points and the market has it at 38.5. Until I can see what moved it nine points, I am not betting against it.
Prices on this page are the median of 11 US sportsbooks, read on 1 October 2026.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
Green Bay Packers: Out: Micah Parsons (DE, knee – acl – surgery), Josh Jacobs (RB, personal), Jordon Riley (DT, achilles), Luke Musgrave (TE, neck); questionable: Lukas Van Ness (DE, shoulder), Edgerrin Cooper (LB, concussion), Karl Brooks (DT, illness), Aaron Banks (G, toe), Warren Brinson (DT, calf), Anthony Campbell (DT, ankle), Jacob Monk (C, quadriceps), Pierre Strong Jr. (RB, hamstring); on injured reserve: Jayden Reed (WR, neck – surgery), Zach Bako-Bewele (OT, knee – surgery), Savion Williams (WR, ankle – sprain), Collin Oliver (DE, achilles), Thomas Yassmin (TE, undisclosed), Johnathan Baldwin II (S, knee).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Out: Baker Mayfield (QB, thumb – dislocated); questionable: Rueben Bain Jr. (LB, groin), Josiah Trotter (LB, shoulder), Ko Kieft (TE, elbow), SirVocea Dennis (LB, calf), Yaya Diaby (LB, calf), Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT, ankle), Keionte Scott (CB, toe), Chris Godwin Jr. (WR, ankle), Bucky Irving (RB, lower body); on injured reserve: Jalen McMillan (WR, knee – pcl – sprain), Josh Hayes (CB, knee – surgery), Mohamed Kamara (LB, knee – sprain), David Sills V (WR, undisclosed).