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Ligue 1 · Saturday 10 October

Toulouse vs AS Monaco Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

Bet Toulouse at +400. The bet holds down to +226.

DraftKings has AS Monaco at -165, the draw at +340 and Toulouse at +400. With the book’s margin of 5.0% removed, that is 59.3% for Monaco, 21.6% for the draw and 19.0% for Toulouse. Our number gives Monaco 42.3%, the draw 23.4% and Toulouse 34.3%.

The gap on Toulouse is 15.3 points. The draw is 1.8 points above the market and Monaco 17.0 below. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the widest gap wins. Toulouse clear it by 10.3 points.

Our number gives AS Monaco 42.3 percent, the market 59.3 percentToulouse at AS Monaco: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals42.3%23.4%34.3%The market1X2 prices, margin removed59.3%21.6%19%Prices: AS Monaco -165, draw +340, Toulouse +400. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.AS MonacoToulouse
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

Our number still has Monaco as the more likely winner. The bet is on the price: +400 pays as if Toulouse win 19.0% of the time, and our number has them at 34.3%.

How the number is built

One clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the standard count model for goals, turns the two figures into home, draw and away chances.

Both sides take last season’s numbers. Monaco have played 2 home games this season and Toulouse 2 away games, and the method needs 6 at the venue before it uses this season. So Monaco’s number comes from their 17 home games of 2025-26 and Toulouse’s from their 16 away games, each against that season’s league averages: 1.59 goals a game for the home side and 1.24 for the visitor, over 305 games. ESPN’s 2025-26 table has Toulouse on 33 games, not 34, which is why their away sample is 16.

Monaco went 10-2-5 at home last season, scoring 1.94 a game and conceding 1.35. Toulouse went 6-2-8 away, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.38. Against the averages, Monaco scored at 1.22 times the home rate and Toulouse conceded at 0.87 times it. Toulouse scored at 1.11 times the away rate and Monaco conceded at 1.09 times it. That gives Monaco 1.68 expected goals and Toulouse 1.50.

AS Monaco at home and Toulouse awayAS Monaco at home and Toulouse away, this season and lastAS Monaco at home, 2026-27 French Ligue 12-0-0 in 2scored 2.00 a gameconceded 0.50 a gameAS Monaco at home, 2025-26 French Ligue 1 (our number)10-2-5 in 17scored 1.94 a gameconceded 1.35 a gameToulouse away, 2026-27 French Ligue 10-2-0 in 2scored 2.00 a gameconceded 2.00 a gameToulouse away, 2025-26 French Ligue 1 (our number)6-2-8 in 16scored 1.38 a gameconceded 1.38 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Monaco lead Ligue 1 after 5 games: 4 wins, 1 draw, 8 scored and 3 conceded, 13 points. Last season they finished 7th with 54 points from 34 games. Toulouse are 13th with 5 points: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, 7 scored and 9 conceded. Last season they finished 10th with 44 points.

AS Monaco and Toulouse in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastAS Monaco2026-27 French Ligue 11 of 18, 13 pts in 52025-26 French Ligue 17 of 18, 54 pts in 34Toulouse2026-27 French Ligue 113 of 18, 5 pts in 52025-26 French Ligue 110 of 18, 44 pts in 33Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the bet is this season. The number leans on last season, and this season Monaco are top and unbeaten. At home they are 2-0-0, with 4 scored and 1 conceded. Toulouse are 0-2-0 away, with 4 scored and 4 conceded. Two games at each venue are too few for the method to use. They are the risk in this bet.

Pick: Toulouse +400

Toulouse to win, at +400 at DraftKings. It stays a bet down to +226. Shorter than +226, with the book’s margin as it stands, the gap falls below 5 points and it stops being a bet.

What changes it

The price. Toulouse stay a bet down to +226. The draw would become a bet at +418 or longer, and Monaco at +156 or longer.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals, over -170 and under +135. With the margin removed the market has the over at 59.7% and the under at 40.3%. Our number has the over at 61.6% and the under at 38.4%. That is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

Last season Monaco’s games went over 2.5 in 22 of 34, and Toulouse’s in 18 of 33.

The last meetings

ESPN holds five meetings since February 2024. Monaco won two, Toulouse won one, and two were drawn, the latest 2-2 in April 2026. The method does not use them.

Last meetings of AS Monaco and ToulouseAS Monaco and Toulouse: the last meetings ESPN holds25 Apr 2026Toulouse 2-2 AS Monaco25 Oct 2025AS Monaco 1-0 Toulouse7 Mar 2025Toulouse 1-1 AS Monaco7 Dec 2024AS Monaco 2-0 Toulouse18 Feb 2024AS Monaco 1-2 ToulouseHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Toulouse at AS Monaco, French Ligue 1, Saturday 10 October, 2:45 PM ET, Stade Louis II. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.