NASCAR Picks This Week: Pennzoil 400, The LiUNA!, Ecosave 200

NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge

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The first month of the 2025 NASCAR season has been an exciting one not only for the Cup Series, but the Xfinity Series as well. Additionally, after a two-week hiatus, the Craftsman Truck Series returns to action. All three circuits will compete at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend.

The Craftsman Truck Series will kick off the weekend in Vegas with the Ecosave 200 on Friday , March 14. The race will begin at 9pm ET and can be seen on FS1.

Next up is the Xfinity Series with their The LiUNA! race on Saturday, March 15. You can watch this race in its entirety on The CW beginning at 4:30pm ET.

Like usual, the Cup Series will close out the first of two trips to annual trips to Vegas with the Pennzoil 400. The race begins at 3:30pm ET and will be televised on FS1.

Without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week.

NASCAR Picks Today

NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week

• Race: Pennzoil 400
• Race #: 5^th of the season
• Date: March 16
• Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

After four races, we’ve learned that this is Christopher Bell’s world and we’re all just living in it. Bell has won three races in a row after capping off an impressive win in Phoenix last weekend. He defied the odds to win at COTA two weeks ago and also pulled off a strong performance in Atlanta three races ago.

It’s clear that Christopher Bell is now the man to beat in regards to the  NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

Last week, I dismissed Bell’s chances of winning three in a row. Once again, he made us all look silly. So, maybe we should just bet on Bell to win every weekend until he stops this red-hot streak.

Top Chevrolet Driver at Las Vegas

• Kyle Larson (+120)
• William Byron (+280)
• Chase Elliott (+700)
• Ross Chastain (+900)
• Kyle Busch (+900)
• Alex Bowman (+900)

Pretty much, this prop bet all comes down to whether or not a Hendrick Motorsports driver can finish as the Top Chevy driver or not.

Kyle Larson leads the Cup Series with a 9.4 average finish and won last year’s race. William Byron won the 2023 Pennzoil 400 race, while Alex Bowman won the 2022 Pennzoil 400 event. And, for good measure, Larson also won the 2021 Pennzoil 400.

That’s four straight spring Las Vegas wins for Hendrick. And, that doesn’t even include Chase Elliott who is highly capable of winning this weekend, if he’s racing to his full potential.

Ross Chastain has not won a Cup Series race at Vegas, but he does have four Top 5s in 13 appearances. Kyle Busch leads the field with 27 appearances, 12 Top 5s, and 15 Top 10s. He’s also third in average finish. I like Busch’s chances for another Top 10 finish on the season but I don’t see him beating out Hendrick’s drivers.

I often like to look for better value than the odds-on favorite to win a prop bet, but Kyle Larson is heating up on the track and now heading to a speedway where he’s won two of the last four Pennzoil 400 races. Even if he comes up short of taking the checkered flag, I still think he can finish as the Top Chevy driver.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+120)

Top Ford Driver at Las Vegas

• Ryan Blaney (+130)
• Joey Logano (+225)
• Brad Keselowski (+500)
• Chris Buescher (+550)
• Austin Cindric (+1600)
• Josh Berry (+1600)

Joey Logano has the most wins at Las Vegas among the field of Cup Series drivers, but he has yet to crack the Top 8 in a Pennzoil 400 race since 2020. His teammate Ryan Blaney was third in this race last year and has two Top 6 finishes in the last three Vegas races.

Brad Keselowski is a bit of a sleeper in this race as he does have three Vegas wins, nine Top 5s, and 13 Top 10s over a 23-start Cup Series career. Unfortunately, he hasn’t cracked the Top 5 in the Pennzoil 400 since 2021. And he has an 18.0 average finish over his last three Pennzoil 400 finishes.

Chris Buescher has an 18.1 average finish in 16 Las Vegas starts with just two Top 10 finishes. It will take a lot of luck for Buescher to outperform the Penske drivers. The same can be said for Austin Cindric who has one Top 10 in six Vegas starts. He also has an abysmal 23.3 average finish.

As much as I like Logano at Vegas, he’s performed better in the fall Vegas race over the last few years compared to the spring event. Plus, Logano has been sluggish over the first month of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season.

So, almost by default, I am taking Ryan Blaney to finish as the Top Ford driver.

Bet: Ryan Blaney (+130)

Top Toyota Driver at Las Vegas

• Christopher Bell (-115)
• Tyler Reddick (+225)
• Denny Hamlin (+425)
• Chase Briscoe (+1400)
• Bubba Wallace (+1800)
• Ty Gibbs (+1800)

Christopher Bell is the man to beat for the early part of the season. However, Vegas has not been one of his best tracks as he’s never won at LVMS in 10 stars. And, his two runner-up results over the last three Vegas races were both in the South Point 400. He has only one Top 5 in the Pennzoil 400 for his career.

Tyler Reddick is a solid consideration for this prop bet as he was second in this race last year. Yet, that’s the only Top 5 in 10 Vegas starts. Additionally. He crashed out of the fall Vegas event last year and has a 11.5 average finish in his last four Pennzoil 400 races.

Chase Briscoe has never finished in the Top 10 for a Pennzoil 400 race and has a 22.8 average finish at Vegas.

Bubba Wallace has two Top 6 finishes in 14 Vegas starts with both coming in the Pennzoil 400 race. Unfortunately, Wallace also has five Pennzoil finishes of 21^st or worse and a career 22.2 average finish at LVMS.

Ty Gibbs finished 5^th in last year’s Pennzoil 400. However, his other four Vegas appearances saw finishes of 22^nd or worse. He has a 13.5 average finish in his two Pennzoil appearances.

Once you get past Bell and Reddick, it’s clear that Denny Hamlin is the choice for this prop bet. Hamlin has the 4^th best average finish among the field at 12.3, while he’s also tied for third in Top 10s (14).

Hamlin has one win, four Top 5s, and seven Top 10s in his last nine Vegas appearances. The #11 car finished second to Bell last weekend, and I see Hamlin edging out his JGR teammate this weekend.

Bet: Denny Hamlin (+425)

NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week

• Race: The LiUNA!
• Race #: 5^th of the season
• Date: March 15
• Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

The Xfinity Series has seen four different winners over the first four races, which makes these events even more intriguing. Last weekend, Aric Almirola held off Alex Bowman to take the checkered flag in Phoenix. This weekend, there are a handful of drivers who can win in Vegas.

John H. Nemecheck is the defending winner of this race. However, he is driving full-time in the Cup Series now. Additionally, A.J. Allmendinger won the fall Vegas race last year and he is also up in the Cup Series as well.

Will we get a fifth different driver to win on Saturday or will someone like Austin Hill, Jesse Love or Connor Zilisch pick up their second win of the season?

The LiUNA! Odds

• Justin Allgaier (+300)
• Aric Almirola (+300)
• Sheldon Creed (+800)
• Austin Hill (+800)
• Connor Zilisch (+900)
• Jesse Love (+1000)
• Sam Mayer (+1000)
• Taylor Gray (+1600)
• Brandon Jones (+1800)
• Sammy Smith (+2000)
• Carson Kvapil (+2200)

The LiUNA! Favorites

We have four drivers sitting on top of the betting boards for this weekend’s Xfinity Series race. However, two are clearly out in front of the pack:

Justin Allgaier (+300) enters this weekend’s race as the betting favorite along with Aric Almirola. The defending Xfinity Series champ sits second in the driver standings with two Top 5s in four races so far. Despite his fantastic stats at Vegas, Allgaier has yet to win at this track.

In 21 starts, he has zero wins, 11 Top 5s, 18 To p10s, and a 7.2 average finish. He also has seven consecutive Top 10 finishes at LVMS.

Aric Almirola (+300) has two appearances in Xfinity and two Top 3 finishes. He was third in Atlanta and won at Phoenix last weekend. If he were to drive in Xfinity full-time, Almirola would be a contender for the championship. However, Almirola has never cracked the Top 10 at Vegas for the Xfinity Series.

Sheldon Creed (+800) is 6^th in the standings but comes to a track where he’s never cracked the Top 5. In six Vegas starts, Creed has three Top 10s and a 17.2 average finish. These numbers don’t instill confidence in taking him to win the race.

Austin Hill (+800) is 4^th in the standings, but his odds to win this race are more than double Allgaier’s and Almirola’s. And, yet, Hill won this race in 2023, along with five consecutive Top 10 finishes. He was also 4^th in this race last year. Hill’s odds are very appealing for Saturday’s race.

Best The LiUNA! Betting Value

Connor Zilisch (+900) has not raced at Las Vegas yet, in his young NASCAR career. However, the kid has tremendous driving skills that make me think he could do well this weekend. Zilisch won in COTA two weeks ago, which proved that no track is too big for the 18-year-old.

Brandon Jones (+1800) has 16 Las Vegas starts with zero wins, two Top 5s, and 11 Top 10s. He’s scored six Top 10s in his last eight Vegas appearances and was 9^th in this race last year. Jones has a 10.4 average finish at Vegas.

Top The LiUNA! Longshot

Christian Eckes (+3000) has not competed in a Xfinity or Cup Series race at Las Vegas. However, he has raced at this track in the Craftsman Truck Series. In eight Vegas truck starts, Eckes has one win, two Top 5s, six Top 10s and a 10.5 average finish. He also has five Top 10s in his last six Vegas appearances, which includes two 6^th place results in a row.

The LiUNA! Predictions

This race feels like one of the favorites is going to win. Every week so far, one of the Top 3 to 5 betting favorites has won the race. I don’t see that trend stopping anytime soon.

Of the Top 4 odds-on favorites, there’s one driver that appeals to me the most. But let’s keep the suspense going for a bit longer as we eliminate these drivers one-by-one.

Allgaier is the race favorite and has a tremendous resume at Vegas. Unfortunately, he’s never won at this track in 21 starts. However, you can pencil him in for a Top 5 finish.

Almirola has never cracked the Top 10 in a Xfinity Vegas race. In fact, if you combine his six Xfinity appearances with his 21 Vegas appearances for the Cup Series, Almirola only has four Top 10 finishes at this track. That’s not something we can bet on to change this weekend no matter how strong he looked last weekend in Phoenix.

Creed has a 17.2 average finish and just three Top 10 results. He can certainly contend for a Top 10 finish this weekend, but I don’t feel confident in his chances of taking the checkered flag.

The driver I like this weekend is Austin Hill. He has five consecutive Top 10 finishes at Vegas. He was 4^th in this race last year, and won the event in 2023. If you toss out his first two appearances at Vegas, then Hill has a 5.6 average finish at this track.

Between his current odds and past success at Vegas, Hill is just too good to pass up on for Saturday’s race.

Bet: Austin Hill (+800)

The LiUNA! Top 5 Finish

• Justin Allgaier (-240)
• Aric Almirola (-240)
• Sheldon Creed (+130)
• Austin Hill (+130)
• Connor Zilisch (+140)
• Jesse Love (+160)
• Sam Mayer (+160)
• Taylor Gray (+250)

I’m really high on Austin Hill this weekend. However, if you don’t like Hill to win the race then you should definitely consider him to finish in the Top 5. We’re getting plus-money on Hill who won this race in 2023. Additionally, Hill has five consecutive Top 10 finishes at Vegas.

Furthermore, he’s clearly one of the best Xfinity Series drivers this season and already has one win on the year. Not to mention, he’s also one of the odds-on favorites (+600) to win the Xfinity Series Championship.

Bet: Austin Hill (+130)

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Picks This Week

• Race: Ecosave 200
• Race #: 3^rd of the season
• Date: March 14
• Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

The Craftsman Truck Series returns to action this week after taking the last two weeks off. They will get the Vegas party started on Friday, March 14, with the Ecosave 200.

The first two races were highly compelling events. The opening race in Daytona saw Corey Heim get the win after Parker Kligerman was disqualified in a post-race inspection.

Then, in Atlanta, Kyle Busch held off the pack to win another truck race and further cement himself as the GOAT of truck racing.

How will the third race unfold this weekend in Las Vegas?

Ecosave 200 Odds

• Corey Heim (+175)
• Chandler Smith (+450)
• Layne Riggs (+900)
• Ty Majeski (+900)
• Justin Haley (+1000)
• Grant Enfinger (+1100)
• Daniel Hemric (+1100)
• Rajah Caruth (+1100)
• Tyler Ankrum (+1600)
• Ben Rhodes (+3000)

Ecosave 200 Favorites

When it comes to the betting odds for the Ecosave 200, we have two drivers leading the field with another two following closely behind for Friday’s Craftsman Truck race:

Corey Heim (+175) sits 4^th in the driver standings after winning at Daytona, but finishing 23^rd in Atlanta. However, he enters this weekend’s truck race as the clear-cut betting favorite. In two Vegas starts, Heim was 4^th in 2023 and 3^rd in 2024.

Chandler Smith (+450) is behind Heim on the betting boards, but he has had more success at Vegas than Heim. Smith won this race in 2022, which was the last time he competed here for a truck race. He also comes into this race sitting 3^rd in the standings with two Top 6 finishes on the year so far.

Layne Riggs (+900) has failed to crack the Top 10 over the first two weeks this season. Additionally, Riggs has just one truck appearance at Vegas and he finished 22^nd. Of the betting favorites, I would avoid Riggs the most.

Ty Majeski (+900) sits second in the driver standings, just one point behind Grant Enfinger. He was 3^rd in Daytona and 8^th in Atlanta over the first two weeks of the season. At Vegas, Majeski has one Top 5, three Top 10s and a 9.5 average finish in four truck appearances.

The Best Ecosave 200 Betting Value

Grant Enfinger (+1100) enters this race sitting on top of the standings having finished 4^th at Daytona and 10^th in Atlanta. He also led laps in both races. Now, Enfinger turns his attention towards Vegas where he has one win, two Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and a 12.1 average finish in 14 starts.

Rajah Caruth (+1100) is the defending race winner and yet, is listed well below the favorites at the top of the betting boards. Caruth led 38 of the 134 laps last year and was the best driver on that day. Unfortunately, he’s off to a slow start this season with two crashes and a 29.5 average finish. Ouch!

Top Ecosave 200 Longshot

Ben Rhodes (+3000) is my longshot bet for this week’s race. In 13 Vegas starts, he has one win, five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and an 11.1 average finish. That’s a 61.5% Top 10 finishing rate. If you throw out his crash result in 2022, then Rhodes has a 7.0 average finish over the last four Vegas races.

Furthermore, Rhodes currently sits 5^th in the driver standings. He was started on the pole for Daytona and led 22 laps before fading and finishing 20^th. He followed that up with a 7^th in Atlanta.

There’s plenty of value with Rhodes’ Vegas odds this weekend, especially for a driver that has won here before and has two Top 3 finishes in the last four Vegas truck races.

Ecosave 200 Predictions

My Top 5 drivers for the Ecosave 200 are Heim, Smith, Rhodes, Hemrick and Enfinger or Majeski.

I didn’t talk much about Daniel Hemric above, but he’s a driver that’s flying under the radar this weekend. Hemric has a 4.0 average finish in two truck Vegas races. He also has four Top 5s and eight Top 10s in 11 Xfinity Series races at Las Vegas. I think he can crack the Top 5 on Friday.

With that said, I’m leaning towards Heim or Smith to win this race, with Rhodes as my darkhorse. Between the two, I am taking Chandler Smith. Heim was fortunate to win at Daytona as it took a DQ to get the victory. He then finished 23^rd in the next race.

Smith was 6^th in Daytona and 5^th in Atlanta. Additionally, he has won at Vegas before whereas Heim has not. Plus, I like the value that Smith offers compared to Heim’s odds. You are getting nearly 3x more value with Smith who has a better Vegas resume and has been more consistent this season so far.

Bet: Chandler Smith (+450)