The Buffalo Bills are the favorite to win the AFC Championship at +395 on DraftKings, as ESPN listed the market on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. The Kansas City Chiefs are +440, the Baltimore Ravens +520 and the New England Patriots +570, and those four carry 60.7% of the board.
Week 6 is over. Buffalo won 33-30 at Las Vegas, Kansas City beat the Chargers 22-6 to stay the AFC’s only unbeaten team at 5-0, and Baltimore lost 13-10 at Cleveland. Jacksonville, fourth on October 17, lost 34-31 to Houston at Wembley Stadium and is now fifth at +600.
AFC Championship odds for all 16 teams
| Team | Record | Price | Implied chance | Share of board | October 17 | September 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 5-1 | +395 | 20.2% | 17.6% | +430 | +375 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-0 | +440 | 18.5% | 16.1% | +440 | +485 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-2 | +520 | 16.1% | 14.0% | +435 | +460 |
| New England Patriots | 4-2 | +570 | 14.9% | 13.0% | +690 | +840 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-2 | +600 | 14.3% | 12.4% | +475 | +1175 |
| Denver Broncos | 4-2 | +1000 | 9.1% | 7.9% | +990 | +1200 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3-2 | +1025 | 8.9% | 7.7% | +1025 | +670 |
| Houston Texans | 2-4 | +1700 | 5.6% | 4.8% | +2500 | +1125 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-2 | +3300 | 2.9% | 2.6% | +3900 | +2800 |
| Cleveland Browns | 4-2 | +10500 | 0.9% | 0.8% | +13500 | +20000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3-3 | +12500 | 0.8% | 0.7% | +8800 | +7200 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-4 | +13000 | 0.8% | 0.7% | +7200 | +5300 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-6 | +20000 | 0.5% | 0.4% | +20000 | +2500 |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-5 | +20000 | 0.5% | 0.4% | +20000 | +20000 |
| New York Jets | 2-4 | +20000 | 0.5% | 0.4% | +15000 | +13500 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0-5 | +20000 | 0.5% | 0.4% | +20000 | +20000 |
DraftKings prices from its AFC winner market, as ESPN carried them at 05:51 UTC on October 20, 2026. Records are ESPN’s standings at that read, with all six weeks played: Cincinnati and Miami had their byes in Week 6 and have played five games, the rest six. The October 17 column is the same market at 11:41 UTC that day, and the September 24 column is the price this page showed on that date.
To turn a plus price into a break-even rate, divide 100 by the price plus 100: +395 comes to 20.2%. The 16 rates total 115.0%, and the 15 points past 100 are the bookmaker’s cut. The share column removes that cut by dividing each rate by the total, which leaves Buffalo at 17.6%, Kansas City at 16.1% and Baltimore at 14.0%.
We name no pick in this market. A futures bet makes sense only when your own estimate for a team beats its implied chance, and with five teams between +395 and +600 the board gives little away at the top.
What has moved on the AFC board
Jacksonville has moved the most since October 17: +475 then, +600 now, 3.1 points of implied chance gone after the loss in London. Baltimore went from +435 to +520 after the defeat in Cleveland, and New England came in from +690 to +570 after beating the Jets 26-19 for a third straight win.
Buffalo shortened from +430 to +395. Kansas City has not moved at +440, and Denver, which has not played since Thursday’s overtime win over Seattle, went from +990 to +1000. Houston came in from +2500 to +1700 after the London win, its second in a row.
Against September 24 the Jaguars are still the biggest riser, from +1175 to +600. The Chargers have gone the other way, from +2500 to +20000, and are 0-6 after the loss in Kansas City. Since October 17 Indianapolis has drifted from +7200 to +13000 after losing 26-20 at home to Tennessee, and Las Vegas from +8800 to +12500 after three straight losses.
The AFC seeds as they stand
| Seed | Team | Record | Division | Price to win the AFC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5-0 | AFC West | +440 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 5-1 | AFC East | +395 |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-2 | AFC South | +600 |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns | 4-2 | AFC North | +10500 |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 4-2 | AFC East | +570 |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 4-2 | AFC West | +1000 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-2 | AFC North | +3300 |
Seeds are ESPN’s at the same read, after 93 games across the league. The four division leaders take seeds 1 to 4 and three wild cards fill 5 to 7.
Six AFC teams are 4-2, and ESPN’s order puts five of them in the seven: Jacksonville third, Cleveland fourth as the AFC North leader, New England fifth, Denver sixth and Pittsburgh seventh. Baltimore is the sixth of them and sits eighth, level with Pittsburgh on record.
The board reads those teams very differently. Cleveland, the fourth seed, is +10500, the tenth price of the 16, while Baltimore, outside the seven today, has the third price at +520. Pittsburgh holds the last seed at +3300 after winning 26-19 in overtime at Tampa Bay.
The next game for each AFC contender
| Team | Price | Place | Next game | Kickoff (ET) | DraftKings line | Our page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | +395 | Seed 2 | Ravens at Bills (Week 8, after the bye) | Sun, November 1, 1:00 pm | not listed | |
| Chiefs | +440 | Seed 1 | Chiefs at Seahawks | Sun, October 25, 8:20 pm | Seahawks -2.5, total 42.5 | |
| Ravens | +520 | 8th, level with the seventh seed | Bengals at Ravens | Sun, October 25, 1:00 pm | Ravens -3, total 51.5 | |
| Patriots | +570 | Seed 5 | Patriots at Bears | Thu, October 22, 8:15 pm | Bears -3, total 50.5 | |
| Jaguars | +600 | Seed 3 | Colts at Jaguars (Week 8, after the bye) | Sun, November 1, 1:00 pm | not listed | |
| Broncos | +1000 | Seed 6 | Broncos at Cardinals | Sun, October 25, 4:05 pm | Broncos -4.5, total 43.5 | Broncos at Cardinals prediction |
| Bengals | +1025 | 9th, 0.5 back | Bengals at Ravens | Sun, October 25, 1:00 pm | Ravens -3, total 51.5 | |
| Texans | +1700 | 13th, 2 back | Giants at Texans | Sun, October 25, 1:00 pm | Texans -10, total 42.5 | Giants at Texans prediction |
The table takes the eight teams at +3000 or shorter, which hold 93.5% of the board. Lines are DraftKings’ from ESPN’s Week 7 and Week 8 scoreboards at the same read, and kickoffs are Eastern time. Where the last column carries a link, it goes to our prediction for that game.
Week 7 opens on Thursday night with New England at Chicago, where the Bears are 3-point favorites. Kansas City is a 2.5-point underdog at Seattle on Sunday night, and Baltimore hosts Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite, two teams from the table meeting. Denver is favored by 4.5 at Arizona, and Houston is the biggest favorite in the table, 10 points at home to the Giants.
Buffalo and Jacksonville have their byes. The Bills return on November 1 at home to Baltimore and the Jaguars the same day at home to Indianapolis, and DraftKings has no line on either game yet.
When the AFC Championship Game is played
The AFC Championship Game is on Sunday, January 31, 2027, the same day as the NFC game. ESPN’s postseason schedule lists the date and no kickoff time yet. The winner goes to Super Bowl LXI on February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
Before it come Wild Card Weekend on January 16 to 18 and the Divisional Playoffs on January 23 and 24. The title game is played at the home stadium of one of its two teams, which is why ESPN lists no venue yet: the place is settled only when the Divisional round is over.
Recent AFC Championship Games
| Season | Date | Winner | Score | Loser | Stadium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | January 25, 2026 | New England Patriots | 10-7 | Denver Broncos | Empower Field at Mile High |
| 2024 | January 26, 2025 | Kansas City Chiefs | 32-29 | Buffalo Bills | Arrowhead Stadium |
| 2023 | January 28, 2024 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17-10 | Baltimore Ravens | M&T Bank Stadium |
| 2022 | January 29, 2023 | Kansas City Chiefs | 23-20 | Cincinnati Bengals | Arrowhead Stadium |
| 2021 | January 30, 2022 | Cincinnati Bengals | 27-24 (OT) | Kansas City Chiefs | Arrowhead Stadium |
New England holds the title after winning 10-7 in Denver last January, and is fourth on this board at +570. Denver is sixth at +1000.
Kansas City played in four of these five games and won three. The visiting team won three of the five, the last one included.
More NFL futures
The other half of the bracket is on our NFC Championship odds page, and the title market is on Super Bowl odds. Each AFC division has a board of its own: the AFC East, AFC North, AFC South and AFC West.
All 32 teams, with their division, conference and Super Bowl prices side by side, are on who makes the NFL playoffs. The NFL playoff betting guide covers the January games themselves, and what is a futures bet covers the bet type.
Every Week 7 game is on the NFL Week 7 odds and predictions page and every game we have called is on the NFL predictions hub. Parlays have a page of their own, the best NFL parlays. To compare books, see the sportsbook reviews, and for paid picks the PicksToday handicappers.