A winning margin bet is a wager on which team wins and by how much, chosen from a set of bands such as 1-6 points, 7-12 points or 13 or more. You are paid only if your team wins and the final margin lands inside the band you picked.
The margin is simply the winner’s score minus the loser’s. A final of 27-17 is a 10-point margin, so it pays the “7-12” band for the winning team and nothing else.
How a winning margin market is laid out
Each team gets its own set of bands, and you pick one team and one band together. The band widths depend on the sport and the book. Here is a made-up football market:
| Example outcome | Odds | Profit on a $20 stake | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team A by 1-6 | +250 | $50 | 28.6% |
| Team A by 7-12 | +350 | $70 | 22.2% |
| Team A by 13 or more | +400 | $80 | 20.0% |
| Team B by 1-6 | +300 | $60 | 25.0% |
| Team B by 7-12 | +700 | $140 | 12.5% |
| Team B by 13 or more | +1000 | $200 | 9.1% |
Every price is higher than a normal spread bet because each band covers only part of the result. To read a plus price as a chance, divide 100 by the odds plus 100: +350 is 100 divided by 450, or 22.2%.
Add all six implied chances and you get 117.4%. The 17.4 points above 100 are the sportsbook’s margin, spread across the bands. A standard spread at -110 on both sides carries 4.8. That gap is the cost of a market with many outcomes, and it is the first thing to weigh before you bet one.
How the bet settles
Take a $20 bet on Team A by 7-12 at +350 in the example above. Three possible finals show how it settles:
| Example final | Margin | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Team A 27, Team B 17 | Team A by 10 | Wins: $70 profit, $90 returned |
| Team A 27, Team B 14 | Team A by 13 | Loses, 13 is in the next band |
| Team A 20, Team B 14 | Team A by 6 | Loses, 6 is in the band below |
Getting the winner right is not enough. The bet also loses if Team A wins by the “wrong” amount, which is what separates it from a moneyline.
Ties and overtime are where books differ, so check your sportsbook’s rules before you bet. Some settle on the final score including overtime, so a basketball game that goes to overtime is graded on the margin after the extra period. Others settle on regulation time only and list a tie as its own outcome. In soccer, winning margin markets usually include a draw and settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Formats you will see
The layout changes from book to book and sport to sport:
- Band markets: each team has a set of ranges, like the table above. Basketball bands are often wider, such as 1-5, 6-10 and up, because the scores are higher.
- Exact margin: a price on one exact number, such as Team A by exactly 3. Soccer books often list the margin this way: by exactly 1 goal, by exactly 2, or by 3 or more.
In baseball the closest standard market is the run line, which is usually set at 1.5 runs. Our guide to how to bet on baseball covers it.
Winning margin against the point spread
A spread and a winning margin band can look alike, and they are not the same bet. Team A -6.5 wins on any margin of 7 or more, with no upper limit. Team A by 7-12 wins only on margins from 7 to 12, and a 20-point blowout loses.
You can rebuild a spread from the bands and compare prices. Using the example market, back Team A by 7-12 with $10 at +350 and Team A by 13 or more with $9 at +400:
- If Team A wins by 7-12, the first bet returns $45 and the second loses.
- If Team A wins by 13 or more, the second bet returns $45 and the first loses.
- Either way you stake $19 and get back $45, a profit of $26.
That is the same outcome as Team A -6.5, at a price of about +137 (26 divided by 19 is 1.37). If the alternate spread at -6.5 pays more than +137, the spread is the better deal and the bands are costing you. Alternate spreads work the same way as the ladders in our guide to alternate total points.
When a winning margin bet is worth it
The bet pays for a precise view. If you expect a close win for one team, the 1-6 band pays more than the moneyline because it leaves out the blowout. The same applies at the other end: if you expect a rout, the top band pays more than a spread that also counts the narrow wins.
Football margins are not spread evenly. Points arrive in 3s and 7s, so margins of 3 and 7 come up more often than 5 or 9. A band that starts or ends on one of those numbers matters more than its width suggests. Basketball margins are smoother, because most scoring comes 2 and 3 points at a time.
Current NFL and NBA games, with our view on each, are on the NFL predictions and NBA predictions pages.
Common mistakes
Four mistakes cost money in this market:
- Treating a band as a spread. Team A by 7-12 loses on a 13-point win.
- Forgetting the overtime rule. One book settles on the final score, another on regulation time. The same game can pay at one and lose at the other.
- Ignoring the book’s cut. Six outcomes at 117.4% cost far more than two at 104.8%. Add up the implied chances before you bet.
- Placing it live without checking. Live betting margin markets reprice after every score, and the bands you saw before the game may have moved.
FAQ
What does winning margin mean in betting? It is the number of points or goals by which the winner beats the loser. A winning margin bet asks you to pick the winner and the range that margin will fall in.
What does “winning margin 1-6” mean? It means the team you picked must win by at least 1 point and no more than 6. A 7-point win or any loss makes the bet a loser.
Does overtime count in a winning margin bet? It depends on the book. Some include overtime and settle on the final score; others settle on regulation time and treat a tie as its own result. Check your sportsbook’s rules.
What happens if the game is a draw? In soccer, the draw is usually one of the listed outcomes, so a draw bet wins and every team band loses. In sports without a listed draw, check the book’s rules on ties.