Our Week 4 college football parlay is four underdogs in this week’s games between two ranked teams: Tennessee +4, Texas A&M +8.5, USC +3 and Iowa +5.5. Each leg is the bet our own prediction for that game makes, and a $100 ticket returns $1,358.45 if all four cover.
The four legs and the prices
Every price below is DraftKings, as shown on ESPN’s college football scoreboard when we read it at 06:11 UTC on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Each game page gives a range for its bet, and every line here is still inside it. Lines move, so check yours against the page before you bet.
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| Leg | Game (Saturday, Sept. 26) | Price now | The page bets down to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee +4 | #1 Texas at #14 Tennessee, noon ET | -110 | Tennessee -5 |
| Texas A&M +8.5 | #23 Texas A&M at #10 LSU, 7:30 p.m. ET | -110 | Texas A&M +5 |
| USC +3 | #20 Oregon at #12 USC, 7:30 p.m. ET | -105 | USC -3 |
| Iowa +5.5 | #17 Iowa at #18 Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET | -110 | Iowa +4.5 |
Rankings are the ones ESPN carried on the same scoreboard. The other game this week between two ranked teams, Ole Miss at Florida, is not in the parlay, because our page on it makes no bet at Florida -3.5.
All four pages use one method. Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, in 2025 and 2026. A side becomes a bet when that number and the spread are at least 3 points apart.
Leg 1: Tennessee +4 against Texas
The call on our Texas at Tennessee prediction: “Our number is Tennessee by 8.1. The bet is Tennessee +4.5.” The page wrote that with Texas at -4.5. The line is now Texas -4, and the page keeps the bet at any price through Tennessee -5, so Tennessee +4 is still inside it.
Leg 2: Texas A&M +8.5 at LSU
The call on our Texas A&M at LSU prediction: “Our number is LSU by 1.6. The bet is Texas A&M +8.5.” That is a gap of 6.9 points. The page keeps the bet down to Texas A&M +5 and passes at +4.5, and the line has not moved from 8.5.
Leg 3: USC +3 against Oregon
The call on our Oregon at USC prediction: “USC is getting 3 points at home, and our number has USC winning by 6. Take USC +3.” That puts 9 points between the market and the number. USC stays a bet down to a 3-point favorite, and the price is USC +3 at -105.
Leg 4: Iowa +5.5 at Michigan
The call on our Iowa at Michigan prediction: “Our number has Michigan by 1.4. At +5.5, take Iowa.” The gap is 4.1 points. At Iowa +4.5 the bet stands and at +4 it is a pass, so this leg has the least room of the four: a move of 1.5 points toward Iowa ends it.
What the ticket pays
Convert each price to decimal odds and multiply. A -110 leg is 1.9091 and a -105 leg is 1.9524, so this parlay is 1.9091 x 1.9091 x 1.9524 x 1.9091, or 13.58. A $100 ticket returns $1,358.45: the $100 stake and $1,258.45 of profit. In American odds, that is about +1258.
The price also tells you how hard it is to hit. At 13.58, the parlay’s break-even rate is 7.4%, roughly one ticket in 13.6. A single -110 bet needs to win 52.4% of the time to break even. That gap is the cost of the bigger payout, and it is why a parlay belongs in a small share of a bankroll.
How to build your own college football parlay
A parlay loses if any one leg loses. What happens when a leg pushes is a house rule that each sportsbook sets, so read it before you bet.
- Keep legs independent. Results in different games do not depend on each other. A side and a total from the same game can, so this card uses four different games.
- Shop the number. Half a point on a spread changes which results win. Compare NCAAF odds across the sports betting sites we review.
- Count the legs. Each -110 leg you add roughly doubles the payout and roughly halves the chance of cashing. Two legs pay $364.46 back on $100; this four-leg card pays $1,358.45.
For the rest of this week’s calls, see our college football picks, and see how many of the best handicappers are on each side. The title race is in our college football championship odds, and our NFL parlay of the week does the same job for Sunday.