2024-25 NFL AFC Championship Odds and Predictions

Industry’s Best

Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

The Wild Card Round went chalk in the AFC Conference with all four of the top seeded teams winning their games. Well, three of them played and the Kansas City Chiefs sat on their couches watching as they had a Bye Week due to being the #1 seed in the conference.

Both the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills looked dominant in their Wild Card matchups, while the Houston Texans were the most surprising team of the weekend.

The NFC Conference also provided plenty of drama over the Wild Card Weekend, but we’re going to focus only on the AFC in this analysis.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest AFC Championship odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our 2024-25 AFC Championship predictions. . 

AFC Championship Odds

Following the Wild Card Round, the Kansas City Chiefs saw their odds slightly improve to remain as the betting favorites in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens both saw their odds shrink from +275 to +230 and +225 respectively. Lastly, the Houston Texans were the biggest gainers going from +2500 to +1800 following their victory over the Chargers.

AFC Playoff Teams

The following NFL teams are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2024-25 AFC Championship:

Kansas City Chiefs  

At 15-2, the Kansas City Chiefs had a first round bye in the Playoffs due to finishing as the #1 seed in the AFC Conference. Additionally, it earned them home field advantage in the Playoffs. So, as they head into the Divisional Round, the Chiefs will host the Houston Texans in a rematch from their pre-Christmas game.

The Chiefs offense didn’t have the best of seasons this year. They only tallied 22.6 ppg (15^th) and 327.6 ypg (16^th). These are not numbers that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing with Patrick Mahomes leading the charge.

With that said, the Chiefs did get back WR Marquise Brown and RB Isaiah Pacheco which makes this offense much more explosive. In fact, they looked like a new team during the final weeks of the season where both players rejoined the offense.

Where KC excelled most of the year was on the defensive side of the ball. This unit ranked amongst the elite. And, as you saw in the Wild Card Round, the elite defenses showed up and showed out in Philadelphia, Houston, Baltimore and Buffalo.

On the season, Kansas City’s defense allowed only 19.2 points per game (4th), 320.6 total yards per game (9th), 2.2 TDs per game (5th), and 101.8 rushing ypg (8th).

When you combine a healthy KC offense led by Patrick Mahomes, with an elite defense, you get arguably the best team in the AFC. Will they have any rust in their Divisional Round matchup? Can they dominate Houston like they did a few weeks ago?

Baltimore Ravens         

The Baltimore Ravens finished the regular season at 12-5, earned the #3 seed in the AFC, won their AFC North Division, and captured four victories in a row as they entered the Playoffs.

Baltimore kept that momentum going with by crushing their divisional rival the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round. The team put up nearly 300 rushing yards on the day. King Henry was unstoppable. In fact, Baltimore looks unbeatable right now.

As mentioned, the Ravens continued to flex their muscles in the Playoffs by leaning on one of the best offenses in the league. Baltimore was 3rd in scoring (30.5 ppg), led the league in total yards (424.9 ypg), was 3rd in third down conversion (48.17%), led the league in rushing yards (187.6 ypg), and was 7th in passing yards (237.4 ypg).

To give you an example of how the Ravens offense continued their domination into the postseason, let’s look at some of the numbers they put up against the Steelers. Baltimore scored 28 points, tallied 474 total yards, rushed for 299 yards and went 10 for 15 on third downs. All of those numbers matched or exceeded their season averages.

Their defense continued playing at a high level too and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the teams in the AFC. Baltimore crushed Buffalo in Week 4 of the season by the score of 35-10. King Henry dominated that Bills defense in that game. Will Baltimore duplicate that early season success in Buffalo for their Divisional Round matchup?

Buffalo Bills 

As the #2 seed in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills earned home games over the first two rounds of the Playoffs as they crushed the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round and will host the Ravens in the Divisional Round.

The Bills dominated what was supposed to be one of the best defenses in the league. In fact, there were many so-called experts who put Buffalo on upset alert. In fact, some of these so-called experts picked the Broncos to win.

Buffalo finished the regular season with one of the best offenses in the league as they were 2nd in scoring (30.9 ppg), 10th in total yards per game (359.1 ypg), 2nd in red zone touchdown conversions (71.64%), 2nd in touchdowns scored per game (3.8 TDs), 9th in rushing yards per game (131.2 ypg), and 9th in passing yards per game (227.9 ypg).

That offense looked even more dominant in their Wild Card game as they finished with 31 points, 471 total yards, dominated the time of possession, tallied 261 passing yards and 210 rushing yards. Allen showed why he’s the leading candidate in the MVP race and James Cook showed why this team has a scary balance unlike previous years.

What also made Buffalo’s performance against the Broncos even more impressive was their defensive dominating a Denver offense. The Broncos scored on the 4^th play of the game and didn’t score another point for the rest of the game.

The Bills held Denver to seven points, 224 total yards, just 13 first downs, and just 79 rushing yards which was Buffalo’s biggest weakness during the final quarter of the regular season.

The win also improved Buffalo’s record to 9-0 at home this year. If the Bills can replicate that Wild Card performance, then they’re going to beat anyone. However, the Ravens are probably the toughest matchup for Buffalo out of any team in the NFL. Can Buffalo remain undefeated at home by defeating the Ravens?

Houston Texans   

So, I have to follow Rex Ryan here by apologizing to the Houston Texans. I thought similarly to Ryan by saying that the Chargers would have an easy game against the Texans and cruise to a victory. I called Houston the worst team in the Playoffs. I’m sorry Houston!

We finally saw the Texans play to their potential on both sides of the ball as they dominated the Chargers by the score for 32 to 12. In fact, it was 20-6 heading into the 4^th quarter and Los Angeles looked helpless against Houston’s defense.

In Week 16 of the season, Houston lost at Kansas City by the score of 27-19. They will get a chance to avenge that loss as they travel to Arrowhead for a Divisional Round matchup versus the Chiefs.

If Houston can play the way they did against the Chargers, then they have a real shot at upsetting the Chiefs. However, that’s a big “if.” And, though I was greatly impressed by what the Texans did at home in the Wild Card round, playing at Kansas City is far more difficult.

With that said, Houston did not play to their full potential against the Chiefs, so there is optimism that this team can improve their on-field performance especially running the ball and stopping the run.

Will Houston pull off a huge upset in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs or will they shrink under the pressure of playing the back-to-back Super Bowl champs?

AFC Divisional Round Matchups

The following is a quick breakdown of the AFC Divisional Round games:

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I don’t see how the Texans will beat the Chiefs. However, I do see Houston playing better than they did last month at Arrowhead Stadium. KC is in a great position to win this game due to getting most of their injured players back and allowing the team to rest over the last few weeks.

I don’t expect any rust due to their championship experience. Additionally, we could see Mahomes and company make a statement to the rest of the NFL with an impressive performance against Houston.

Take the Chiefs to win at home by a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

This is a heavyweight fight and one that every football fan wants to see. It’s too bad that this game isn’t for the AFC Championship because the winner will still have to go to Kansas City to play the Chiefs.

If we look at their Week 4 game and compare the overall strengths vs. weaknesses for these two teams, then you have to side with Baltimore as they match up really well versus Buffalo.

Yet, you have to question whether or not Lamar Jackson can play at a high level on the road in the Playoffs as he has yet to prove he can over his career. Plus, there’s something special that happens when the Bills play in front of their home fans.

Take the Bills to eek out a win in spectacular fashion as this game becomes an instant classic.

Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills

Don’t take Denver lightly. This is a talented defense that will give Buffalo’s offense some problems. With that said, the Bills’ defense should have a solid outing against Bo Nix and this average offense. I expect a few turnovers and several sacks to help provide good field position for the Bills offense.

Additionally, you can expect for Josh Allen to make plays with his legs. He turned on the rushing yards in the second half of the season especially when playing against talented teams like the Chiefs, 49ers, Rams and Lions. Now that it’s the Playoffs, Allen’s gloves come off and the Superman cape goes on.

Take the Bills to win this game by at least a touchdown.

AFC Championship Predictions: Who Wins The AFC?

As mentioned, not only did the Chiefs benefit from a first round bye, but they will also greatly benefit from not having to play both the Ravens and Bills. In fact, they get to face the winner who will most likely be beaten up and wounded.

I like for the Chiefs and Bills to advance to the AFC Championship game. Although, I think the Ravens have about as much chance as the Bills to advance. I think Buffalo gets revenge versus Baltimore and Allen outperforms Jackson.

Ultimately, as I have said since the preseason, until someone beats the Kansas City Chiefs in the Playoffs, you have to wager on them to win the AFC and the Super Bowl.

This is a championship experienced team led by one of the best coaches of all-time and the best quarterback in the NFL. Throw in an elite defense and Taylor Swift paying off the refs (semi joking here), you have the makings of a three-peat.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+140) 

Previous AFC Championship Prop Bets

The following prop bets were listed throughout the season. You can look back at our predictions for these NFL props and how we thought the AFC Conference would play out.

Which Team Will Finish as the AFC #1 Seed?

Currently, the Chiefs lead the Bills and Steelers by one game for the top seed in the AFC. As mentioned, the Chiefs and Steelers play against each other on Christmas Day. Additionally, the Chiefs still play the Texans as well. And, we can’t forget how KC also has two games against the Chargers and Broncos left.

Bottom line, what looked like a cake walk of a division in the preseason is now a tough task for the two-time defending Super Bowl champs.

With that said, you have two options here with this NFL prop bet. You can either stick with the Chiefs to capture the #1 seed in the AFC or you can go with a team that offers better value.

Both the Ravens and Texans each sit with four losses on the season and could easily drop another. They’re far too risky to pick either for this wager. So, the safest approach is choosing between the Chiefs, Bills and Steelers.

Of those three, the Steelers have the best value at +700 odds. Yet, they still have two games versus the Bengals, one more against Baltimore and a Christmas game against the Chiefs. The Bills still have the 49ers, Rams and Lions on the docket.

None of the top teams have an easy remaining schedule. If Buffalo or Pittsburgh lose one more game, then they need KC to lose two more in order to finish in a tie. Do you see KC getting tripped up two more times in their final seven games? That’s the question you must ask yourself.

As of now, I do not see that happening. I think KC could possibly lose to Pittsburgh but still finish a game ahead of the Steelers and Bills to clinch the top seed. And, I’m not sold on the Chargers or Broncos beating the Chiefs either.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-200) 

To Reach 2024-25 AFC Championship Game 

I think it’s smart to automatically pencil the Chiefs into the AFC Championship game. They have played in six straight AFC Championship contests and have gone 4-2 over that span. The only question is which team will meet KC in the title game.  

Over the last four AFC Championship games, the Chiefs have played against the Bills, Bengals twice, and the Ravens last year. KC split with the Bengals in their two AFC Championship games. Those three teams are right behind the Chiefs as the odds-on favorites to make the game.  

Of the Ravens, Bengals and Bills, it’s Baltimore that has the best chance to meet the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game for the second straight year. The Ravens have made some solid moves to improve their team, while the Bills and Bengals have questions to answer before we can put our full confidence in them.  

Houston is one team to watch out for. They could easily beat out the Bengals, Ravens or Bills to meet the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. However, we need to see more from them to ensure they’re going to be a real contender. It’s easy to hunt the favorites as they did last year. It’s a lot harder when you become the hunted.  

As we sit in the summer months before the season even begins, the safest approach to this prop bet is taking the Chiefs and the Ravens based on their Playoff experience and roster additions.  

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+105), Baltimore Ravens (+190) 

Which AFC Division Wins The 2024-25 AFC Championship? 

• AFC North (+140) 

• AFC West (+230) 

• AFC East (+300) 

• AFC South (+425) 

The AFC North is the toughest division in the conference. In fact, it should be the best division in the NFL with four teams that should all have winning records. Let’s not forget that three of the four teams made the Playoffs last year. With a returning Joe Burrow, we could easily see three teams from this division in the Playoffs this year.  

The AFC South is the Texans to lose. The AFC East will be a battle between the Bills, Dolphins and Jets. However, it’s the AFC West that has the defending Super Bowl champ and the AFC team to beat this year. Kansas City got better, while the rest of the teams in the West got worse. I expect the Chiefs to run away with the AFC West, take the top seed in the AFC, and represent the conference in the Super Bowl for the third straight year.  

Bet: AFC West (+230)