NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge

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NASCAR leaves behind the road courses of Chicago and Sonoma to head east and tackle “The Monster Mile” as both the Cup Series and Xfinity Series compete at Dover Motor Speedway.

This iconic venue has been part of the NASCAR calendar since 1969. Although it doesn’t have two races per season anymore, it’s still a proud tradition within the sport.

The Craftsman Truck Series will not race again this weekend. The Trucks don’t return to action until July 25.

The Xfinity Series will begin this week’s racing action with the BetRivers 200 at 4:30pm ET on Saturday, July 19. This event can be seen in its entirety on The CW.

The Cup Series will compete at Dover Motor Speedway on Sunday, July 20, starting at 2pm ET. The AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 can be seen in its entirety on TNT Sports and streamed live on MAX.

Sunday’s Cup race also marks the fourth week of the In-Season Challenge. This mid-season tournament is down to the final four drivers and has definitely provided an extra layer of drama to each race so far.   

If you miss any of the Dover Races, we’ve got you covered with our weekly NASCAR results. So, without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week. Feel free to use any of these for your NASCAR bets this weekend.

NASCAR Picks Today

NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week

• Race: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400
• Race #: 21^st of the season
• Date: July 20
• Where: Dover Motor Speedway

Over the last two weeks, Shane van Gisbergen has dominated the Cup Series with two consecutive wins on the road courses of Chicago and Sonoma. He’s now won three of the previous five races, but is considered a longshot this weekend.

Instead, we’re back to our normal pack of pre-race favorites with Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott leading the field.

Despite a few speed bumps over the last month, Kyle Larson remains the odds-on favorite to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. However, this field is wide open as we inch closer to the Playoffs.  

Will Hamlin win a second straight Dover race? Can Toyota win a third consecutive Dover race? Which drivers will advance to the championship round of the tournament?

Top Chevrolet Driver at Dover

• Kyle Larson (+200)
• William Byron (+300)
• Chase Elliott (+400)
• Ross Chastain (+550)
• Alex Bowman (+850)
• Kyle Busch (+1000)
• Carson Hocevar (+1200)

Ross Chastain will have better luck in the Xfinity Series race rather than this Cup race. In 10 DMS starts, Chastain has just two Top 10s and a 21.6 average finish.

I’m also fading William Byron this weekend. At best, he’s a Top 10 driver on Sunday. However, he only has four Top 10s in 10 DMS starts.

Carson Hocevar is fun to watch, but he hasn’t been a factor at Dover in either Series. His lone start last year resulted in a 22^nd finish.

Kyle Busch has been a stellar driver at Dover, but that was a while ago. Although he has three wins at this track, Busch has struggled to win a race the last few seasons. He’s not going to outperform the trio of Hendrick drivers below.

Where I’m fading Byron, I’m really liking his three teammates. I think that Alex Bowman is the sleeper of the bunch. Bowman won at Dover a few years ago.

Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson both have Dover wins, as well. Additionally, they both sit at the top of the field for average finish at DMS. With that said, I am giving the very slight edge to Larson. I think he rebounds after a subpar last month and finishes strong at Dover.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+200)

Top Ford Driver at Dover

• Ryan Blaney (-130)
• Brad Keselowski (+600)
• Chris Buescher (+600)
• Joey Logano (+700)
• Josh Berry (+1000)
• Ryan Preece (+1000)

I am fading most of the Fords this weekend. I don’t see any of them really contending for the checkered flag. Let’s start with the favorite, Ryan Blaney. He has just four Top 10s in 14 DMS starts and has only led laps in three races. Those are some poor starts for a driver at -130 odds. He’s not worth the risk.

Ryan Preece has eight Dover starts and has never cracked the Top 10. His 24.4 average finish is abysmal. Chris Buescher has just two Top 10s and a 19.9 average finish in 14 DMS starts. Once again, more pathetic results.

Brad Keselowski has had a solid run at Dover in his career. Unfortunately, he’s had a terrible season to date and sits 27^th in the driver standings with just two Top 5s on the season.

Josh Berry is the sleeper of this prop bet. In the Xfinity Series, he leads the field with a 1.7 average finish and a victory. He’s finished 1^st or 2^nd in all three races on that circuit. In the Cup Series, he has just one Top 10 in three starts.

Almost by default, I am going with Joey Logano. The #22 car has five Top 5s and 15 Top 10s in 28 DMS starts. A 14.5 average finish is just 1 behind Keselowski. And, yet, Logano has won a race this year and a championship last year, whereas Keselowski hasn’t won much in the last few years.

At best, a Ford driver barely cracks the Top 5. So, I can see Logano doing that on Sunday.

Bet: Joey Logano (+700)

Top Toyota Driver at Dover

• Denny Hamlin (-125)
• Christopher Bell (+475)
• Tyler Reddick (+575)
• Chase Briscoe (+575)
• Ty Gibbs (+900)
• Bubba Wallace (+2200)

In 10 starts, Bubba Wallace has zero Top 5s or Top 10s, and sports a 21.4 average finish. You can count him out of this prop bet. Chase Briscoe has been even worse, as he has a 24.3 average finish in four DMS starts with no Top 10s.

Christopher Bell could fly under the radar this weekend as he hasn’t been great at Dover. In six DMS starts, he has one Top 5, two Top 10s, and a 19.0 average finish.

The battle between Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs will be more than just this prop bet. These two are going head-to-head in the In-Season Challenge to get to the final round. I give the slight edge to Reddick as I like how he’s performed this season more so than Gibbs. Both men have fared well in the last few years at Dover, so there’s no clear advantage there.

With that said, you have to go with Denny Hamlin to win this prop bet. Hamlin has two wins, eight Top 5s, 16 Top 10s and a 15.6 average finish in 34 DMS starts. He’s the defending race winner and is poised for a strong result in Dover this weekend.

Bet: Denny Hamlin (-125)

NASCAR Craftsman Xfinity Series Picks This Week

• Race: BetRivers 200
• Race #: 20^th of the season
• Date: July 19
• Where: Dover Motor Speedway

Over the last two weeks, Shane van Gisbergen and Conno Zilisch have battled for the checkered flags on the road courses of Chicago and Sonoma. SVG won in Chicago by a few seconds over Zilisch but the youngster edged out the veteran New Zealander by winning in Sonoma last weekend.

This week, like with the Cup Series, we return to our normal pack of favorites like Justin Allgaier. However, we will also see Aric Almirola return to the field and Ross Chastain come down from the Cup Series.

While Allgaier still leads the field in the Xfinity Series Championship odds, Zilisch and Austin Hill are right on his rear bumper.  In fact, Jesse Love and Same Mayer are all within striking distance, as well.

Ryan Truex is returning to the Xfinity Series this weekend to try and defend his title. Can he win a third straight Dover race? Will Allgaier get back into the win column? Will we see another surprise winner at Dover?

BetRivers 200 Odds

• Justin Allgaier (+250)
• Ross Chastain (+350)
• Aric Almirola (+400)
• Connor Zilisch (+800)
• Sheldon Creed (+1200)
• Austin Hill (+1200)
• Jesse Love (+1200)
• Sam Mayer (+1200)
• Carson Kvapil (+1600)
• Brandon Jones (+1800)
• Sammy Smith (+1800)
• Ryan Truex (+2800)
• Taylor Gray (+3500)
• Nicholas Sanchez (+3500)
• Christian Eckes (+4000)

BetRivers 200 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the BetRivers 200 on Saturday:

Justin Allgaier (+250) is the odds-on favorite to win this race. He has two Dover wins since 2018, and nine Top 7s in the last 11 DMS races. Over that span, Allgaier has eight Top 3 finishes. That’s pretty incredible if you ask me.

Ross Chastain (+350) hasn’t had much success in the Cup Series or Xfinity Series when it comes to racing at Dover. I faded him for the Cup race, and I’m doing the same for the Xfinity race as well. Chastain has just two Top 10s in 14 DMS starts. That’s not going to get the job done this weekend.

Aric Almirola (+400) has just one Top 10 in four DMS starts, with a 12.0 average finish. Now, Almirola has raced well this season, which could bump up his success on Saturday. But considering his best result is just 9^th place, I don’t see Almirola winning this race.

BetRivers 200 Betting Value

The following Xfinity Series drivers offer betting value for Saturday’s race based on their current odds, overall season to date, and previous success at this track:

Sheldon Creed (+1200) sits 8^th in the driver standings, but has fared well at Dover in his career. With three DMS starts, Creed has one Top 5, two Top 10s, a 7.7 average finish and has never come in worse than 11^th.

Austin Hill (+1200) is third in the driver standings and has an 11.0 average finish at Dover. He’s finished in the Top 15 for all three starts with a 4^th in 2023, as his best result.

Sam Mayer (+1200) sits second in the standings, and is my second favorite driver this weekend. Mayer has three Top 9 finishes at Dover and a 5.7 average finish. He was third in this race last year.

BetRivers 200 Longshot

Ryan Truex (+2800) has been the king of Dover in the Xfinity Series over the last few years. Truex has won two Dover races in a row, and has five Top 10s in eight DMS start which is a 62.5% Top 10 finishing rate.

Furthermore, Truex has an 8.1 average finish for his career at Dover and has never finished worse than 18^th. Truex was fortunate to lead the final lap last year to win the race. But the year before, he dominated by leading 124 laps. Truex finished runner up in 2012, as well.

I don’t see a better longshot on the board than Truex this weekend. Yet, I feel more comfortable with his Top 5 odds than winning the race outright. I will discuss why in more detail below.

BetRivers 200 Predictions

Dover could produce any number of outcomes since we’re back to racing on oval tracks and not road courses. With that said, my Top 5 drivers this weekend are Allgaier, Mayer, Truex, Hill and Almirola or Creed.

I think this race will come down to Truex’s luck versus Allgaier and Mayer’s strong seasons. And, when you look at it in this light, you have to go with Allgaier to win.

His body of work at Dover has been the best among any Xfinity Series driver. I expect the reigning Xfinity Series champ to get back into the winner’s circle on Saturday.

Bet: Justin Allgaier (+250)

BetRivers 200 Top 5 Finish

• Justin Allgaier (-550)
• Ross Chastain (-185)
• Aric Almirola (-135)
• Connor Zilisch (+130)
• Sheldon Creed (+200)
• Austin Hill (+200)
• Jesse Love (+200)
• Sam Mayer (+200)
• Carson Kvapil (+250)
• Brandon Jones (+275)
• Sammy Smith (+275)
• Ryan Truex (+350)

I couldn’t in good faith take Truex to win the race for a third straight year. However, I can take him to crack the Top 5. Not only has he won two Dover races in a row, but Truex has a 4.0 average finish over his last three Dover races.

Furthermore, he has a 5.7 average finish over his last four and a 6.5 average finish over his last six DMS starts.

Bet: Ryan Truex (+350)