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NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge
Handicapping Membership
NASCAR returns to the “Windy City” for its third installment of races on the Chicago Street Course. This exciting road race will literally take place on the streets of downtown Chicago.
However, the Craftsman Truck Series will not participate in this weekend’s festivities, as it’s just for the Xfinity Series and Cup Series. The Trucks will be off for another few weeks.
The Xfinity Series will begin this week’s racing action with The Loop 110 at 4:30pm ET on Saturday, July 5. This event can be seen in its entirety on The CW.
The Cup Series will hit the streets of Chicago on Sunday, July 6, starting at 2pm ET. The Grant Park 165 can be seen in its entirety on TNT Sports and streamed live on MAX.
Sunday’s Cup race also marks the second week of the In-Season Challenge. Last weekend saw the majority of tournament favorites crash in Atlanta and lose their opening round matchups.
If you miss any of these Chicago Street Races, we’ve got you covered with our weekly NASCAR results. So, without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week. Feel free to use any of these for your NASCAR bets this weekend.
NASCAR Picks Today
| NASCAR Bets | Favorites | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Top Chevrolet Driver at Chicago | Shane van Gisbergen (-125) | Chase Elliott (+650) |
| Top Ford Driver at Chicago | Chris Buescher (+200) | Chris Buescher (+200) |
| Top Toyota Driver at Chicago | Christopher Bell (+130) | Ty Gibbs (+275) |
| The Loop 110 Winner | Shane van Gisbergen (-125) | Shane van Gisbergen (-125) |
| The Loop 110 Top 5 | Shane van Gisbergen (-1600) | Allgaier (+200) or Hill (+220) |
NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week
- Race: The Grant Park 165
- Race #: 19th of the season
- Date: July 6
- Where: Chicago Street Course
Last weekend, Chase Elliott took the checkered flag in the Quaker State 400. The local kid survived a number of crashes that took out most of the top drivers in the Cup Series. The race turned the In-Season Challenge on its head as nearly all of the top ranked rivers were eliminated in upset fashion.
This week, we head to Chicago where Shane van Gisbergen is the overwhelming favorite to win a second straight road race. He won in Mexico City three races ago.
Despite a few speed bumps, Kyle Larson remains the odds-on favorite to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. However, drivers like Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin are all on his bumper.
Will anyone upstage van Gisbergen to win this road race? Which drivers will advance to round three of the tournament? How does your Bracket Challenge look?
Top Chevrolet Driver at Chicago
- Shane van Gisbergen (-125)
- Kyle Larson (+600)
- Chase Elliott (+850)
- Alex Bowman (+1000)
- William Byron (+1200)
- Michael McDowell (+1200)
- AJ Allmendinger (+1800)
The Chevys are stacked when it comes to road racing. Any of these drivers can win this weekend. However, as they say in The Highlander, “there can be only one.” So, let’s start dwindling down this field.
AJ Allmendinger is a talented road driver, but he’s struggled at Chicago in the first two races with a 27.5 average finish. Sure, he might turn things around, but I’m not willing to bet on it.
Kyle Larson has a 21.5 average finish at Chicago due to crashing out of the race last year. As talented as he is, I do believe his teammates will edge him out this weekend. Larson struggled in the two road races this year so far.
Speaking of Larson’s teammates, both Alex Bowman and William Byron have performed well in this Chicago Street Race. Between the two, I like Bowman a little better as he won this event last year and has performed well in both road races this year so far.
With that said, I believe this prop bet and the checkered flag could come down to Shan van Gisbergen, Chase Elliott and Michael McDowell.
Yes, this is the first time that I’ve really talked up McDowell, but he has the best average finish among full-time Cup Series drivers at 6.0. McDowell finished 7th in 2023, and 5th last year.
Elliott has a 12.0 average finish at Chicago, but is a more successful road course driver with better finish in road races this year than McDowell.
SVG won at Mexico a few weeks ago and has two victories at Chicago in the four previous NASCAR events there, spanning both the Cup Series and Xfinity Series.
I think you could make a case for all three drivers. If you want to play it safe, then take van Gisbergen. For me, I’m rolling with Elliott who made me a lot of money last weekend by winning in Atlanta and covering a number of prop bets.
Bet: Chase Elliott (+650)
Top Ford Driver at Chicago
- Chris Buescher (+200)
- Austin Cindric (+475)
- Ryan Blaney (+650)
- Joey Logano (+800)
- Cole Custer (+800)
- Ryan Preece (+800)
The Ford drivers aren’t expected to perform as well collectively, as Chevy or Toyota. Yet, they still have one driver that could contend for a high finish in the race, and possibly a checkered flag.
That driver is not Ryan Preece who has a 24.5 average finish in two Cup races at Chicago. I would also skip Ryan Blaney who has a 21.5 average finish. His best result was 10th last year. And, while that’s a respectable finish, it won’t be high enough to be the best Ford driver.
Joey Logano is a better option than Blaney, as he has a 15.5 average finish with an 8th as his top result. Unfortunately, 8th won’t be high enough this weekend to take the Top Ford spot. Yet, he does make for a solid longshot option for The Grant Park 165 especially his Top 10 odds.
I’ve debated on which driver to give the edge to between Austin Cindric and Cole Custer. Cindric actually sits high among the field with a 10.5 average finish. Custer has yet to compete in a Cup Chicago Race.
However, Custer has two Xfinity starts and a 9.5 average finish. He won the 2023 Xfinity Chicago race. He was also 8th at Mexico City three races ago. Custer is a sneaky bet this weekend. But the safe bet is with the next driver.
Chris Buescher is the odds-on favorite to finish as the Top Ford. He has a 15.0 average finish as he was 10th in 2023, and 20th last year. Buescher was 7th at COTA and 10th in Mexico City, the two previous road races this season. His consistency gives me more confidence than any other Ford driver.
Bet: Chris Buescher (+200)
Top Toyota Driver at Chicago
- Christopher Bell (+130)
- Tyler Reddick (+275)
- Ty Gibbs (+275)
- Chase Briscoe (+1000)
- Denny Hamlin (+1200)
- Bubba Wallace (+3500)
In two Chicago races, Bubba Wallace has a 22.0 average finish. He’s not known for being a top-tier road course driver and I don’t see that changing this weekend.
Denny Hamlin is never really this big of a longshot, but he’s struggled in Chicago with a 20.5 average finish. This isn’t the road race where Hamlin has had success at in the past. I would skip the #11 car this weekend, as well.
Despite Wallace’s and Hamlin’s struggles at this course, Chase Briscoe has been worse. In two appearances, he has a 26.0 average finish. The Pocono winner is avoidable this weekend.
Christopher Bell is the favorite, but he’s been dreadful in Chicago. In fact, Bell has been a notch worse than Briscoe as the #20 car is sporting a 27.5 average finish.
I see this battle coming down to Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs. I am giving the latter a slight edge in this matchup. Reddick has a 15.0 average finish and scored a runner up result last year. However, Gibbs is tied with McDowell for the best average finish in the field (6.0). He was 3rd last year and 9th in 2023.
I’m taking Gibbs to edge our Reddick this weekend. However, I don’t think you could go wrong with either driver as they’re both solid options for Sunday’s race and you can make a case for either one to finish as the Top Ford.
Bet: Ty Gibbs (+275)
NASCAR Craftsman Xfinity Series Picks This Week
- Race: The Loop 110
- Race #: 18th of the season
- Date: July 5
- Where: Chicago Street Course
The Xfinity Series shift gears from the speedway in Atlanta to the roads of Chicago. And, that means the usual cast of characters will not be the race favorites like Austin Hill, Jesse Love, or even Justin Allgaier. Instead, we’ll see road specialists climb to the top of the betting boards.
Just like with the Cup Series, Shane van Gisbergen is the odds-on favorite to win the Xfinity Series Chicago Street Race, as well. However, unlike in the Cup race, the odds are closer in this Xfinity event due to Connor Zilisch.
With that said, it’s a steep drop from SVG and Zilisch to the next batch of drivers. However, it’s the opposite when looking at the odds for winning the Xfinity Series Championship. Allgaier, Zilisch, Hill, Love and Mayer are all within striking distance of each other.
SVG won this race last year. Can he make it two in a row? Will Zilisch prove that he’s a prodigy of road races as well? Or will we see another shocking win like last weekend?
The Loop 110 Odds
- Shane van Gisbergen (-125)
- Connor Zilisch (+125)
- Sam Mayer (+1500)
- Jack Perkins (+1500)
- Justin Allgaier (+1800)
- Taylor Gray (+2000)
- Austin Hill (+2000)
- Carson Kvapil (+4000)
- Sheldon Creed (+4500)
- Jesse Love (+4500)
- Nicholas Sanchez (+4500)
- Sammy Smith (+4500)
- Christian Eckes (+5000)
- Brandon Jones (+25000)
The Loop 110 Favorites
The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win The Loop 110 on Saturday:
Shane van Gisbergen (-125) is pulling double duty this weekend as he competes in both Chicago Street Races. He won this event last year, and also won the 2023 Cup Series race as well. SVG is arguably the top road course driver in all of NASCAR, so it makes sense that he’s the favorite this weekend for both races.
Connor Zilisch (+125) will make his first appearance at Chicago and there’s a lot of buzz over the kid’s potential to upstage SVG on Saturday. Zilisch won at COTA this spring and finished 5th in Mexico City. That’s two strong results for the only road races up to this point.
Furthermore, he has five consecutive Top 5 finishes on the year including a victory at Pocono two weeks agon and two runner up finishes prior to that.
The Loop 110 Betting Value
The following Xfinity Series drivers offer betting value for Saturday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at this track:
Justin Allgaier (+1800) offers great value this weekend as he sports a 6.0 average finish in Chicago. He finished 9th last year in this event and 3rd in the 2023 race. He was runner up at COTA in the spring to his teammate Zilisch. Car problems knocked him out of Mexico City early.
Austin Hill (+2000) is being overlooked this weekend because he’s often thought of as just a speedway driver. Yet, Hill also has a 6.0 average finish at Chicago like Allgaier. Furthermore, he finished 4th at COTA in the spring and 3rd at Mexico City. Those are strong results for a driver not really known for his road racing skills.
The Loop 110 Longshot
Christian Eckes (+5000) is my longshot of choice this weekend. This will be his first Chicago road race for Xfinity as he was in the Truck Series the last few years.
However, Eckes has performed well in road races this year so far. He finished 5th at COTA and 4th at Mexico City. His Top 5 odds for Chicago are +475, and those look very appealing as a longshot bet as well.
The Loop 110 Predictions
I really want to go with Zilisch to win this race. I think the kid is a phenom and has already showed that he can win any type of race. With that said, I am going to give the edge to SVG for this event.
I think van Gisbergen could win both NASCAR races at Chicago this weekend, but I’m taking him to win the Xfinity Loop 110 and come up short in the Cup’s Grant Park 165. If you want to go with Zilisch for better value, then I won’t cast stones as my emotions are picking him, but my wallet is going with SVG.
Bet: Shane van Gisbergen (-125)
The Loop 110 Top 5 Finish
- Shane van Gisbergen (-1600)
- Connor Zilisch (-900)
- Sam Mayer (+150)
- Jack Perkins (+150)
- Justin Allgaier (+200)
- Taylor Gray (+220)
- Austin Hill (+220)
- Carson Kvapil (+400)
- Sheldon Creed (+425)
Justin Allgaier (+200) is my pick for the best Top 5 finish. Actually, I also like Hill just as much. So, you can go with either driver. They both have a 6.0 average finish at Chicago. They also both finished in the Top 5 at COTA in the spring. Allgaier was knocked out of Mexico City, but Hill had a Top 5 finish there as well.
Hill offers slightly better value at +220, but either driver will make a solid Top 5 bet this weekend.
Bet: Justin Allgaier (+200) or Austin Hill (+220)
