Premier League Predictions and Picks

Premier League odds, three ways

A Premier League match pays on one of three results, and our predictions price all three. The home win, the draw, the away win: our chance for each beside the market’s, margin taken out. Five points of daylight on any of them is a bet. Less, and we pass.

The draw matters more here than people think. In 2025-26 the Premier League drew 104 of its 380 matches, 27.4%, the most of Europe’s big five. Home sides won 162, 42.6%; away sides 114, 30.0%.

When the favorite does not win

Here is the number that should change how you read a Premier League price. From December to May, in matches where one side was priced as a heavy favorite, better than 60%, the draw came in 19 times in 65. The prices had it at about one in five.

It was not just the mismatches. Clear favorites, 45% to 60%, drew 34 times in 100. Even matches drew 24 in 81, close to their price. One half-season is a lean, not a law. But it is a reason to look hard at the draw price whenever a favorite looks safe.

Clubs that paid, and clubs that cost

Put one unit on a club to win every match that carried a full price, December to May. Aston Villa returned 11.5 units on 12 wins in 25. Manchester United returned 9.0 on 14. At the other end, Burnley won once in 24 and cost 17.5 units; Tottenham and Chelsea both lost more than 11.

Chelsea’s 7 wins in 25 cost 11.2 units because those wins came at short prices. Sunderland won 8 and made money because theirs did not. The price on each win decides it, not the count.

The scores, and the totals

Premier League scores cluster. A 2-1 either way was the commonest result, 64 matches; then 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0. Matches averaged 2.75 goals, both sides scored in 56.1%, and 55.0% went over 2.5.

The totals tell a sharper story. Matches posted at 2.5 went over 105 times in 198. Matches posted at 3.5, the ones the market expected to be wild, went over only 12 times in 48. When the book raises the total, the goals often stay home.

Goals moved with the calendar too. November was the season’s highest-scoring month at 2.98 a match, March the lowest at 2.31.

Long shots that landed

Underdogs won 54 of the 246 priced matches outright from December to May. The longest price among them was Nottingham Forest over Chelsea, 3-1 at +650. Wolverhampton beat Liverpool 2-1 at +600, and Aston Villa beat Manchester City 2-1 at +600 on the last day of the season.

How we price a Premier League match

Our club method takes how a side scores at that venue and what its opponent concedes, both against the Premier League’s own average, and turns them into three chances. The full method is on our soccer predictions page, and the predictions that use it show their working.

Premier League betting tips that hold

• Price the draw on every match. It came in 27.4% of the time across the season, more than any of the big five.
• Be careful laying a short favorite. From December to May, heavy favorites drew nearly three times in ten.
• Respect a high total. A 3.5 total went over only 12 times in 48.
• A club’s wins are not its profit. Chelsea won 7 and lost money; Sunderland won 8 and made it.
• Pass when the three prices look right. Five points is our bar.

The twenty clubs

Every Premier League club has a page on our site, listed below, each with its fixtures and our calls.

Questions and answers