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Week 5 of the NFL regular season featured a thrilling slate of action as we had a few games go down to the wire. In fact, we even saw two games go into overtime. Additionally, we had a few surprise upsets; none bigger than the Arizona Cardinals heading into the Bay Area to upset the San Francisco 49ers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars held on to beat the Indianapolis Colts by a field goal. The Dallas Cowboys did the same to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football, while the Baltimore Ravens edged out the Cincinnati Bengals in Overtime, as did the Atlanta Falcons over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.
Last week, we hit on the Washington Commanders, Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings. Unfortunately, our 49ers pick failed us. That’s a third consecutive week of going 3-1 on our NFL Parlay Card.
This week, we’re very confident in the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons to soar high in their Week 6 matchups. We also like the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans to dispatch of their inferior opponents. In fact, all four of our picks are playing against teams that rank among the worst in the league.
Let’s dive deeper into our NFL parlay picks for Week 6 and see what our free NFL parlay card is paying out this week.
NFL Picks and Parlays
Monitor the NFL odds throughout the week. As the odds change, the parlay payouts will change as well.
| Team | Odds | Payout Per Leg | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | -450 | NA | 5/5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -230 | $79.35 | 4.5/5 |
| Chicago Bears | -130 | $217.31 | 4/5 |
| Houston Texans | -300 | $323.08 | 4/5 |
NFL Parlay Picks
Our weekly NFL parlay picks are based on order of confidence. Additionally, you can choose any combination of these NFL parlay picks for your own parlay card or use them all for the total payout listed above.
NFL Parlay Pick 1: Browns (+350) vs. Eagles (-450)
Are the Cleveland Browns the worse team in the NFL? After last weekend, it’s hard to argue against it. The Browns have dropped three of their last four games with two of those defeats coming against the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants. Their only victory was against the equally bad Jacksonville Jaguars.
Yet, it feels like the Browns have been surpassed by the Jaguars after Week 5 of the season. In fact, it’s so bad in Cleveland right now that the media and fans are calling for Deshaun Watson to be benched after the team lost 34 to 13 against the Washington Commanders.
Watson is only averaging 170.4 passing yards per game, but he’s been sacked 26 times and has thrown three picks. And, that’s just the tip of the iceberg for how bad this offense is. Cleveland is near the bottom of the league in most major offensive categories.
They’re 30th in points per game (15.8), dead last in total yards per game (239.4), 28th in TDs per game (1.6), 27th in rushing yards per game (96.6), 30th in passing yards per game (142.8), and allowing the most sacks per game at a 12.81% QB sack rate.
Basically, the Browns can’t throw the ball or run the ball. And, their vaunted defense from last season looks terrible too. They’re giving up 24.2 ppg, 326 total yards per game, and 141.6 rushing yards per game. In other words, they can’t stop anyone not named Jacksonville. That’s bad news for the Dawg Pound this weekend.
Cleveland faces a well-rested Philadelphia Eagles team on the road. The birds should be getting back some key players following their Bye Week, and that’s going to be trouble for this underperforming Browns squad.
Why We Like The Eagles
The Eagles come into this weekend’s matchup with a 2-2 record after losing badly in Week 4 at Tampa Bay. Philly was crushed by the Buccaneers 33 to 16. And, really, that game wasn’t even as close as the score indicates.
With that said, it must be stated that the Eagles were without their two best receivers in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Both wideouts should be back this weekend and we should see a more lethal Eagles offense.
Despite the glaring holes that Smith and Brown left behind, the Eagles offense was still buoyed by Saquon Barkley leading a rushing attack that averages 153.8 yards per game on the season. That’s the 5th best average in the league. And, Barkley is proving to be a steal by Philly this offseason.
With Brown and Smith back, that will keep extra defenders from crowding the box, which should allow more room for Barkley to run the ball. Considering that the Browns allow 141.6 yards per game, Philly should have a lot of success on the ground this weekend. In fact, they could surpass the 215 rushing yards that the Commanders just put on the Browns last Sunday.
Having Smith and Brown back will also help Jalen Hurts out big time. When they both played in Week 1, Hurts finished with 278 passing yards and two TDs. And, one of those TDs went to Brown.
In two of the three games without Brown, Hurts didn’t even surpass 185 passing yards. Without Smith and Brown in Week 4, Hurts threw for 158 yards.
Last weekend, the Browns gave up 238 passing yards to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. I can see Hurts coming close to that mark.
Look for the Eagles to have a monster offensive performance against an awful Cleveland Browns team. Take Philly to easily win this game outright at home over a franchise that’s dangerously heading into a tailspin, which could result in firing coaches and benching players like Watson.
NFL Parlay Pick 2: Falcons (-230) vs. Panthers (+190)
One of the teams that the Eagles lost to in September was the Atlanta Falcons. And, we really like the Dirty Birds this weekend at Carolina. The only reason that we didn’t make this a 5/5 confidence rating is because it is a divisional game and sometimes those contests can be really tight.
With that said, the Falcons are a great play this weekend as they battle the lowly Carolina Panthers who were just blown out by the Chicago Bears.
Sure, I expect a better performance from the Panthers this weekend as they’re more familiar with Atlanta than Chicago, but I don’t see Andy Dalton leading his rag-tag bunch of teammates to a surprise victory like he did in Las Vegas.
That’s not a slight towards Dalton or the offense, it really comes down to the fact that Carolina has a terrible defense. In fact, they’re one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Panthers are dead last in points allowed at 33.0 ppg. They’ve given up 34 or more points in three of their four losses. If it weren’t for the Carolina offense chewing up the Raiders defense in Week 3, they would’ve lost that game as well since the Panthers defense gave up 22 points.
With that said, the Panthers give up the 5th most yards per game at 371.2 ypg, the most TDs per game at 4.0, allow the most TDs in the red zone at 87.5 percent, and allow the 6th most rushing yards at 144.6 ypg.
Enter the Atlanta Falcons who have found their mojo after two straight divisional victories over the Saints and Buccaneers. They put up a monstrous offensive performance in Week 5 against the Buccaneers on TNF and this team is poised to duplicate that against the Panthers in Sunday’s late window.
Why We Like The Falcons
Atlanta just put up 550 total yards against Tampa Bay as Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards and four TDs to just one INT. Atlanta’s three top receiving options all had their best games of the season so far. Drake London led the charge with 12 receptions for 154 yards and one TD.
Darnell Mooney had a career-best performance as he caught nine receptions for 105 yards and two TDs. Even the previously underwhelming tight end Kyle Pitts caught seven passes for 88 yards. The two running backs combined for six catches as well. In other words, it was a complete aerial assault against the Bucs.
Now, this offensive powerhouse faces a defense that gives up 226.6 passing yards per game and is the third worst team in generating sacks. Cousins should have plenty of time to throw the ball, which means the veteran QB will shred this Carolina secondary.
Keep in mind, this is the same Panthers secondary that just gave up 304 passing yards and two TDs to rookie Caleb Williams last weekend in Chicago.
I fully expect Cousins and this Atlanta offense to steamroll the Panthers. It could also be a game where the struggling Falcons running game gets back on track as we see a 100-yard performance from the highly talented Bijan Robinson.
Atlanta is 9-4 SU in their last 13 meetings against the Panthers. Additionally, they’re 4-2 in their last six trips to Carolina. However, they have lost two in a row on the road in this series. Once again, reminding us that division games are tough.
With that said, the Falcons are a far superior team than they were the last two seasons and better than the Panthers are this season.
NFL Parlay Pick 3: Jaguars (+110) vs. Bears (-130)
If this game was being played in Chicago, I would say that the Jaguars have no shot at winning. With that said, this game will take place in London and I expect Jacksonville to have a moderate amount of success. Yet, don’t confuse that to mean I think they will win.
I believe the Chicago Bears will win this game and they will do so because they have the better defense than the Jaguars do. Let’s talk a bit about this atrocious Jacksonville defense first. Then, we’ll compare their futility with Chicago’s successful defensive unit.
Jacksonville’s defense gives up 28.6 ppg, which is the third most points allowed in the league. They just gave up 34 points to the Indianapolis Colts last weekend. Additionally, they gave up 47 points to the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. That’s 81 points allowed in two of their last three matchups.
The Jaguars have a decent run defense that allows only 105.6 ypg. However, that’s not the Bears’ strength, as they rely more on throwing the ball with Caleb Williams.
The rookie QB is starting to get more comfortable with the speed of the NFL game and his teammates. Boosting Williams’ chances this weekend is the fact that Jacksonville has the worst pass defense at 287.8 ypg.
Backup QB Joe Flacco got the start for Indy last weekend and put up 359 yards along with three TDs in defeat. I believe Williams could come close to his output from Week 5 against the Panthers where he had two TDs and over 300 yards through the air.
The Jaguars have the 6th fewest number of sacks and they have barley forced any turnovers on the season. The Jags are allowing opposing QBs to complete 69.52% of their passes, which bodes well for Williams.
But, that’s not all.
The Jaguars are the third worst defense in the red zone as they allow opposing teams to score TDs in 70.59% of their red zone trips. And, they give up the fourth most TDs per game (3.2).
For a Bears offense that is starting to find some rhythm and confidence, that’s bad news for the Jacksonville defense.
Why We Like The Bears
Chicago has won three of the last four matchups against the Jaguars. But the biggest reason why we like them this weekend, even if it’s in London, is that their defense should win the matchup against Jacksonville’s offense.
The Bears allow just 17 ppg, which is 5th best in the league. The Jaguars score only 19.4 ppg but have had three games where they scored 17 or fewer points.
The Bears are 6th against the pass (174 yards per game) and are Top 10 in sacks. They’ve also forced the 4th highest number of interceptions. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence only has two interceptions on the year. But I see him turning the ball over at least once this weekend.
Jacksonville’s run game is their biggest threat as they average 126.2 ypg (11th). The Bears allow 120.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks in the middle of the pack. So, there’s a chance that the Jaguars find some success on the ground.
If they end up behind the sticks, and in obvious passing downs, then the Bears will feast on Lawrence and the Jacksonville offensive line.
As long as Williams takes care of the ball, this Chicago offense should put up a similar performance as they did against the Panthers last weekend. The Jaguars have shown very little success in stopping good offenses or scoring enough points on good defenses. Chicago appears to have both.
NFL Parlay Pick 4: Texans (-300) vs. Patriots (+240)
The Houston Texans are coming off a last-second win against the Buffalo Bills in a thrilling battle on their home field. Although they struggled on offense at times, a game against the New England Patriots should fix all woes and cure any ailments on both sides of the ball.
The Patriots have a decent defense but this unit is on the field for far too long, which ends up hurting them in the end. A big reason for this is because New England has arguably the worst offense in the entire league.
We’ll get into that unit in the section below. The marquee matchup will be Houston’s offense versus the Patriots defense.
The Patriots allow just 20.4 ppg, which is solid considering how much they’re on the field. They only allow 1.8 TDs per game, which often keeps the team in these contests. Houston is only averaging 2.0 TDs per game. And they’ve been limited running the ball with Joe Mixon out due to an injury.
If the Texans can get Mixon back, they will have greater success on the road against the Patriots. If they don’t get Mixon back, then it could be another pedestrian performance in regards to running the ball.
With that said, Houston’s passing attack is #1 in the league at 272.4 yards per game. The Patriots allow 239 yards per game through the air, which is the 7th most in the league.
I fully expect the Texans to lean on their strength, which is the arm of quarterback CJ Stroud. Houston has numerous weapons in the passing game and that will cause problems for the Patriots defense as they won’t be able to cover all of the weapons like: Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz.
New England’s pass defense allowed San Francisco’s Brock Purdy to throw for 288 yards in Week 4 and Seattle’s Geno Smith to throw for 327 yards in Week 3. I fully expect Stroud to surpass Purdy’s output and flirt with Smith’s total.
Why We Like The Texans
Houston’s passing attack is the second biggest reason why we like the Texans to win this weekend. However, the biggest reason is the fact that the Patriots’ offense is terrible. In fact, this offense is one of the worst that I’ve seen in many years.
New England scores 12.4 ppg (31st), earns 250.8 total yards per game (31st), has the worst red zone efficiency at 30.77% touchdown conversion, scores the second fewest TDs per game a 1.2, and has the worst passing unit in the league at 119.4 yards per game.
Houston allows just 154 passing yards per game, which is the 3rd best in the league. The Patriots do have a solid run game at 131.4 yards per game (9), but it doesn’t matter on the scoreboards because opposing defenses stuff the box, force New England into passing downs and then squash all hope.
The Patriots allow the third highest sack percentage in the league, and the Texans are sixth in sacks accumulated.
The only way Houston loses this game is self-destruction. And, that’s in the form of turning the ball over at a two-to-one ratio compared to the Patriots and/or too many penalties that takes points off the board or allows New England to extend drives.
With that said, I don’t see either scenario happening. Even a less than 100% Houston Texans team can still walk into Foxboro and pick up the win. It might not be as pretty as we would want it, but it’s going to be a victory.
NFL Parlay Total Payout
If you decide to take all four legs of our parlay, a $100 wager will net you $323.08 in winnings and a total payout of $423.08.
The Philadelphia Eagles are our top bet for Week 6 and that’s because they’re getting key playmakers back in wide receivers Smith and Brown. Can you imagine if a team like the Bengals had both receivers out? They would be winless. Same can be said for most teams.
Yet, the Eagles are 2-2. Plus, they’re coming off a Bye Week which means Philly will be rejuvenated, healthy and eager to beat up on an awful Cleveland Browns team.
The Atlanta Falcons should have very little problems with the lowly Carolina Panthers this weekend. Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta passing game has become one of the best in the league and I fully expect that to continue in Carolina as the Panthers have one of the worst defenses in the entire National Football League.
I really like the betting value with the Chicago Bears this weekend, even with the game being in London. That Chicago defense is going to give Lawrence and the rest of the Jacksonville offense plenty of fits. On the flip side, I see Caleb Williams flirting with another 300-yard passing performance against one of the worst passing defenses in the league.
Lastly, the Houston Texans will roll into Foxboro and beat up on the worst offense in the NFL and one of the worst passing defenses in the league. I fully expect CJ Stroud to have a big game and for the Houston defense to hold New England’s pathetic offense to 13 points or less.
