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Europa League Predictions and Picks

Free Europa League predictions and picks on Thursday nights. Three prices, our three chances, and a decision.

Past Game Predictions Result

Home, and decided

Thursday football has a home bias, and it rarely ends level. In 2025-26 home sides won 95 of the 184 Europa League matches settled in 90 minutes, 51.6%. Only 30 were drawn, 16.3%. Away sides won 59.

That is the number to start from. A draw at Europa League prices is a long shot more often than it is in a domestic league.

Favorites, and the draw

From September to May, in 99 priced matches, the favorite won 61. Where the price made one side better than 60%, the match was drawn once in 27. Even matches drew 6 times in 33, well under their 28.7% price.

Europa League 2025-26: the draw, by how even the game was priced0%10%20%30%40%28.7%18.2%Even game25.5%23.1%Clear favorite18.6%3.7%Heavy favoriteDraw as pricedDraw came in
Priced games only, Sep 2025 to May 2026. Favorite's chance as priced, margin removed: even game under 45%, clear favorite 45% to 60%, heavy favorite over 60%. Games per band: even game 33, clear favorite 39, heavy favorite 27. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Small samples, one season. But the direction matches the Champions League’s. In European competition the draw came in less than the prices said.

Scores and totals

A 1-0 either way led the scores, 39 matches, then 2-1 and 2-0. Matches averaged 2.67 goals; both teams scored in 90 of 184.

The most common final scores, Europa League 2025-260%5%10%15%20%21.2%1-017.9%2-113.6%2-09.2%3-19.2%1-16.5%3-04.9%4-04.3%0-0Share of games
Share of 184 games; a score counts either way round (2-1 includes 1-2). Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The books set 2.5 on 84 of the priced matches; 39 went over. The 3.5 lines went over 6 times in 14.

How often the over came in, by the total posted, Europa League 2025-260%20%40%60%80%46.4%Total 2.5Over
Priced games only, Sep 2025 to May 2026; totals posted on at least 15 games. Games per total: 1.5 1, 2.5 84, 3.5 14. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Goals ran lowest in September, 2.22 a match, and highest in April, 3.00.

Goals per game, month by month, Europa League 2025-26012342.22Sep2.72Oct2.78Nov2.89Dec2.67Jan2.46Feb2.36Mar3.00AprGoals per game
Both teams combined; months with fewer than 10 games left out. Games per month: Sep 18, Oct 36, Nov 36, Dec 18, Jan 36, Feb 13, Mar 14, Apr 10. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The upsets

Underdogs won 22 of the 99 priced matches. Celtic beat Stuttgart 1-0 at +700 in February. Red Star Belgrade beat Lille at +500, and Midtjylland beat Nottingham Forest at the same price in March.

The longest prices that won, Europa League 2025-26Celtic +700 over VfB Stuttgart, 1-0Red Star Belgrade +500 over Lille, 1-0FC Midtjylland +500 over Nottingham Forest, 1-0Fenerbahce +475 over Nottingham Forest, 2-1Young Boys +425 over Lille, 1-0FCSB +360 over Feyenoord Rotterdam, 4-3
The underdog of the two sides winning outright, by its pre-game price; 22 such wins among the 99 priced games, Sep 2025 to May 2026. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

How we price a Europa League match

Our club method, on the soccer predictions page, measures each side against its own league’s average. In a competition that mixes leagues of very different strength, that comparison is rough, and the five-point bar stands: daylight or no bet.

Europa League betting tips

  • Start with the home side. 51.6% of matches settled in 90 minutes were home wins.
  • The draw is rarer here. 16.3%, against a quarter in the big domestic leagues.
  • Two legs, two bets. Price each match on its own 90 minutes.
  • Lean under at 2.5. 39 overs in 84 priced matches.
  • No gap, no bet.

The clubs

Europa League clubs we have pages for sit below, fixtures and our calls on each.

Questions and answers

Do Europa League matches draw much?

Rarely: in 2025-26, 30 of the 184 matches settled in 90 minutes, 16.3%.

Do home teams win often in the Europa League?

Yes: 95 of 184 in 2025-26, 51.6%.

What was the biggest Europa League upset of 2025-26?

By price, Celtic over VfB Stuttgart, 1-0 at +700 in February.

Past Game Predictions Result

  1. Milan at Bournemouth · 22 OctNo bet
  2. C Palace at Lyon · 15 OctNo bet
  3. Juventus at Celta Vigo · 15 OctNo bet
  4. Besiktas vs Marseille Match Recap: Vaclav Cerny Sparks 4-1 Home Statement · 17 SepThe Besiktas vs Marseille match recap shows why the ScoresAndStats preview trusted the home side at plus money.
  5. Celtic vs Ferencvaros Match Recap: Daniel Arzani Caps 3-1 Away Upset · 17 SepThe Celtic vs Ferencvaros match recap validated the preview's caution around the home favorite.
  6. Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan Match Recap: Yeremy Pino Drives 4-0 Rout · 17 SepThe Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan match recap is built around Yeremy Pino's immediate impact.
  7. Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen Match Recap: Nico González Ignites Dominant 5-0 Win · 17 SepThe Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen match recap starts with an early goal and never really changes direction.
  8. Levski Sofia vs Salzburg Match Recap: Haris Tabakovic Decides Tight 1-0 Win · 17 SepThe Levski Sofia vs Salzburg match recap came down to one precise finish.
  9. Lillestrom vs Torreense Match Recap: Alfaro Leads Historic 2-1 Torreense Upset · 17 SepThe Lillestrom vs Torreense match recap produced one of Matchday 1's most important betting reversals.
  10. OFI Crete vs Hoffenheim Match Recap: Cantalapiedra Delivers Stunning 2-0 Upset · 17 SepThe OFI Crete vs Hoffenheim match recap delivered more than the ScoresAndStats handicap needed.
Show all 21 past predictions
  1. Bournemouth at Real Sociedad · 17 SepThe Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth match recap belongs to Bournemouth's opening 20 minutes.
  2. Viktoria Plzen vs Union Saint-Gilloise Match Recap: Mofokeng Leads 3-0 Away Win · 17 SepThe Viktoria Plzen vs Union Saint-Gilloise match recap produced three goals, all for the visitors.
  3. AC Milan vs Benfica Recap: Dodi Lukebakio and Jakub Kaminski Sink Milan 2-0 · 16 SepThe AC Milan vs Benfica recap produced the wrong kind of attacking result for the ScoresAndStats total recommendation.
  4. Anderlecht vs Lyon Recap: Noah Nartey and Keito Nakamura Sink Double-Chance Bet · 16 SepThe Anderlecht vs Lyon recap was damaged for home bettors before the match reached the quarter-hour.
  5. Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague Recap: Tobias Guddal’s Brace Powers 4-1 Rout · 16 SepThe Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague recap validated the ScoresAndStats handicap thesis with room to spare.
  6. Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje Recap: Facundo Medina Seals 2-0 Win as -2 Pushes · 16 SepThe Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje recap produced one of the day’s most important settlement lessons.
  7. Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb Recap: Scoreless Draw Buries Over 2.5 · 16 SepThe Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb recap could hardly have finished farther from the ScoresAndStats betting thesis.
  8. Olympiacos vs Jagiellonia Recap: Roman Yaremchuk Wins It While +1.5 Cashes · 16 SepThe Olympiacos vs Jagiellonia recap delivered the exact type of result handicap bettors wanted.
  9. Omonia vs Celta Vigo Recap: Jure Balkovec’s 88th-Minute Goal Cashes Under 2.5 · 16 SepThe Omonia vs Celta Vigo recap followed the ScoresAndStats total thesis almost perfectly.
  10. Sturm Graz vs Rennes Recap: Rennes Produce 23 Shots but Settle for 0-0 Draw · 16 SepThe Sturm Graz vs Rennes recap is a sharp reminder that shot volume and winning are not the same thing.
  11. Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar Recap: Enzo Le Fée Penalty Seals Historic 1-0 Win · 16 SepThe Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar recap delivered a memorable result for Sunderland but a losing one for the ScoresAndStats total.

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