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Ligue 1 Predictions and Picks

Free Ligue 1 predictions and picks for every match. Home, draw and away, each priced, and the call in the first lines.

Upcoming games

Friday 9 October1 game
Ligue 1Fri 9 Oct
Lyon
at
Lens
SpreadTotalMoneyLYO+0.5U 3.5+170LEN-0.5O 3.5+140
Our call

Bet Lens at +140. The bet holds down to -121. Our number makes them the favorite at home to Lyon.

Keylor SantosRead the predictionLyon at Lens prediction
Saturday 10 October5 games
Ligue 1Sat 10 Oct
Angers
at
Brest
SpreadTotalMoneyANG+0.5U 2.5+260BRE-0.5O 2.5+100
Our call

Bet Brest at +100. The bet holds down to -144. Our number has them winning at home to Angers well over half the time.

Keylor SantosRead the predictionAngers at Brest prediction
Ligue 1Sat 10 Oct
Le Havre AC
at
Lille
SpreadTotalMoneyAC+1.5U 2.5+550LIL-1.5O 2.5-225
Our call

Bet the draw at +390. The bet holds down to +313. Our number has a low-scoring game for Le Havre AC at Lille.

Keylor SantosRead the predictionAC at Lille prediction
Ligue 1Sat 10 Oct
Le Mans
at
Paris Saint-Germain
SpreadTotalMoneyMAN+2.5U 4.5+2200SAI-2.5O 4.5-1200
Our call

No bet on Le Mans at Paris Saint-Germain. Le Mans have 2 away games this season, fewer than the 6 the method needs, and no away record of 4…

Keylor SantosRead the predictionMans at Saint-Germain prediction
Ligue 1Sat 10 Oct
Paris FC
at
Lorient
SpreadTotalMoneyFC-0.5U 2.5+125LOR+0.5O 2.5+225
Our call

Bet Lorient at +225. The bet holds down to +152. Our number has them beating Paris FC 42.8% of the time; the market has 29.3%.

Keylor SantosRead the predictionFC at Lorient prediction
Ligue 1Sat 10 Oct
Toulouse
at
AS Monaco
SpreadTotalMoneyTOU+0.5U 2.5+400MON-0.5O 2.5-165
Our call

Bet Toulouse at +400. The bet holds down to +226.

Keylor SantosRead the predictionToulouse at Monaco prediction
Sunday 11 October2 games
Ligue 1Sun 11 Oct
AJ Auxerre
at
Stade Rennais
SpreadTotalMoneyAUX+1.5U 3.5+500REN-1.5O 3.5-225
Our call

No bet on AJ Auxerre at Stade Rennais. Our number and the market agree within 3.7 points on every outcome, short of the 5 points a bet need…

Keylor SantosRead the predictionAuxerre at Rennais prediction
Ligue 1Sun 11 Oct
Strasbourg
at
Nice
SpreadTotalMoneySTR+0.5U 2.5+190NIC-0.5O 2.5+130
Our call

Bet Strasbourg at +190. The bet holds down to -133.

Keylor SantosRead the predictionStrasbourg at Nice prediction

One giant, and everyone else

Watch Paris Saint-Germain’s matches. From December to May, three of the four longest prices that won in Ligue 1 were against PSG. Lyon beat them 2-1 at +750. Stade Rennais won 3-1 at +650. Monaco won 3-1 at +600.

The longest prices that won, Ligue 1 2025-26Nantes +950 over Marseille, 2-0Lyon +750 over Paris Saint-Germain, 2-1Stade Rennais +650 over Paris Saint-Germain, 3-1AS Monaco +600 over Paris Saint-Germain, 3-1AJ Auxerre +600 over Lille, 2-0Paris FC +500 over Paris Saint-Germain, 2-1
The underdog of the two sides winning outright, by its pre-game price; 31 such wins among the 170 priced games, Dec 2025 to May 2026. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The longest of all was Nantes over Marseille in January, 2-0 at +950. Underdogs won 31 of the 170 priced matches outright.

Home sides, and how matches end

In 2025-26 Ligue 1 home sides won 141 of the 305 matches ESPN records, 46.2%, the second-strongest home record of the big five. Away sides won 90, 29.5%; 74 were drawn, 24.3%.

The commonest score was 1-0 either way, 60 matches, ahead of 2-1, 2-0, 1-1 and 3-1. Matches averaged 2.83 goals, both sides scored in 50.8%, and 52.8% went over 2.5.

The most common final scores, Ligue 1 2025-260%5%10%15%20%19.7%1-013.1%2-110.5%2-09.5%1-17.9%3-17.5%0-06.9%3-04.9%2-2Share of games
Share of 305 league games; a score counts either way round (2-1 includes 1-2). Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The totals

From December to May the books posted 126 matches at 2.5 goals, and 61 went over. The 42 posted at 3.5 went over 18 times. Close to even at 2.5, a lean to the under at 3.5.

How often the over came in, by the total posted, Ligue 1 2025-260%20%40%60%80%48.4%Total 2.542.9%Total 3.5Over
Priced games only, Dec 2025 to May 2026; totals posted on at least 15 games. Games per total: 1.5 2, 2.5 126, 3.5 42. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Scoring jumped around through the season: 3.44 a match in October, 2.47 in February, 3.14 in April.

Goals per game, month by month, Ligue 1 2025-26012343.04Aug2.59Sep3.44Oct2.50Nov2.50Dec3.00Jan2.47Feb2.55Mar3.14Apr2.89MayGoals per game
Both teams combined; months with fewer than 10 games left out. Games per month: Aug 27, Sep 27, Oct 36, Nov 36, Dec 18, Jan 31, Feb 36, Mar 31, Apr 35, May 28. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Clubs that paid, and one that never did

Stake one unit per match on a Ligue 1 club to win, across its priced games from December to May. Stade Rennais returned 10.2 units on 11 wins in 19. Lyon returned 9.1 on 11. Metz did not win a priced match all half-season, 0 in 19, and cost 19 units. Nice won twice and cost 14.

Ligue 1 2025-26: one unit on a club to win, every priced gameStade Rennais+10.2 (11 wins in 19)Lyon+9.1 (11 wins in 19)Lorient+6.3 (7 wins in 19)AS Monaco+4.9 (9 wins in 19)Lille+3.1 (9 wins in 19)Le Havre AC-6.0 (4 wins in 19)Brest-6.7 (5 wins in 19)Angers-7.2 (4 wins in 19)Nice-14.0 (2 wins in 19)Metz-19.0 (0 wins in 19)
A draw loses the bet. Only the 170 of 305 games where ESPN holds all three prices, Dec 2025 to May 2026; the 5 best and 5 worst of 18 clubs. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The draw, as priced

Clear favorites, 45% to 60%, drew 22 times in 74, above the 25.3% priced. Even matches drew 13 times in 51, below. Two small samples pulling in opposite directions: in Ligue 1, read the draw price match by match.

Ligue 1 2025-26: the draw, by how even the game was priced0%10%20%30%40%28.8%25.5%Even game25.3%29.7%Clear favorite18.1%20.0%Heavy favoriteDraw as pricedDraw came in
Priced games only, Dec 2025 to May 2026. Favorite's chance as priced, margin removed: even game under 45%, clear favorite 45% to 60%, heavy favorite over 60%. Games per band: even game 51, clear favorite 74, heavy favorite 45. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

How we price a Ligue 1 match

Our club method, set out on the soccer predictions page, weighs a side’s goals at the venue against what its opponent allows, both scaled to the Ligue 1 average, to give a chance for each result. A five-point gap over the market’s chance is a bet.

Ligue 1 betting tips

  • Watch the PSG price. Three of the four longest winners of December to May came against them.
  • Start from the home side. 46.2% of Ligue 1 matches were home wins.
  • Lean under at 3.5. 18 overs in 42.
  • Read each draw price on its own. The bands went both ways.
  • No five-point gap, no bet.

Ligue 1 clubs

Ligue 1’s clubs each get a page, listed below; every page pairs the schedule with our picks.

Questions and answers

How strong is home advantage in Ligue 1?

Second only to LaLiga: in 2025-26, 141 of 305 matches, 46.2%.

Which Ligue 1 underdog paid the most?

Nantes, 2-0 winners over Marseille in January 2026, at +950. Lyon beat Paris Saint-Germain at +750.

How many goals are scored in a Ligue 1 match?

In 2025-26, 2.83 on average; 52.8% of matches went over 2.5.

Past games

  1. 20 Sep 2026Brest at Auxerre
  2. 20 Sep 2026Saint-Germain at Marseille
  3. 20 Sep 2026Lille at Nice
  4. 19 Sep 2026Troyes at Angers
  5. 19 Sep 2026Lorient at Mans
  6. 19 Sep 2026Rennais at Lyon
  7. 19 Sep 2026Strasbourg at FC
  8. 19 Sep 2026AC at Toulouse
  9. 18 Sep 2026Lens at Monaco
  10. 13 Sep 2026Saint-Germain at Brest
Show all 19 past predictions
  1. 13 Sep 2026Lens at Mans
  2. 13 Sep 2026Troyes at Lille
  3. 12 Sep 2026Nice at Auxerre
  4. 12 Sep 2026Angers at AC
  5. 12 Sep 2026Toulouse at Lorient
  6. 12 Sep 2026Lyon at FC
  7. 12 Sep 2026Monaco at Strasbourg
  8. 11 Sep 2026Rennes at Marseille
  9. 11 Sep 2026Marseille at Rennais