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Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Union Berlin Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 15 Oct 2026

No bet on Borussia Dortmund at 1. FC Union Berlin. The price and our number agree to within a point on every outcome.

DraftKings has Dortmund at -180, the draw at +330 and Union Berlin at +390. Strip out the book’s 7.9% margin and the market reads 59.6% for Dortmund, 21.5% for the draw and 18.9% for Union Berlin. Our number reads 59.5%, 22.4% and 18.1%.

The draw is the only outcome where we sit above the market, by 0.9 points. Dortmund are 0.1 below it and Union Berlin 0.8 below. A bet needs our chance 5 points or more above the market’s. Nothing comes close, so this is a pass.

Our number gives 1. FC Union Berlin 18.1 percent, the market 18.9 percentBorussia Dortmund at 1. FC Union Berlin: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals18.1%22.4%59.5%The market1X2 prices, margin removed18.9%21.5%59.6%Prices: 1. FC Union Berlin +390, draw +330, Borussia Dortmund -180. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.1. FC Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-15 20:30 UTC.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: a side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue multiplied by the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the usual count model for goals, turns the pair into home, draw and away chances.

Neither side has enough games at the venue this season. Union Berlin have played 3 at home and Dortmund 2 away, and the method waits for 6 before it trusts the current season. So both numbers come from the 2025-26 Bundesliga, measured against that season’s averages over 306 games: 1.78 goals a game for the home side and 1.46 for the visitor.

Union Berlin went 5-7-5 at home last season, scoring and conceding 1.53 a game. Dortmund went 9-5-3 away, scoring 1.76 and conceding 1.06. Union’s home scoring ran at 0.86 of the league’s home rate, and Dortmund’s away defence let in 0.6 of it, which gives Union 0.91 expected goals. Dortmund’s away scoring ran at 1.21 of the away rate, against a Union home defence at 1.05, which gives Dortmund 1.85.

1. FC Union Berlin at home and Borussia Dortmund away1. FC Union Berlin at home and Borussia Dortmund away, this season and last1. FC Union Berlin at home, 2026-27 German Bundesliga1-1-1 in 3scored 1.67 a gameconceded 2.00 a game1. FC Union Berlin at home, 2025-26 German Bundesliga (our number)5-7-5 in 17scored 1.53 a gameconceded 1.53 a gameBorussia Dortmund away, 2026-27 German Bundesliga2-0-0 in 2scored 2.00 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameBorussia Dortmund away, 2025-26 German Bundesliga (our number)9-5-3 in 17scored 1.76 a gameconceded 1.06 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season, when that record holds six or more.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Dortmund are second after 5 games, 4-1-0 with 11 scored, 4 conceded and 13 points. They also finished second in 2025-26, with 73 points from 34 games. Union Berlin are 16th of 18 with 4 points, 1-1-3, 5 scored and 17 conceded. They finished 11th last season with 39.

1. FC Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and last1. FC Union Berlin2026-27 German Bundesliga16 of 18, 4 pts in 52025-26 German Bundesliga11 of 18, 39 pts in 34Borussia Dortmund2026-27 German Bundesliga2 of 18, 13 pts in 52025-26 German Bundesliga2 of 18, 73 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026.

The case for leaning away from the pass is Union’s start. They have lost both away games this season without scoring, conceding 11 in the two, and they have let in 17 in 5 games, against 58 in 34 last season. At home they are 1-1-1, with 5 scored and 6 conceded. If those five games are the better guide, Union are weaker than last season’s record says and Dortmund’s chance is too low. Three home games and two away games are not enough to say which it is.

This season’s averages are also higher, 2.36 goals a game for home sides and 1.47 for visitors across the first 45 games. The method does not use them yet.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. The widest gap is 0.9 points, on the draw, against a 5-point threshold.

What changes it

The price. At the book’s current margin, Dortmund become a bet at -142 or longer, the draw at +433 or longer and Union Berlin at +608 or longer. Dortmund are the nearest: their price would have to drift from -180 to -142.

The lineups. Nothing on this page says who is available for either side. Check the team news before you bet.

The sample. Union Berlin reach 6 home games and Dortmund 6 away games later in the season. From then the method uses this season’s records, and the number will move with them.

The total

The posted total is 3.5 goals, over +125 and under -155. With the margin removed, the market puts the over at 42.2%. Our expected goals add to 2.76 and give the over 30.0% and the under 70.0%, against the market’s 57.8%. That gap is shown for reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

Last season 16 of Union Berlin’s 34 league games went over 3.5, and 11 of Dortmund’s 34.

The last meetings

ESPN holds five meetings, from March 2024 to January 2026. Dortmund won four of them: 2-0 and 3-0 at Union Berlin, and 6-0 and 3-0 at home. Union’s one win was 2-1 at home in October 2024. The method does not use them.

Last meetings of 1. FC Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund1. FC Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund: the last meetings ESPN holds24 Jan 20261. FC Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund31 Aug 2025Borussia Dortmund 3-0 1. FC Union Berlin22 Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund 6-0 1. FC Union Berlin5 Oct 20241. FC Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia Dortmund2 Mar 20241. FC Union Berlin 0-2 Borussia DortmundHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026.

Borussia Dortmund at 1. FC Union Berlin, German Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October, 9:30 AM ET, Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 October 2026, 20:30 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 15 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.