NASCAR Picks This Week 2026: Hamlin Leads Brickyard Bets

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NASCAR Picks This Week move to Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the 2026 Brickyard 400, where Denny Hamlin enters as the strongest pre-practice winner selection. Hamlin finished second at North Wilkesboro, leads the Cup Series standings and returns to a track where he finished third last season.

Kyle Larson is the best top-five pick after finishing first and second in the two Indianapolis oval races held during the Next Gen era. Defending winner Bubba Wallace offers the strongest top-10 angle, while Chase Briscoe is the preferred longer-priced contender.

The full race-winner and prop board was not widely available at the time of this update. The picks below are based on track history, current form, recent speed and projected market position. Practice, qualifying and live ScoresAndStats prices should determine the final betting card.

NASCAR Picks This Week

The best NASCAR Picks This Week are Hamlin to win, Larson for a top-five finish, Wallace for a top-10 finish, Briscoe as the sleeper and Ryan Blaney over Todd Gilliland in the In-Season Challenge final.

Odds last checked: July 20, 2026. The complete market had not been widely posted. Prices can change, and every selection should be compared with the latest Brickyard 400 odds before betting.

Hamlin is the main outright selection, but Larson may become the stronger value if the betting market overreacts to Hamlin’s standings lead and second-place finish at North Wilkesboro.

Wallace is better used in placement markets than as the primary outright pick. His 2025 victory proves he can win at Indianapolis, but a top-10 ticket provides more protection against fuel strategy, overtime and changing track position.

Brickyard 400 Race Information

The 2026 Brickyard 400 is scheduled for Sunday, July 26, at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The race begins at 2 p.m. ET and covers 160 laps around the historic 2.5-mile oval.

Practice is scheduled for Friday afternoon, while Cup Series qualifying takes place Saturday. The officially confirmed entry list had not been released when this article was updated.

For official schedule changes, weekend details and final race information, visit the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway Breakdown

Indianapolis is not a standard intermediate oval. Its four relatively flat corners, long straightaways and narrow racing line make track position and clean air more valuable than they are at most high-speed tracks.

Drivers must slow the car aggressively at corner entry without giving away exit speed. A small mistake entering a turn can cost several car lengths because the driver carries that lost momentum down an extremely long straightaway.

Qualifying deserves more weight this week than it did at drafting tracks such as EchoPark. A driver starting near the front can control the opening stage, while a contender buried in traffic may need an aggressive pit strategy before reaching the top 10.

Fuel mileage is another major variable. Wallace needed enough fuel to survive a rain delay and two overtime restarts last season, while several other contenders lost position after being forced to pit late.

What North Wilkesboro Changed

Joey Logano’s dominant North Wilkesboro victory created another legitimate Indianapolis option. Logano led 323 of 450 laps, while Hamlin finished second and Briscoe moved from 30th at the start to third.

Wallace finished sixth and produced another clean race. Blaney placed 11th, while Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell were among the major contenders hurt by the timing of green-flag pit cycles.

The full finishing order and betting recap are available in the updated NASCAR race results hub.

Logano should not be ignored after that performance, but North Wilkesboro and Indianapolis require different strengths. The No. 22 becomes more attractive if practice confirms that Team Penske carried its speed into the Brickyard weekend.

Briscoe received the most meaningful upgrade. He already owned a strong Indianapolis qualifying profile, and his third-place recovery provided more evidence that Joe Gibbs Racing can give him a competitive car.

Best NASCAR Bets This Week

The best NASCAR bets this week should not all depend on the same race outcome. Hamlin is the preferred outright, but Larson, Wallace and Blaney provide ways to build a card without requiring Hamlin to dominate all 400 miles.

• Best Outright Pick: Denny Hamlin to win.
• Best Top-Five Pick: Kyle Larson.
• Best Top-10 Pick: Bubba Wallace.
• Best Sleeper: Chase Briscoe.
• Best Matchup: Ryan Blaney over Todd Gilliland.
• Best Manufacturer: Toyota.

Do not force all six positions. The strongest pre-practice selections are Hamlin, Larson and Wallace. Blaney becomes valuable only if the In-Season Challenge price remains reasonable, while Briscoe requires competitive practice and qualifying speed.

NASCAR Winner Pick This Week

Denny Hamlin to Win the Brickyard 400

Hamlin is the best NASCAR winner pick this week because he combines current form, championship-level speed and an Indianapolis record that is better than his lack of a Brickyard victory suggests.

He finished third in the 2025 Brickyard 400 after beginning the race from the rear in a backup car. Hamlin also finished second at North Wilkesboro and enters Indianapolis as the Cup Series points leader.

The No. 11 team should be particularly strong during green-flag pit cycles. Hamlin has the braking control and flat-track speed needed at Indianapolis, while Joe Gibbs Racing gives him one of the deepest organizational groups in the field.

The primary risk is price. Hamlin should not be backed at any number simply because he is the early favorite. Larson offers better recent Indianapolis finishes, and Reddick has also produced elite Next Gen speed at the track.

A poor qualifying result would also reduce Hamlin’s value. Starting deep in the field exposes him to traffic, alternative pit strategies and incidents before the No. 11 can reach clean air.

NASCAR Winner Pick: Denny Hamlin to win the 2026 Brickyard 400.

Best NASCAR Top-Five Pick

Kyle Larson Top Five

Larson is the strongest top-five selection because he has finished inside the top two in both Indianapolis oval races held with the Next Gen car.

He won the 2024 Brickyard 400 and finished second to Wallace in 2025. Larson led 19 laps last season and remained one of the primary contenders before the race moved into overtime.

Hendrick Motorsports should give Larson enough speed to compete near the front even if he does not have the best car. His car control also helps when a tight balance or changing track position forces him away from the preferred line.

The top-five market is better than the outright if Larson’s course history produces an inflated winner price. He can lose the final restart or strategy sequence and still cash a placement ticket.

Top-Five Pick: Kyle Larson to finish in the top five.

Best NASCAR Top-10 Pick

Bubba Wallace Top 10

Wallace is the best top-10 pick after proving he can control the race under pressure at Indianapolis. He won the 2025 Brickyard 400 after managing fuel, rain and two overtime restarts.

The No. 23 Toyota also enters with steady form. Wallace finished sixth at North Wilkesboro and has continued to produce competitive runs without needing to lead the most laps.

A repeat victory requires several variables to break correctly. A top-10 ticket is more forgiving and still benefits from Wallace’s track history, 23XI Racing speed and improved race execution.

The bet becomes less attractive if the market charges a heavily negative price. Wallace is a reliable placement candidate, but Indianapolis still creates significant strategy and overtime risk.

Top-10 Pick: Bubba Wallace to finish in the top 10.

NASCAR Sleeper Pick

Chase Briscoe

Briscoe is the best NASCAR sleeper pick this week. He won the Indianapolis pole in 2025 and arrives after finishing third at North Wilkesboro.

Qualifying speed is especially valuable at Indianapolis. Briscoe has already shown that his Joe Gibbs Racing team can prepare a fast car for one lap, allowing him to begin the race with clean air and control over pit strategy.

His recent Chicagoland victory and North Wilkesboro recovery strengthen the case that Briscoe can convert speed into results. He also receives the same organizational information as Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs.

The risk is that his outright price may shrink after qualifying. Briscoe is a sleeper only when the return remains meaningfully larger than the primary Hamlin, Larson and Reddick tier.

Best Sleeper Bet: Chase Briscoe to win with a smaller position, or use him in top-five and top-10 markets.

Best NASCAR Matchup Pick

Ryan Blaney Over Todd Gilliland

Blaney over Gilliland is the preferred matchup because Blaney has the stronger season profile, more reliable organizational support and a higher Indianapolis ceiling.

Gilliland earned his place in the In-Season Challenge final by finishing eighth at North Wilkesboro. Blaney advanced with an 11th-place finish, but one race does not erase the larger difference between the two teams.

Team Penske has a strong Indianapolis history and should give Blaney the speed required to run near the top 10. Gilliland can still win the matchup through strategy, attrition or one Blaney mistake, which means the price remains important.

A heavily inflated favorite price should be avoided. The challenge is decided only by which driver finishes ahead, and Gilliland has already eliminated several higher-seeded opponents.

Best Matchup Pick: Ryan Blaney over Todd Gilliland.

NASCAR Manufacturer Pick

Toyota to Win

Toyota is the preferred manufacturer because Hamlin leads the betting card and Wallace returns as the defending winner. Reddick, Briscoe, Bell and Gibbs provide additional winning paths.

That depth matters in a manufacturer market. Toyota does not need every contender to execute perfectly as long as one car remains near the front after the final pit cycle.

Chevrolet remains the primary threat through Larson, Chase Elliott and William Byron. Ford has momentum after Logano’s North Wilkesboro win and also brings Blaney, Briscoe’s former teammate Brad Keselowski and Logano into the discussion.

The manufacturer price should be compared with the outright board. Toyota becomes less appealing if the market charges an excessive premium for its depth.

Manufacturer Pick: Toyota to win the Brickyard 400.

NASCAR In-Season Challenge Final

Ryan Blaney and Todd Gilliland will compete for the $1 million NASCAR In-Season Challenge prize at Indianapolis. The tournament winner is whichever finalist finishes higher in the Brickyard 400.

Neither driver needs to win the race. That distinction makes consistency, pit-road execution and incident avoidance more important than outright winning upside.

Gilliland is a legitimate threat because one incident can erase Blaney’s equipment advantage. Still, Blaney is the correct selection if the market offers a playable favorite price.

In-Season Challenge Pick: Ryan Blaney defeats Todd Gilliland.

NASCAR Drivers to Fade

Tyler Reddick at a Short Outright Price

Reddick is not a complete fade because his Indianapolis speed is real. He started from the pole and led 40 laps in 2024 before finishing second.

The concern is price and recent volatility. Reddick finished 30th at North Wilkesboro and has experienced enough mechanical and strategic problems to make a Hamlin-level price difficult to justify.

Reddick becomes more attractive if the market moves him behind Larson and Blaney or if Friday practice confirms that the No. 45 has the strongest long-run car.

Chase Elliott at a Favorite-Level Price

Elliott remains a capable top-10 driver, but his recent Indianapolis results do not justify pricing him alongside Larson and Hamlin. He finished 13th in the 2025 Brickyard 400 and 17th at North Wilkesboro.

A placement bet may still work after qualifying. The outright becomes attractive only if the market provides a clear discount from the leading contenders.

Todd Gilliland in the Outright Market

Gilliland has been excellent in the In-Season Challenge, but winning the Brickyard 400 requires a much higher ceiling than defeating one assigned opponent.

His best market is the challenge matchup or a deeper placement prop. The outright should be treated as a small speculative play rather than a core selection.

Practice and Qualifying Watch

Friday practice and Saturday qualifying can materially change the final NASCAR card. Indianapolis rewards clean air, making starting position more important than at tracks with several usable grooves.

Hamlin remains the main pick if he qualifies near the front and shows competitive traffic speed. Larson becomes the preferred outright alternative if the No. 5 leads the session and the market still offers a similar price.

Briscoe requires qualifying speed. His sleeper case weakens if the No. 19 begins deep in the field without showing enough long-run pace to recover through traffic.

Wallace does not need to win the pole for the top-10 selection to remain playable. A starting position inside the top 15, combined with stable practice speed, would support the placement bet.

• Upgrade Hamlin if the No. 11 qualifies inside the first three rows.
• Upgrade Larson if he leads the overall speed rankings.
• Keep Wallace in top-10 markets with a competitive top-15 starting position.
• Downgrade Briscoe if his qualifying advantage disappears.
• Recheck Reddick if the No. 45 clearly leads the Toyota group.
• Monitor Logano as a late top-10 addition after his North Wilkesboro win.

Final NASCAR Betting Card

The final pre-practice betting card begins with Hamlin to win and Larson to finish in the top five. Wallace is the preferred top-10 selection, while Briscoe supplies the longshot upside.

Blaney over Gilliland is the In-Season Challenge pick, and Toyota is the manufacturer selection. Final odds should be added only after the live ScoresAndStats market is confirmed.

Best Bet: Denny Hamlin to win the Brickyard 400, provided his final price remains competitive with Larson and Reddick.

Best Placement Bet: Bubba Wallace to finish in the top 10.

Best Matchup Bet: Ryan Blaney over Todd Gilliland in the In-Season Challenge final.

Additional previews, weekly results and race analysis are available through the latest ScoresAndStats NASCAR coverage. Bettors unfamiliar with placement and matchup markets can also review the Expert Betting Guide.

NASCAR Picks This Week FAQs