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Bundesliga Predictions and Picks

Free Bundesliga predictions and picks for every match. The three-way price, our three chances, and a decision: bet or pass.

Bundesliga teams

The goals league

Want goals? This is the league. Bundesliga matches averaged 3.24 goals in 2025-26, the most of Europe’s big five. Both sides scored in 61.8% of matches, 63.7% went over 2.5, and only 12 of 306 finished 0-0.

That changes the bet. In Germany the 2.5 total is not the middle of the market, it is the low end. From December to May the books posted 78 matches at 3.5, and those went over 40 times. At 2.5, the over came in 57 times in 102.

How often the over came in, by the total posted, Bundesliga 2025-260%20%40%60%80%55.9%Total 2.551.3%Total 3.5Over
Priced games only, Dec 2025 to May 2026; totals posted on at least 15 games. Games per total: 1.5 1, 2.5 102, 3.5 78, 4.5 8. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

How the matches end

Home sides won 134 of 306 matches, 43.8%; away sides 97, 31.7%; the draw 75, 24.5%. The commonest scores: 2-1 either way, 48 matches; then 1-0, and 3-1 ahead of 1-1. No other big league had 3-1 among its three commonest scores.

The most common final scores, Bundesliga 2025-260%5%10%15%20%15.7%2-112.4%1-011.4%3-111.1%1-18.8%2-05.6%2-25.2%3-05.2%4-0Share of games
Share of 306 league games; a score counts either way round (2-1 includes 1-2). Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Scoring ran highest in May, 3.63 a match, and lowest in October, 2.68.

Goals per game, month by month, Bundesliga 2025-26012343.44Aug3.52Sep2.68Oct3.29Nov2.93Dec3.36Jan3.06Feb3.23Mar3.28Apr3.63MayGoals per game
Both teams combined; months with fewer than 10 games left out. Games per month: Aug 18, Sep 27, Oct 28, Nov 35, Dec 27, Jan 42, Feb 35, Mar 31, Apr 36, May 27. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Bayern, and the price of winning

Take every priced Bundesliga match from December to May and stake a unit on one club to win each time. Bayern Munich won 16 of 21 and returned 0.3 units. That is what backing a club at short prices every week looks like: the wins come, the profit does not.

Bundesliga 2025-26: one unit on a club to win, every priced gameFC Augsburg+15.6 (8 wins in 21)Mainz+5.2 (9 wins in 21)Borussia Dortmund+2.4 (14 wins in 21)Bayern Munich+0.3 (16 wins in 21)VfB Stuttgart+0.3 (11 wins in 21)VfL Wolfsburg-10.2 (4 wins in 21)Eintracht Frankfurt-10.6 (5 wins in 21)Werder Bremen-11.9 (4 wins in 21)1. FC Heidenheim 1846-12.9 (3 wins in 21)FC Cologne-14.6 (3 wins in 21)
A draw loses the bet. Only the 189 of 306 games where ESPN holds all three prices, Dec 2025 to May 2026; the 5 best and 5 worst of 18 clubs. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Augsburg won 8 in 21 and returned 15.6, the best in the league, mostly on two results. Cologne won 3 and cost 14.6; Heidenheim, Bremen, Frankfurt and Wolfsburg all lost more than 10.

The upset of the season

Augsburg beat Bayern 2-1 in January at +1400, the longest price that won in any of Europe’s big five from December to May. Augsburg did it again in April, 2-1 over Leverkusen at +600. Underdogs won 35 of the 189 priced matches.

The longest prices that won, Bundesliga 2025-26FC Augsburg +1400 over Bayern Munich, 2-1FC Augsburg +600 over Bayer Leverkusen, 2-1St. Pauli +475 over TSG Hoffenheim, 1-0Mainz +400 over RB Leipzig, 2-1St. Pauli +360 over VfB Stuttgart, 2-1Mainz +350 over TSG Hoffenheim, 2-1
The underdog of the two sides winning outright, by its pre-game price; 35 such wins among the 189 priced games, Dec 2025 to May 2026. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The draw, as priced

Even matches drew 21 times in 67, above the 27.8% priced. Heavy favorites drew 9 times in 44. Small samples, one half-season. Read the draw price, do not build on it.

Bundesliga 2025-26: the draw, by how even the game was priced0%10%20%30%40%27.8%31.3%Even game24.7%26.9%Clear favorite17.4%20.5%Heavy favoriteDraw as pricedDraw came in
Priced games only, Dec 2025 to May 2026. Favorite's chance as priced, margin removed: even game under 45%, clear favorite 45% to 60%, heavy favorite over 60%. Games per band: even game 67, clear favorite 78, heavy favorite 44. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

How we price a Bundesliga match

Our Bundesliga numbers use the same club method as every league we cover, set out on the soccer predictions page: goals for at the venue, goals against for the opponent, both relative to the league norm, run through a Poisson model. Five points clear of the market is a bet. For the title race, see our Bundesliga odds and predictions, and our Bundesliga betting guide for the markets.

Bundesliga betting tips

  • Start the total at 3.5, not 2.5. The league scored 3.24 a match.
  • Both teams to score is the default here. It landed in 61.8% of matches.
  • Backing Bayern to win is not a profit plan. 16 wins in 21 returned 0.3 units.
  • Long shots land. Augsburg at +1400.
  • Pass when the gap is under five points.

The Bundesliga sides

Below are the Bundesliga sides we follow, one page apiece, fixtures and predictions together.

Questions and answers

Is the Bundesliga a high-scoring league?

The highest of the big five: in 2025-26, 3.24 on average; 63.7% of matches went over 2.5.

Does backing Bayern Munich make money?

Not much. From December to May Bayern won 16 of 21 priced matches, and one unit on them each time returned 0.3 units.

What was the biggest Bundesliga upset of 2025-26?

Augsburg over Bayern Munich, 2-1 at +1400 in January.

Past games

  1. Gladbach at Cologne · 11 OctNo bet
  2. Schalke at Freiburg · 11 OctNo bet
  3. Leverkusen at Mainz · 10 OctBayer Leverkusen +115
  4. Bayern at Augsburg · 10 OctBayern Munich -550
  5. Frankfurt at RB Leipzig · 10 OctRB Leipzig -185
  6. Hamburg at Hoffenheim · 10 OctNo bet
  7. Elversberg at Union Berlin · 10 OctNo bet
  8. Stuttgart at Paderborn · 10 OctNo bet
  9. Bremen at Dortmund · 9 OctNo bet
  10. Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Recap: Miguel Gutiérrez Drives 2-0 Win · 20 SepThe Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig recap belonged to Miguel Gutiérrez.
Show all 27 past predictions
  1. Hoffenheim at Paderborn · 20 SepThe Paderborn vs Hoffenheim recap ended with the home side producing its first Bundesliga victory of the season.
  2. Elversberg at Schalke · 20 SepThe Schalke vs Elversberg recap delivered the complete opposite of the pregame total thesis.
  3. Mainz at Gladbach · 19 SepThe Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz 05 recap starts with exactly what bettors wanted from the preview: Mainz won 4-3 at Borussia-Park, ca…
  4. Freiburg at Frankfurt · 19 SepThe Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg recap produced four goals and two Freiburg comebacks, but it did not produce the away victory the previ…
  5. Cologne at Hamburg · 19 SepThe Hamburger SV vs Köln recap finally gave HSV something positive after a miserable start.
  6. Dortmund at Stuttgart · 19 SepThe VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund recap came down to one clean second-half combination.
  7. Augsburg at Bremen · 19 SepThe Werder Bremen vs Augsburg recap delivered almost exactly the kind of volatility the pregame betting thesis wanted, only with a far more…
  8. Union Berlin at Bayern · 18 SepThe Bayern vs Union Berlin recap could not have gone further against the pregame betting thesis.
  9. Bayern at Elversberg · 13 SepThe Elversberg vs Bayern Munich recap delivered the expected winner but not remotely the expected margin.
  10. RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Recap: Antonio Nusa Sparks 5-0 Over Explosion · 13 SepThe RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV recap produced exactly the high-scoring favorite script the preview wanted.
  11. Leverkusen at Augsburg · 12 SepThe Augsburg vs Leverkusen recap finished exactly on the ScoresAndStats total requirement.
  12. Bremen at Cologne · 12 SepThe Cologne vs Werder Bremen recap followed the low-scoring path the ScoresAndStats preview expected.
  13. Paderborn at Dortmund · 12 SepThe Dortmund vs Paderborn recap produced a comfortable Borussia Dortmund win and a losing total ticket.
  14. Gladbach at Freiburg · 12 SepThe Freiburg vs Monchengladbach recap produced the most decisive Bundesliga result of Saturday’s six-match group.
  15. Stuttgart at Hoffenheim · 12 SepThe Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart recap finally gave Hoffenheim its first Bundesliga points of the season, but not in the high-scoring format the…
  16. Frankfurt at Mainz · 12 SepThe Mainz vs Frankfurt recap produced the clearest failed side recommendation of the Bundesliga slate.
  17. Schalke at Union Berlin · 11 SepThe Union Berlin vs Schalke recap ended with two goals deep in stoppage time and a losing ticket for the pregame Under 3 recommendation.