Arsenal vs Liverpool Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Back Arsenal to win at Anfield. We have them at 45.3% and the market has them at 39.6%.

That 5.7-point gap is the whole argument. Our bar for a bet is 5 points, and Arsenal is the only one of the three results that clears it.

DraftKings, read at 19:27 UTC on 30 October 2026, lists Arsenal at +140, the draw at +245 and Liverpool at +190. A book builds a margin into its prices, so a set of three adds to more than 100%. Here the margin is 5.1%. With it removed, the market reads Arsenal 39.6%, the draw 27.6% and Liverpool 32.8%.

How 45.3% is reached

Each side’s expected goals start from the league’s average goals at that venue. That average is scaled by the side’s scoring rate at its venue and by the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average. A Poisson model on the two expected-goal figures then gives the home win, the draw and the away win. An outcome is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.

The number runs on 2025-26 venue records, 19 games a side, against that season’s averages over 380 games: 1.53 goals a game for the home side and 1.22 for the visitor. Arsenal’s away scoring was 1.29 times the visitor’s rate, and Liverpool’s home conceding was 0.86 of it. That gives Arsenal 1.36 expected goals.

Liverpool’s home scoring was 1.17 times the home rate. Arsenal’s away conceding was 0.55 of it. That leaves Liverpool at 0.99 expected goals.

From 1.36 against 0.99, the Poisson model gives Arsenal 45.3%, the draw 27.4% and Liverpool 27.3%. Against the market, Arsenal sit 5.7 points above, the draw 0.2 below and Liverpool 5.5 below.

This season so far

None of this season’s results are in our number. Liverpool are 4th of 20 with 15 points from 4-3-1 (wins, draws, losses), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Arsenal are 2nd with 21 points from 7-0-1, 13 scored and 5 conceded.

The venue records point both ways. Liverpool are 1-2-1 at Anfield, scoring 1.00 a game and conceding 1.25, against 1.79 and 1.05 last season. Arsenal are 3-0-1 away, scoring 1.00 and conceding 0.75, against 1.58 and 0.84. Our reading is that Liverpool’s home start would push the number further toward Arsenal, and Arsenal’s away scoring would pull it back. Four games a side proves nothing in either direction.

Liverpool at home, Arsenal on the road

These are the two halves the method uses. At Anfield in 2025-26, Liverpool went 10-6-3 in 19, scoring 34 and conceding 20. That is 1.79 a game for and 1.05 against. Arsenal went 11-5-3 away in 19, scoring 30 and conceding 16, or 1.58 and 0.84 a game.

The other two halves stay out of the number. Arsenal at home went 15-2-2 last season, scoring 2.16 a game and conceding 0.58. Liverpool on the road went 7-3-9, with 1.53 scored and 1.74 conceded. Neither venue is in play on Sunday.

The season around it

Arsenal finished 2025-26 1st of 20 with 85 points from 26-7-5, scoring 71 and conceding 27. Liverpool were 5th with 60 points from 17-9-12, scoring 63 and conceding 53. Eight games into 2026-27, Arsenal are 2nd on 21 points and Liverpool 4th on 15.

ESPN holds five games between the two since July 2024. With Liverpool listed at home, the results were 2-1 Liverpool on 31 July 2024, 2-2 on 11 May 2025 and 1-0 Liverpool on 31 August 2025. With Arsenal listed at home, they were 2-2 on 27 October 2024 and 0-0 on 8 January 2026. None of the five feeds our number.

Pick: Arsenal +140

Arsenal to win. Our 45.3% against the market’s 39.6% is a 5.7-point gap, and the threshold is 5.0. The price is +140 at DraftKings, read at 19:27 UTC on 30 October 2026. We hold one read of the price, so there is no move since opening to report.

The other two results are passes. The draw is 0.2 points under the market and Liverpool are 5.5 under. The record of the last five games between the two does not change that.

What kills the bet

The price kills it first, and the room is thin. Arsenal remain a bet down to +137. Any price shorter than that ends the bet, and +140 is close. Liverpool would become the bet at +327 or longer, against +190 now. The draw would need +325 or longer, against +245.

No injury list was read for this page, so none of the figures above reflect who is out. Check the lineups before you bet. The sample can also change the number. The method uses last season’s 19 venue games a side, and this season’s 4 at each venue are not in it yet.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals, with the over at -120 and the under at -105. Without the margin, the market has the over at 51.6% and the under at 48.4%. Our number has the over at 41.6% and the under at 58.4%, so we put the over 10.0 points below the market. The method never bets the goals, so this is for reference only.

Four of Liverpool’s 8 league games this season went over 2.5, and so did 4 of Arsenal’s 8. Last season the count was 23 of 38 for Liverpool and 20 of 38 for Arsenal.

Arsenal at Liverpool, English Premier League, Sunday 1 November, 11:30 AM ET, Anfield, Liverpool. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 30 October 2026, 19:27 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, 2026-27 and 2025-26 English Premier League league games. Nothing here states who is available.