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World Cup Predictions and Picks

World Cup predictions and odds. What the 2026 tournament taught us about favorites, draws and long shots, and where to follow the national teams until the next one.

What to watch for in a World Cup match

Start with the favorite. In 2026, the side the market made favorite won 64 of the 95 matches settled in 90 minutes, 67.4%. That is higher than in any soccer league we cover.

World Cup 2026: the draw, by how even the game was priced0%10%20%30%40%32.7%31.2%Even game26.3%18.2%Clear favorite16.9%19.6%Heavy favoriteDraw as pricedDraw came in
Priced games only, Jun 2026 to Jul 2026. Favorite's chance as priced, margin removed: even game under 45%, clear favorite 45% to 60%, heavy favorite over 60%. Games per band: even game 16, clear favorite 33, heavy favorite 46. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Then watch the draw. It came in 20 times in 95. Heavy favorites, above 60% by the price, still drew 9 times in 46, a little more than their price of 16.9%.

How the matches finished

The 2026 tournament averaged 2.99 goals a match. Both teams scored in 50 of 95, and 54 went over 2.5. The commonest scores were 1-0 and 2-1 either way, then 2-0.

The most common final scores, World Cup 20260%5%10%15%20%14.7%1-013.7%2-111.6%2-09.5%1-18.4%3-18.4%3-07.4%0-05.3%4-1Share of games
Share of 95 league games; a score counts either way round (2-1 includes 1-2). Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Most matches carried a 2.5 total, and 42 of 75 went over. July, with the knockout rounds, scored a little more than June: 3.17 a match against 2.95.

The long shots

Underdogs won 11 of the 95 matches settled in 90 minutes. South Africa beat South Korea 1-0 at +425; Australia beat Türkiye 2-0 at the same price. Norway knocked out Brazil 2-1 at +370 in July. And in the third-place match England beat France 6-4 at +350.

The longest prices that won, World Cup 2026South Africa +425 over South Korea, 1-0Australia +425 over Türkiye, 2-0Norway +370 over Brazil, 2-1England +350 over France, 6-4Ecuador +330 over Germany, 2-1Paraguay +280 over Türkiye, 1-0
The underdog of the two sides winning outright, by its pre-game price; 11 such wins among the 95 priced games, Jun 2026 to Jul 2026. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Nine matches went past 90 minutes. The final was one of them: Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time.

Why we rarely bet national teams

Our soccer number compares each side with the average of its league. National teams have no league in common, and a tournament gives each one only three group matches before the knockouts. That is too little to build a number on. Our Nations League predictions say so, and the call there is no bet. The Nations League page explains it in full.

World Cup betting tips

  • The favorite is stronger here than in a league. 67.4% of 2026 matches settled in 90 minutes went to the favorite.
  • The draw still lands. 20 in 95, and 9 in 46 even with a heavy favorite.
  • Know what settles. Knockout bets on the match settle on 90 minutes; “to advance” includes extra time and penalties.
  • Long shots come at moderate prices. The longest winner in 90 minutes was +425.
  • No number, no bet.

The national teams

Our national-team pages are below. Between tournaments they carry the fixtures and our calls.

Questions and answers

How often did favorites win at the 2026 World Cup?

64 of the 95 matches settled in 90 minutes, 67.4%.

Who won the 2026 World Cup?

Spain, 1-0 against Argentina after extra time in the final.

What was the biggest upset of the 2026 World Cup?

By price, South Africa over South Korea and Australia over Türkiye, both at +425 and both in the group stage.