Nations League Predictions and Picks

Why our national-team calls are usually no bet

Our soccer number needs a league: every team playing the same set of opponents, so that a goal scored means the same thing for everyone. National teams have none. A Nations League group, a World Cup qualifier and a friendly mix opponents of very different strength, and a goal against the weakest side in a group counts the same as one against the strongest.

So our Nations League predictions now set out the price and the teams’ records, and then say plainly that the method has nothing to stand on. The call is no bet. That is the honest answer, and we give it rather than a confident pick we cannot support.

How the matches ended

In the 2024-25 edition, 179 matches were settled in 90 minutes. Home sides won 79, 44.1%; away sides 58; 42 were drawn, 23.5%. Matches averaged 2.69 goals, and 16 ended 0-0, enough to make 0-0 one of the five commonest scores.

The favorite and the draw

From September 2024 to March 2025, across 149 priced matches, the favorite won 94 times, 63.1%. Sides priced above 60% to win were held to a draw 5 times in 47. Even matches drew 16 times in 50.

The pattern is the usual one: the closer the price, the likelier the draw. In the even matches it landed at 32.0% against a priced 30.8%.

Totals

Of the 104 priced matches set at 2.5 goals, 59 went over. Where the books went down to 1.5, 15 of 25 went over; at 3.5, 11 of 20.

The upsets

Underdogs won 23 of the 149 priced matches. The longest was Greece over England, 2-1 at +800 in October 2024. The Faroe Islands beat Armenia 1-0 at +600; Montenegro beat Türkiye 3-1 at +500. Italy beat France 3-1 in Paris at +450 in the first week.

Nations League betting tips

• Read the group, not the badge. Groups mix teams of very different strength.
• Expect the draw in close matches. Even matches drew 16 times in 50.
• Favorites won 63.1%. Their prices already say so.
• The 2.5 total leaned over. 59 of 104.
• When we cannot price it, we do not bet it.

The teams

Every national team we keep a page for is below, with its fixtures and our calls.

Questions and answers